《物流金融的风险评估和早期预警系统[文献翻译].doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《物流金融的风险评估和早期预警系统[文献翻译].doc（9页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance出 处：2008年国际会议论文集IEEE服务运作，物流及信息 作 者：Xiao MeiDan, Li Ye, Liu Bin 原文：Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance Abstract-Logistics finance is an innovative financial solution which combines goods flow with
2、funds flow, with diverse benefits that appeal to buyers, sellers, logistics enterprises and commercial banks. For example, Commercial banks can widen service ranges and enlarge the loans with lower risks and small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain working capital and speed up their development
3、. Logistics finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, but the logistics finance has developed in china for only several years and its related mechanisms are still immature, and its participation subjects are diversified, the risk exists in the operation of logi
4、stics finance. Therefore, it is very necessary to present quantitative risk analysis to perform on logistics finance. Keywords-logistics finance, early warning system1. INTRODUCTION Logistics finance is the integration of physical flow and financial flow, with diverse benefits by focusing on servici
5、ng the different needs for logistics enterprises, commercial banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, and insurance companies. Which improves the finance situations through solving the difficulty in financing for small and mediumsized enterprises and in providing loans for commercial banks, and br
6、inging the great opportunities for the development of logistics industry in china. Therefore, logistics finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, the logistics finance has developed in china for only several years and its related mechanisms are still immature,
7、and its participation subjects are diversified, the risk exists in the operation of logistics finance. In china, existing literatures mainly research on the operation risk of trade business and the establishing risk indexes system of logistics finance; it is lacked to the quantitative risk analysis
8、to perform on logistics finance. The problem at present or next stage is to study on risk management of logistics finance in china. For this reasons, we derive the risk assessment and early warning system for logistics finance basing on the comprehensive evaluation of unascertained theory and fuzzy
9、method.2. THE MAIN CRITERIA AND TGEIR HIERARCHICALSTRUCTURE According to the existing research results and Chinese actual situation, this paper selected the following five categories of criteria (BI-BS) as crucial for evaluating the risk for logistics finance in china, These five factors are further
10、 divided into 16 concrete and detailed criteria (ClCl6) as follows: Credit risk of the customer corporation (Bl): Subjects related to the credit status and business scale of customer corporation which would influence on the repayment. This criterion is divided into: (Cl)Professional ability of custo
11、mer enterprise;(C2)Credit rating of customer enterprise. The collateral risk(B2): Terms related to the factors of collateral as they affect the stability of the logistics finance. This criterion includes five factors:(C3)Ownership risk of pledge commodities;(C4) Supervision risk of pledge commoditie
12、s;(CS) Fluctuation risk of market price of collateral;(C6) Liquidation venture of collateral;(C7) Whether buying insurance for pledge commodities. Technical risk(B3): Terms related to advanced technique of logistics enterprises. This criterion is explained by three factors, including:(C8)Conditions
13、for establishing evaluation system of collateral value;(C9)Assessment technique of collateral value;(ClO)Operation technique for collateral. Informatization risk(B4): Subjects related to informatization degree as they influence on information flow. This criterion is divided into:(Cll) Management tec
14、hnique of information system;(CI2) Investment on information. External environment risk(BS): Subjects related to the strategic aspects of macro and micro environment which would affect the stability of logistics finance. This criterion includes four factors:(C13) Macroeconomic policy;(CI4)Prospect o
15、f industry of logistics finance;(CIS)Condition for market change;(C1 6) Legal environment for logistics finance in china.3. METHODO LOGICA L ISSUES According to the meaning of risk, risk R is expressed by the function by combining the occurrence probability of risk event( P) with the consequences ca
16、used by risk event( C). And the occurrence probability of risk event( P) and the consequences caused by risk event( C) are determined by unascertained theory and fuzzy method respectively, finally the total risk would be calculated by synthetic function of value P and value C. After referencing to o
17、ther literatures, risk grade can be classified into three grades. Usually, risk value above 0.7 shows risk grade is higher, when risk value lies between 0.3- 0.7illustrates risk grade is medium, and risk value below 0.3 shows risk grade is lower51. The risk value of the logistics finance in this exa
18、mple is 0.6032 which belongs to 0.3 to 0.7, therefore, the logistics finance risk is medium, but is close to 0.7,requiring commercial banks and logistics enterprise to pay attention to prevent and control risk momentarily. Next, we analyze the risk value of five criteria and put forward the preventi
19、ve measures on risk of logistics finance. Firstly, the risk value of the Credit risk of the customer corporation(B1) is 0.6167 which is close to 0.7, illustrating that the risks of the professional ability of customerenterprise(C1) and the credit rating of customer enterprise(C2) are relatively high
20、,logistics enterprise should strengthen the credit and capability audit and supervision of customer enterprises. When commercial bank or logisticsenterprise choose the coporators, they should avoid those companies which have weak professional ability and high asset-liability ratio, and observe the d
21、efault of customerenterprises in history. Secondly, the risk value of the collateral risk(B2) is 0.4861 shows that its risk degree is medium. Logistics enterprises can reduce the collateral risk by following measures: First of all, logistics enterprise should ensure the owership of collateral, put a
22、n end to those smuggling and defective commodity as collateral; Secondly, it is important to standardize the manipulation process of warehousing to reduce the commodity damaged; Thirdly, Utilizing the advanced methods to forecast the future price of collateral and analyze the stability of collateral
23、 market; Finally, it is also necessary to insure for collateral which is the best measure to disperse risk for logistics enterprise. Thirdly, the risk value of technical risk(B3) is 0.6574 which is near to 0.7, illustrating that the technical risk is relatively higher for this logistics enterprise,
24、so the logistics enterprise should pay more attention to their technical problem. In this paper, the technical problem is mainly refered to (C8)Conditions for establishing evaluation system of collateral value, (C9)Assessment technique of collateral value and (ClO)Operation technique for collateral.
25、 In order to improve the technical problem, logistics enterprise should establish the more resonable risk evaluation system of collateral value by introducing scientific risk management and process, and need to apply the scientific assessment method to evaluate collateral value. Then mechanical oper
26、ation and automation are key aspects to reflect the advanced technical, logistics enterprise could invest these aspects to improve the technical problem. Fourthly, the value of informatization risk(B4) is 0.4286 indicates the risk degree of this criterion is medium. Which shows the informatization l
27、evel of this logistics enterprise is relatively higher, that is the scale and the management level of information system are a certain level. Fifthly, the value of external environment risk(B5) is 0.8975 above 0.7, showing that the risk value of this factor is very high. That is the macroeconomic po
28、licy and corresponding laws and regulations supporting logistics finance are very lack. Therefore, logistics enterprise should make contract with customer enterprises more carefully.4. CONCLUSIONS Risk assessment of logistics project is the important content of risk management, and the logistics pro
29、ject risk is complexity and unascertained, this paper constructed evaluation model basing on unascertained theory and fuzzy method of logistics project risk, the model allows either interval number and absolutely value to describe evaluation data,which is more reasonable and reliable. The proposed a
30、pproaches can also be applied to many other societal problems for risk assessment purposes.本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance出 处：2008年国际会议论文集IEEE服务运作，物流及信息 作 者：Xiao MeiDan, Li Ye, Liu Bin 译 文：物流金融的风险评估和早期预警系统摘要Introductionzaiyao摘要物流金融是一种创新的金融服务，这种金融服务结合了货物流
31、与资金流，随之带来的不同的利益吸引买家，卖家，物流企业和商业银行。例如，商业银行可以扩大服务范围、增加低风险的贷款，中小型企业可以取得营运资金并加快其发展。最近，物流金融收到了学术界和企业的高度重视，但物流金融的发展在中国只有几年及其相关机制还不成熟，其参与主体多元化，随之而来的风险存在于物流金融的运作中。因此，目前对物流金融的风险定量分析是非常有必要的。关键词：物流金融，早期预警系统一、 引言 物流金融融合了物理流程和资金流，通过聚集服务业中物理企业、商业银行、中小企业和保险公司的不同需求，带来了不同的利益。物流金融这种金融机构通过商业银行提供的贷款解决了中小企业融资难的问题，并给中国的的物
32、流业的发展带来了巨大的机遇。因此，物流金融收到了学术界和商界的高度重视，但物流金融的发展在中国只有几年及其相关机制还不够成熟，其参与主体多元化，随之而来的风险存在于物流金融运作中。在中国，现有的文献主要研究贸易业务操作中的风险并建立物流金融风险指标系统，它缺乏对物流金融的定量风险分析。在中国，目前或下一阶段的问题是研究物流金融在管理方面的风险。 由于这些原因，我们在未确知综合评价理论和模糊方法的基础上得出了物流金融的风险评估和早期预警系统。二、 主要的标准和层次结构 根据现有的研究成果和中国实际情况，本文选择了以下五个标准（BI-BS）类别作为评价中国物流金融风险的关键，这五个因素进一步划分为
33、16个具体和详细的标准（ClCl6）如下： 对客户的信用风险公司（B1）: 相关的资信状况和经营规模的主体这将影响客户对公司的还款。这个标准分为：（C1）客户企业的专业能力;（C2）客户企业的信用评级。 抵押品的风险（B2）：涉及抵押品的因素而言，根据它们影响物流金融的稳定性。这个标准包括五个因素：（C3）抵押权的风险商品;（C4）的监管风险抵押商品;（CS）的市场价格波动的风险抵押品;（C6）的抵押品清算企业;（C7）是否为保证商品的购买保险。技术风险（B3）：有关物流的先进技术条款企业这个标准的解释是三个因素，其中包括：（C8）建立评估系统条件抵押品价值;（C9）评估抵押品技术价值;（C1
34、0）技术操作的抵押品。信息化风险（B4）：有关他们的信息化程度的主体对信息流这一标准划分为：（C11）管理的信息技术制度;（C12）在信息方面的投资。外部环境的风险（B5）：有关宏观和微观环境的战略方面的课题，会影响物流金融的稳定性。这个标准包括四个因素：（C13）宏观经济政策；（CI4）展望物流金融业；（C15）市场情况.(C16)在中国，物流金融的法律环境。三、 解决问题的方法 根据风险的含义，风险R是表示通过结合风险发生的概率函数事件（P）的风险与事件和所造成的后果（R）。风险事件发生概率（P）和风险事件造成的后果（C）是由未确知理论和模糊方法分别决定的，最后总风险将通过合成功能计算P和
35、值C值。 经过参考其他文献,风险等级可分为三个等级。通常情况下，风险值高于0.7,显示风险等级较高；当风险值介于0.3-0.7,说明风险等级为中等；当风险值低于0.3，显示风险等级较低。在这个例子中，物流金融的风险价值为0.6032，属于0.3至0.7，因此，物流金融的风险等级是中等的。但接近0.7时，商业银行和物流企业要即刻注意防止和控制风险。 接下来，我们分析了风险评估的五个标准，提出了对物流金融风险的防范措施。首先，对客户信用风险的风险价值公司（B1）的0.6167，接近0.7，说明这对企业的顾客专业能力的风险企业（C1）和对客户的信用评级企业（C2）相对较高，物流企业应加强对客户企业的
36、信用、能力的审计和监督。当商业银行或物流企业选择合作伙伴时，他们应避免选择那些专业能力薄弱的公司，高资产负债率的公司，有客户违约历史的企业。其次，担保品的风险值（B2）为0.4861表明，其危险程度为中等。物流企业可以通过以下措施减少抵押品的风险：首先，物流企业应确保抵押品的所有权，杜绝这些走私等有缺陷的商品作为抵押品。其次，重要的是规范仓储的操作过程，降低商品的损坏程度。第三，利用先进的方法来预测抵押品的未来价格并分析了抵押市场的稳定性。最后，它是还保证抵押必要的措施，是为物流企业分散风险的最好方法。第三，技术风险（B3）的风险值是0.6574，接近0.7，说明对于这个物流企业该技术风险是相
37、对高的，所以物流企业应更加注重提高他们的技术问题。在这个文件中，技术问题，主要是指（C8的）条件，建立评估抵押物的价值系统，（C9）评估抵押物价值和（C10）的操作技术方法的抵押品。为了提高技术问题，物流企业应建立科学的风险管理方法，引入和处理抵押品价值更合理的风险评估体系，运用科学的评估方法来评估抵押物的价值。然后，要在机械操作和自动化的关键方面反映先进技术，这样物流企业可以投资，以改善这些方面的技术问题。 第四，信息化风险（B4）值是0.4286表明了该标准的风险程度为中等。这表明这个物流企业的信息化水平相对较高，规模和信息系统的管理水平达到一定的水平。 第五，外部环境风险（B5）值在0.7以上为0.8975，显示出这一因素的风险价值非常高。这是因为宏观经济政策和相应的法律、法规配套物流金融的极度缺乏。因此，物流企业应与客户企业签订更仔细的合同。 四、 结论 物流项目风险评估是风险管理的重要内容，物流项目风险是复杂的和未确定的，本文构建未确知评价模型的基础理论和模糊物流项目风险的方法，该模型允许使用区间和绝对价值评估数来估计数据，这是较为合理和可靠的。 上述建议的方法也可以应用到很多其他社会问题的风险评估中。