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1、2021年全球医学趋势调查报告 G iv en tha t 2 0 2 0 w as an e x tr aordinar y y ear globally due to the pandemic, mos t coun tries ar e seeing a decrease in tr end fr om 2 0 19 to 2 0 2 0 . S ome coun tries ar e e v en e xpecting a nega tiv e tr end f or 2 0 2 0 . About the sur v e y Willis T o w ers W a ts on co
2、nducts the Global Medic al T r ends Surv e y ev ery y ear be t w een July and Sep t ember . T w o hundr ed and eigh ty -s ev en leading insur ers r epr es en ting 7 6 coun tries participa t ed in our 20 21 surv e y . Global r esults pr es en t ed her e ha ve been weigh t ed using GDP per c apita. Th
3、e U . S . medical tr end da ta ar e dr a wn fr om the Willis T o w ers W a ts on Na tional T r end Surv e y r es ear ch. Figur e 1: P ar ticipan t pr o file Ov er vie w CO VID- 19 has undoub t edly had a major impact on pr oject ed medical tr ends f or 2021 and 20 21. Given tha t 2021 w as an e xtr
4、aor dinary y ear globally due t o the pandemic, mos t coun tries ar e s eeing a decr eas e in tr end fr om 20 19 t o 2021 . Some coun tries ar e ev en e xpecting a nega tiv e tr end f or 2021 . Man y insur ers and emplo y ers ar e r eporting a decr easing tr end in claims r a tio in 2021 , as mos t
5、nonur gen t tr ea tmen ts and sur geries w er e dela y ed especially be t w een Mar ch and A ugus t . In turn, thes e dela y s cr ea t ed a need f or s ome priv a t e f acilities t o mak e up f or los t r ev enue in 2021 . The Willis T o w ers W a ts on CO VID- 19 claims modeler sugges ts signific a
6、n t vola tility in 20 21 r esults, which ar e dependen t on the impact o f CO VID- 19 and whe ther or no t a vaccine becomes a v ailable early in the y ear , who pa y s f or it and the e x t en t o f its a v ailability . In addition, ther e is uncertain ty about how CO VID- 19 t es ting and tr ea tm
7、en t cos ts f or 20 21 will con tinue t o be split be t w een gov ernmen t , insur ers and emplo y ers. F urther uncertain ty ar ound medical tr end lies ahead in futur e y ears as w e s tart t o s ee the true impact o f dela y ed tr ea tmen t in 2021 and the long-t erm e ff ects on thos e who con t
8、r act ed CO VID- 19 . Ne v ertheless, ther e is a silv er lining her e , as CO VID- 19 has gr ea tly acceler a t ed the adop tion and us e o f t elehealth, which, in turn, could help t o o ff s e t thos e po t en tial 2 willis to w ers w a t son. com higher cos ts and pr ovide a mor e e fficien t w
9、a y f or insur eds t o access and us e health c ar e in the futur e . It ma y als o , o f cours e , incr eas e utiliza tion due t o eas e o f access. A sia P acific Ov er all, w e e xpect pr ojected global tr end to dr op to belo w 6% in 2 0 2 0 be f or e r ebounding back to abo v e 8% f or 2 0 2 1
10、due to the c a tch- up on dela y ed tr ea tmen t , po ten tially leading to worsening health conditions and some unexpected cos t incr eases coming thr ough, such as those f or personal pr o tectiv e equipmen t (PPE). Figur e 2: How do y ou e xpect the medic al tr end in y our o v er all book o f bu
11、sines s to change o v er the ne x t thr ee y ears compar ed to curr en t r a tes ? 0 Global China . CO VID- 19 has no t had as much impact on cos t or utiliza tion in China as it has in o ther coun tries. The cos ts o f medical c ar e con tinue t o incr eas e f or tr ea tmen ts, particularly thos e
12、outside the s cope o f s ocial s ecurity cov er age . The cen tr al gov ernmen t is planning t o elimina t e the individual medical accoun t and a t the s ame time o ffer cov er age f or outpa tien t e xpens es under s ocial s ecurity . The initiativ e w as announced in Sep t ember 2021 , with mor e
13、 de tails t o come on cov er age . This is e xpect ed t o impact the cos t o f tr ea tmen t in the futur e; how ev er , it will pr obably tak e a while f or the initiativ e t o be fully implemen t ed given the v aria tion in gov ernmen t funding a t the pr o vincial le v el. Hong K ong. The lo w uti
14、liza tion o f medical s ervices during the pandemic and the r ecession f or ec as t ed b y the gov ernmen t ar e the t w o main driv ers o f the slo w do wn in medical tr end f or Latin Americ a Asia P acific Europe Middle East and A fric a 1% 3% 1% Significantly lowe r 4% 1% 2% L owe r About the sa
15、me 2021 and 20 21. Demand f or medical t ourism fr om mainland China has als o dr opped due t o the tr a v el r es trictions and s ocial unr es t in Hong K ong. Higher Significantly higher 54% Global Medic al T r end 3 30% 63 % 37 % 71% 21 % 6% 39% 49% 11% 11% 87% The r egion sho w s a signific an t
16、 dr op in tr end t o 6 .2 % in 2021 , but this will spring back abo ve the 20 19 tr end t o a pr oject ed 8.5 % in 20 21. % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 3% 4% Figur e 3: G lobal a v er age medic al tr end r a tes b y coun tr y , 2 0 19 2 0 2 1 C oun tr y G r os s cos t tr end Ne t cos t tr end (o f gener al
17、 in flation) 2 01 9 2021 2 02 1 2 01 9 2021 2 02 1 Global 7 .1 6 5.88 8. 12 5. 13 4. 60 6 .1 7 La tin Americ a 10 .83 8 .97 13. 63 5 .7 5 6. 62 11. 17 North Americ a 5.55 2 .7 6 7 .1 3 3. 65 2. 15 5.50 A sia P acific 7. 4 7 6 .22 8.50 5.88 5. 10 6. 78 E ur ope 5.58 4.2 4 5 .7 6 4 .0 2 3.27 4. 15 Mid
18、dle Eas t/ A fric a 8. 65 8. 66 1 0.0 1 7 .39 6 .9 4 6 .9 8 L a tin Americ a Ar gen tina * 56 . 99 4 7 .29 60 .50 3. 44 28.85 4 7. 7 5 Barbados and Eas t Caribbean 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 5. 90 5.54 8.39 Br azil* 11. 96 9 .38 11.5 1 8.23 5.82 8.21 Chile* 4.88 3. 18 4 .07 2. 63 -0 . 19 1. 14 Colombia
19、 * 6 .27 6. 89 6. 92 2 .7 5 3.38 3. 71 Cos ta Ric a * 7. 00 8. 00 9 .25 4. 90 6 .4 6 7. 00 E cuador 12. 00 12. 00 12. 00 11. 73 12. 0 1 10 .84 El Salv ador * 7. 4 3 1 0.0 0 7. 7 1 7 .35 9. 94 7 .1 1 Gua t emala * 8. 00 8.83 11.8 0 4.30 7. 00 1 0.0 2 Hondur as * 6 .1 7 7. 9 8 9 .67 1.8 0 4.83 6. 69 M
20、e xico * 9 .30 11.50 11. 71 5. 66 8.8 0 8. 93 Nicar agua 1 0.0 0 12. 00 15. 00 4 .6 2 7 .53 11. 04 P anama * 1 0 .67 11. 00 9 .4 0 11. 0 2 11. 91 8. 90 P eru 5. 00 6 .0 0 8. 00 2.8 6 4.29 6 .21 Puert o Rico 5. 00 -6 . 00 18. 00 4.27 -4. 45 17 .36 T rinidad and T obago 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 9 .0 0
21、11. 00 8. 72 V ene zuela 85. 00 150 . 00 250 . 00 - 19821. 0 2 - 14850 . 00 - 14 7 50 . 00 Nor th Americ a Canada 4. 17 0 .1 3 7. 0 3 2.22 - 0.4 8 5 .7 6 Unit ed Stat es# 7. 9 1 7. 2 4 7 .30 6 .1 0 6. 62 5. 06 A sia P acific A us tr alia 6 .50 6 .0 0 6 .0 0 4.8 9 4.5 7 4. 18 China * 8. 68 9 .1 0 9 .
22、32 5 .7 8 6 .0 6 6 .7 7 Hong K ong* 8. 16 6 . 24 6 .6 8 5.30 4.2 4 4. 18 India * 7. 8 0 12. 00 1 0.0 0 3.26 8. 66 6 .38 Indonesia* 10 .33 9 .97 12. 00 7. 5 1 7 .1 0 9 .0 6 Mala y sia * 10 . 64 10 .82 12.55 9 .97 10 . 71 9 .7 5 Ne w Z ealand 5. 60 - 2. 00 2 0.0 0 3. 98 -3.22 18. 6 2 Philippines * 7.
23、7 5 8.50 8.82 5.27 6. 78 5. 94 Singapor e * 7. 6 7 7. 6 7 8. 17 7 .1 0 7 .84 7. 6 5 South K or ea 7. 00 5. 00 4. 00 6. 62 4. 73 3.55 Sri Lank a 5. 00 5. 00 5. 00 0 .7 0 0 .34 0 .35 T aiw an * 4. 00 4. 00 4. 00 3. 46 3.50 2.50 Thailand 7. 00 7 .50 8. 00 6 .29 8.56 7. 44 Vie tnam * 12. 93 10 . 13 10 .
24、 15 10 . 13 6 .9 3 6 .25 4 willis to w ers w a t son. com C oun tr y G r os s cos t tr end Ne t cos t tr end (o f gener al in flation) 2 01 9 2021 2 02 1 2 01 9 2021 2 02 1 E ur ope B elgium 2. 00 2.50 3. 00 0 .7 5 2.25 1. 91 Cyprus 5. 00 0.0 0 1. 00 4. 44 - 0 .7 0 0.0 0 Denmark 5.50 6 .50 4.50 4 .7
25、 7 5.8 0 3.30 F r ance 4. 17 1. 03 2.30 2.8 7 0 .7 5 1. 60 German y 5. 00 7. 00 7. 00 3. 65 6 .6 8 5.82 Gr eece 4.50 4.50 4 .7 5 3. 98 4. 96 3 . 74 Hungary 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 6 .6 3 6 .6 6 6 .83 Ir eland 4 .47 1. 43 8.33 3.5 9 1. 03 6 .6 3 Norw a y * 5.27 5. 99 6 .4 3 3. 10 3.5 9 4.23 P oland*
26、5.85 6 .50 7 .33 3.54 3.28 4 .7 5 P ortugal* 3 .7 9 - 1.83 3 .97 3. 49 - 1. 63 2 .6 2 R omania * 12. 6 2 10 .33 11.50 8 .7 9 8 .0 9 1 0.0 5 Russia 7.25 1 0.0 0 11. 00 2 .7 8 6 .9 1 8 .0 1 Serbia 7 .50 7 .50 15. 00 5. 65 6 .0 6 13. 06 Spain 2.85 1. 93 4 .7 5 2. 15 2.23 4. 10 S w eden 9 .0 0 6 .0 0 7
27、.50 7 .30 5.54 5 .97 S witz erland 4. 00 1.50 1. 00 3. 64 1.8 9 0.4 0 T urk e y 23.25 17 .50 16 . 00 8 .07 5.50 4. 00 Unit ed Kingdom 5 .67 6 .33 6 .50 3.88 5. 15 4. 96 Middle Eas t and A fric a Bahr ain 7. 00 7. 00 7. 00 6 .0 0 4. 40 4.50 Burkina F as o 0 .50 15. 00 1 0.0 0 3. 73 11.8 0 7. 9 0 Came
28、r oon * 3.50 6 .25 4. 00 1. 05 3. 45 1 .7 5 Co t e d"Iv oir e 15. 00 15. 6 7 18.33 14. 19 14. 4 7 16 . 93 E gyp t* 12. 13 10 .88 12.33 -1 . 7 4 5.0 2 4. 10 Gabon 19 .50 21.50 25. 00 17 . 48 18.50 22. 00 Ghana 12. 17 14. 6 7 17 . 17 4. 96 5.0 1 8 .6 2 Guinea 1 0.0 0 5. 00 3. 00 0 .53 -3.50 -5. 0
29、0 Jor dan 7. 00 0.0 0 4. 00 6 .7 0 -0 .20 2. 40 Ke n y a 8.50 6 .50 9 .0 0 3.30 1. 40 4. 00 K uwait 5. 00 7 .50 1 0.0 0 3. 90 7. 00 7. 7 0 Madagas c ar 25. 00 2 0.0 0 3 0.0 0 19 .38 14.50 23.50 Mo zambique 7. 00 5. 00 5. 00 4.22 -0 . 19 -0 . 71 Nigeria 17 .33 14. 6 7 18. 6 7 5. 94 1.27 6 .30 Oman 4.
30、50 4.50 5.50 4.3 7 3.50 2. 10 Saudi Ar abia 1 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 12. 00 11.21 9 .1 3 1 0.04 Senegal 1 0.0 0 15. 00 15. 00 8. 98 13. 00 13. 0 8 South A fric a 6 .50 6 .0 0 6 .0 0 2.3 7 3.5 7 2.84 T ogo 5. 00 8. 00 1 0.0 0 4.31 6 .0 0 8. 00 Uganda 2 0.0 0 1 0.0 0 15. 00 17 . 13 6 .0 6 10 . 15 Unit ed Ar ab Emir a t es 9 .0 0 8. 00 8. 00 10 . 93 9 .0 0 6 .50 Z ambia 15. 00 2 0.0 0 25.