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1、长期风险与金融新秩序,Fundamental Long-Term Risks And the New Financial Order,Prof. Robert J. ShillerYale University,长期风险与金融新秩序,Financial Modernization,Fundamental role of financial institutionsManage risksMaintain incentivesEffective financial institutions are found in all successful economiesInstitutions mus
2、t continually be adapted to take account of changing nature of risks, new technology,长期风险与金融新秩序,Chinas Spectacular Modernization Since 1990,Established stock marketIssued shares to publicEstablished futures marketsCreated Insurance industryPersonal credit/Mortgage,长期风险与金融新秩序,Speculation,Human impuls
3、e towards gambling, must be directed towards constructive endsCapitalism is a set of rules that redirects the human gambling urge in constructive directionsCapitalism is vulnerable to market-generated instabilities,长期风险与金融新秩序,Chinas Uncertainties,Will the spectacular economic growth continue?As low
4、wage advantage gradually disappears, will be harder to sustain growthPossible disruptions of smooth-functioning economic system can slow growth.Growth of 3% a year vs. 9% a year: means China overall catches up to advanced countries in 90 years instead of 30 years,长期风险与金融新秩序,Economic Inequality,Econo
5、mic incentives must allow for some chance of successand of failureSome inequality is necessaryWorldwide trend towards greater inequality is seen in China as wellChinas Gini coefficient has risen from 0.33 in 1980 to 0.46 in 2000, not just due to farmers incomes,长期风险与金融新秩序,Important Reasons for Growi
6、ng Chinese Inequality,Transition to market economy in China is not making everyone successful at onceNew information technology appears to tend to concentrate wealth (in China and elsewhere)Assembly line workersTranslatorsChess players,长期风险与金融新秩序,Winner-Take-All Effect of Information Technology,Info
7、rmation technology allows search to find the best product, and replication of the best productPhonographs and singersTelevision and actors and athletesRapid acceleration of information technology may create the same effect in many more occupations,长期风险与金融新秩序,Norbert Wiener on Computers, 1948,Compute
8、rs replace fundamental human abilitiesComputer may be “more dangerous than the atom bomb” in that it can destroy jobs and lives,长期风险与金融新秩序,Prominent Financial Issues under Discussion in China,Valuation of the yuanNonperforming loansCapital controlsA second board market,长期风险与金融新秩序,Other Ideas for Fin
9、ancial Innovation,Many changes should be coming in world financial markets that China should adopt tooChina is an innovator in choosing its own path, could set the path for other countriesMy books: Macro Markets, Oxford University Press, 1993, in Chinese 2001, and The New Financial Order: Risk in th
10、e Twentieth Century, Princeton University Press 2003 and Chinese Peoples University Press with Liang Jing Publishing Studios, 2004,长期风险与金融新秩序,Ideas for China,An effective progressive tax and wage subsidy system that addresses inequalityInequality insuranceElectronic money replaces cashNew units of m
11、easurement: indexed units of accountA universal social security system that addresses income and health problems,长期风险与金融新秩序,Ideas for China Continued,Intergenerational risk sharingMacro securities: China sells shares in its GDP to foreignersLivelihood insurance: encourage entrepreneurship on individ
12、ual basisHome equity insurance: manage risks to home values,长期风险与金融新秩序,A More Effectively Progressive Income Tax System and Earned Income Tax Credit,Higher taxation of successful people used to subsidize less successfulSubsidy of less successful is made in terms of a wage subsidy (EITC) to maintain
13、incentives,长期风险与金融新秩序,Inequality Insurance,Tax rates could be indexed to a measure of inequality in such a way that inequality is prevented from worseningCan legislate a tax system that prevents further worseningImplement a plan for such a tax system that will alleviate income inequality in the futu
14、re even if the system cannot be implemented for some time.,长期风险与金融新秩序,Move towards Electronic Money,Cash transactions are hard to taxThoroughgoing use of electronic money in China would make an effective income tax and wage subsidy system feasibleIn US, cash transactions are confined to small items,
15、 newspapers, candy barsElectronic payment systems already here in China: need to expand them,长期风险与金融新秩序,Indexed Money,Once we have a system of electronic money, the money can be indexedInflation-indexed debt allows savers to lock in their future returnsInflation-indexed life annuities allow people t
16、o guarantee their retirementIndexation can be helped by creating new units of measurement: the Unidad de Fomento (UF) of Chile,长期风险与金融新秩序,长期风险与金融新秩序,长期风险与金融新秩序,Social Security System:Old Age Insurance,Social Security is in ferment around the world today because of declining birth rateIn coming decad
17、es, will be large number of elderly relative to working people in China, as in many other countries,长期风险与金融新秩序,Intergenerational Risk Sharing,In many countries, old-aged pension benefits are indexed to inflationBut that eliminates risk to the elderly, concentrates risk on working adults and children
18、Social security system must be established on a sound theoretical framework based on theory of intergenerational risk sharing,长期风险与金融新秩序,China Should Sell Shares in its GDP to Foreigners,Chinese uncertainty is borne by Chinese alone todayBelievers in the Chinese economy abound, all over the worldChi
19、na needs to use these believers as investors to manage its risksChina needs to diversify its portfolio somewhat, and a deal can be struck to do that,长期风险与金融新秩序,Loans with GDP Warrants,GDP warrants grew out of oil price warrants issued as part of Brady-Bond refinancing for Mexico, Venezuela, and Nige
20、riaBulgaria issues warrants on GDP as part of Brady-Bond refinancing, 1994. Bulgarian warrants, inseparable from discount bonds, have not created salient price discovery for claims on Bulgarian GDP,长期风险与金融新秩序,Economic Derivatives MarketGoldman Sachs-Deutsche Bank,First Auction, October 2002, Nonfarm
21、 payrollAuctions in ISM Index, IFO Index plannedParimutuel Digital Call Auction (PDCA) Longitude, Inc., New York,长期风险与金融新秩序,Macro Markets,US patent #5,987,435 with Allan Weiss (Case Shiller Weiss, Inc.) would to create securities based on income aggregates or real estate prices: “macro securities”Al
22、lan Weiss, Sam Masucci and I have founded Macro Securities Research (1999) and Macro Financial LLC (2004) to promote macro securitiesWorking with American Stock Exchange, completed legal work, one specialist firm has committed to make a market,长期风险与金融新秩序,Macro Securities,Macro securities issued and
23、redeemed by exchange only in pairs, one long and one short.Each member of pair has a cash account made proportional to some economic index (such as GDP) by reallocating across accountsEach Macro pays dividends equal to interest on their cash account (NAV).Price of Macro should in equilibrium reflect
24、 market valuation of claim on cash flow,长期风险与金融新秩序,Declaration of Nuevo LenAdvocates GDP-Indexed Debt,Summit of Americas, Monterrey Mexico, January 2004Signed by 34 Western Hemisphere heads of stateTying debt of countries to countries GDPs helps insulate their economies from macroeconomic fluctuatio
25、nsSubject of GDP-Linked Debt will be on agenda of international conferences,长期风险与金融新秩序,Livelihood Insurance,Replaces life insurance in dealing with largest risksLong-term policies based on occupational indexesRepeated measures occupational indexes: Robert Shiller and Ryan Schneider Rev. Income and W
26、ealth 1998Powerful impact on conservatism in lifes decisions, makes for more risk taking,长期风险与金融新秩序,Home Equity Insurance,Risks to values of homes greater than risks by fireOak Park Illinois, 1977Chicago Home Equity Assurance Program 1988Index-based insurance, Shiller and Weiss 1994Yale-Syracuse-NRC
27、 program, 2002,长期风险与金融新秩序,Radical Financial Innovation,Innovation that extends the principles of insurance, diversification, hedging into new directions, covering risks that had not been managed beforeInnovation that democratizes risk management, that permits it to be used for the benefit of everyone.Can cover the big risks that create major inequality in society,