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1、Q1 2012 real estate report IssN 2040-7599 published by Business Monitor International ltd. CHINa INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor Internati
2、onal. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, el
3、ectronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to b
4、e accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions af
5、fecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA REAL ESTATE REPORT Q1 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO
6、2016 Part of BMIs Industry Report the culture of guanxi, or connections, helps maintain corruption in the system, making it difficult for foreign companies to compete with local firms. ? As a result of higher interest rates and restricted bank lending, many developers are finding access to funding a
7、 constraint. Opportunities ? Government cooling measures are beginning to see some success in the residential sector, with prices stalling in a number of cities. ? Debt fears in the US and eurozone are pushing more investors towards the Asia Pacific region: as the areas largest market China will sta
8、nd to benefit substantially from an increase in real estate investment from overseas. ? Demand for office space continues to increase, providing opportunities for new projects and developments to commence throughout the country. Threats ? If demand continues to surge in the commercial sector, concer
9、ns have arisen about a commercial real estate bubble, which would cause further problems to developers looking for funding. ? Although China has been opening up to the world since 1979, there is no guarantee that access will get easier for foreign firms if the government decides to protect its domes
10、tic industries from global competitive pressures. ? The steel industry is not growing in proportion with GDP so far in 2011, and if manufacturers raise prices to counter the lack of demand, real estate developers will see their project costs increase. China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monito
11、r International Ltd Page 8 China Economic SWOT Strengths ? China is the fastest-growing major economy in the world, and this has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past generation. ? China has a massive trade surplus and its huge foreign exchange reserves serve as a major
12、cushion against external shocks. ? Chinas economic policymakers are committed to continuing their gradual reform of the economy. Weaknesses ? Chinas economic growth boom has led to major imbalances and environmental degradation. ? The countrys dependency on exports to boost growth has made it vulner
13、able to the global recession. Private consumption remains weak at less than 40% of GDP. ? The close relations between provincial leaders and local businesses are fostering corruption, making it harder for the central government to enforce its policies. Opportunities ? Chinas economic growth is slowl
14、y becoming more broad-based, with domestic consumption likely to rise in importance vis-vis exports, thanks to a middle class of 200-300mn people. ? Chinas ongoing urbanisation will be a major driver of growth and new cities will emerge in less developed inland provinces. The UN forecasts Chinas urb
15、an population rising from 40% in 2005 to 73% in 2050: a gain of 500mn people. ? As China moves up the value chain, it will develop its own global brand name companies, fostering innovation and growth. Threats ? We believe that the global recession of 2008-2009 will mean an end to Chinas double-digit
16、 annual growth rate. ? Despite a halt to the appreciation of the yuan, the recession is leading to job losses in Chinas export sector and thus increasing social instability. ? An over-reliance on construction activity in economic growth could become a threat if credit flows are reduced and property
17、prices begin to cool. China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 China Business Environment SWOT Strengths ? China is continuing to open up various sectors of its economy to foreign investment. ? With its vast supply of cheap labour, the country remains the top destin
18、ation for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing world. Weaknesses ? Foreign companies continue to complain about the poor protection of intellectual property in China. ? Chinese corporate governance is weak and non-transparent by Western standards. There is a considerable risk for foreig
19、n companies in choosing the right local partner. Opportunities ? Chinas ongoing urbanisation and infrastructure drive will provide major opportunities for foreign investment in landlocked provinces as well as the transfer of skills and know-how. ? The Chinese government is giving more protection and
20、 encouragement to the private sector, which is now the most dynamic in the economy and accounts for most of the countrys job growth. Threats ? Chinas government will block attempts by foreign firms to take over assets of national importance. ? China is experiencing rising labour costs, prompting som
21、e investors to turn to cheaper destinations such as Vietnam. China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Real Estate Market Overview The sharp increases in residential property prices over 2010 caused the last two years in the market to be plagued by the governments c
22、ooling measures. These include: banning second home purchases; increasing minimum down payments for properties; scaling back housing-related tax breaks; and introducing property taxes in two cities. Among the measures was also the decision in August 2011 by the National Development and Reform Commis
23、sion (NDRC) to ban the construction of theme parks, as reported by the Financial Times. Amusement parks worth over CNY500mn (US$78mn) and covering more than 20 hectares can no longer be constructed in China. Sales for residential properties decreased as a result of this austerity in the market, but
24、it is only in recent months that prices are said to have experienced a change. Reports indicate that prices in 40 cities around the country have stalled as of early October 2011. However, major evidence of a decline in prices is yet to materialise. Increased interest rates and restricted bank lendin
25、g have caused a lack of funding for some developers, who have reduced their property prices in reaction to this in the hope of increasing sales. However, towards the end of October this caused protests to break out, mainly in Shanghais commercial hub. Homebuyers are objecting to the recent price cut
26、s by developers, in the region of 10-30%. Further protests cannot be ruled out from those who bought their properties at much higher prices. Reports indicate that the offices of a number of developers were occupied by protestors. This does, however, further indicate that prices are falling, decreasi
27、ng inflation and the risk of the residential bubble continuing. In the short term, cooling residential demand and government restrictions have proved a boon for the commercial sector, where developers are increasing their exposure to diversify their sources of revenue. Developers usually known for t
28、heir residential interests are looking to the commercial market, including Shimao Property, China Resources Land and Poly Real Estate Group. However, a long-term concern is emerging that this will simply create a bubble in the commercial sector, as prices increase on the back of the surge in demand
29、and introduction of new projects. Shanghai Shanghai is one of only two cities (Chonqing being the second) in which property taxes were introduced in 2011 as part of the governments cooling measures. The protests at some of Shanghais developers offices show that although they are succeeding, it is un
30、likely to be a simple process to bring prices back down to reasonable levels. China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 In order to better control the property situation (and in response to the recent protests), Shanghai developers must now register any home price c
31、uts of more than 20%. It is hoped this will stem dissatisfaction in homeowners for whom a number of cuts have come as a surprise. Beijing Beijing is one of the top five cities for overseas investors, according to Cushman a saturated market causing investors to look to other cities like Beijing; or j
32、ust a levelling out of rental levels as supply begins to match demand. Retail Property consultant DTZ reported in late October 2011 that the retail trend in China is currently for foreign investors to buy property instead of rent it. Soaring rents and competition for prime locations has contributed
33、to the situation. Companies like Tesco and Inter Ikea Center Group (co-owned by Swedish giant Ikea) have announced plans to build their own shopping centres in China. However, it is uncertain what this will do to rental levels in the long term as these companies are then likely to rent out their own
34、 retail space to other tenants. There is a suspected glut of retail property occurring in China at present, as a number of shopping malls are being built across the country. CapitaMalls Asias agreement with Suzhou Industrial Park Jinji Lake Urban Development Co to develop Suzhous largest shopping ma
35、ll is one such example. It has been suggested that this is the result of the desire to increase Chinas retail space per capita, but some sources would argue that demand is not high enough to sustain so many projects, which may cause vacancy rates to rise. In general (and unsurprisingly) retail rent
36、levels are much higher in Beijing and Shanghai than they are in Wuhan or Shenzhen. However, Shanghai was the only city to see any kind of decline in levels between early 2010 and mid-2011. Minimum rents in the city decreased 91.7%, from CNY240/m2 per month to just CNY20. Maximum rents were much stro
37、nger, with every city recording an increase and Beijing seeing a whopping 80% growth. This reflects the introduction of a number of shopping malls across the China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 country that will help to push rents higher as better quality spac
38、e becomes available. The decline in Shanghai could simply be indicative of a move to top-grade premises for a number of retailers. Industrial Industrial rental levels, generally commanding lower rates than the office or retail sub-sectors, are expected to maintain their current pace of growth. Manuf
39、acturers are increasingly looking to locations in emerging markets, which could spell an increase in activity for the industrial sector. However, this is a recent trend and results are yet to be seen in the figures we have recorded with in-country sources. The growth in industrial rents over the pas
40、t 18 months has been most pronounced in Shenzhen, which witnessed top level growth of 1,000%. Maximum rents of CNY30/m2 per month throughout 2010 soared to CNY330/m2 per month by mid-2011, also meaning that Shenzhen commanded the highest top-level industrial rents in 2011. Our in-country sources hav
41、e attributed this to increasing rental levels in Shenzhens industrial parks, while levels for individual premises throughout the city grew at a steadier pace. In Shanghai and Beijing, growth was modest and implied stability in the sector, while levels did not change in Wuhan. Table: Chinas Real Esta
42、te Market Historic Rents, 2010 and 2011 (per m2/month, CNY) January-June 2010 July-December 2010 January-June 2011e % chg y-o-y Office Min Max Min Max Min Max 2010-2011 Shanghai 180.00 330.00 180.00 332.00 60.00 300.00 (9-67) Beijing 100.00 190.00 110.00 300.00 13.00 300.00 (87)-56 Wuhan 45.00 70.00
43、 45.00 70.00 20.00 150.00 (56)-114 Shenzhen 100.00 200.00 101.00 202.00 105.00 350.00 5-75 Retail Shanghai 240.00 450.00 240.00 460.00 20.00 600.00 (92)-33 Beijing 150.00 500.00 157.50 525.00 180.00 900.00 20-80 Wuhan 100.00 250.00 100.00 260.00 100.00 300.00 0-20 Shenzhen 150.00 300.00 151.50 301.0
44、0 110.00 360.00 (27)-20 Industrial Shanghai 24.00 36.00 24.00 40.00 30.00 50.00 25-39 Beijing 25.00 90.00 26.25 94.50 30.00 110.34 20-23 Wuhan 10.00 25.00 10.00 25.00 10.00 25.00 0 Shenzhen 20.00 30.00 20.00 30.00 30.00 330.00 50-1,000 e = estimate. Source: BMI China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Busin
45、ess Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Table: Chinas Real Estate Market Net Yield, 2011 And 2012 (%) Office January-June 2011e July-December 2011f 2012f Shanghai 5-6 5-6 5-6 Beijing 6-10 6-10 6-10 Wuhan 5-6 5-6 5-6 Shenzhen 6-7 6-7 6-7 Retail Shanghai 3-5 3-5 3-5 Beijing 6-8 6-8 6-8 Wuhan 6-7 6-7 6-7
46、 Shenzhen 6-7 6-7 6-7 Industrial Shanghai 6-8 6-8 6-8 Beijing 6-8 6-8 6-8 Wuhan 6-7 6-7 6-7 Shenzhen 6-7 6-7 6-7 e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 Table: Chinas Real Estate Market Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2011
47、Office Term, years Rent-free months Shanghai 2-3 1-2 Beijing 2-5 None Wuhan 1-5 None Shenzhen 1-3 None Retail Shanghai 2-5 None Beijing 3-5 None Wuhan 3-10 None Shenzhen 3-5 None Industrial Shanghai 3-5 None Beijing 3-25 None Wuhan 5-10 None Shenzhen 5-10 None Source: BMI China Real Estate Report Q1
48、 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 17 Table: Chinas Real Estate Market Available And Vacant Space, Mid-2011 (m2) Office Available Vacant Shanghai na 2.6mn Beijing 1-2mn 1mn Wuhan 150,000 17,000 Shenzhen 1.0-2.0mn 0.5-1.0mn Retail Shanghai na 780,000 Beijing 1-2mn 1mn Wuhan na 20,000 Shenz
49、hen 1.0-2.0mn 0.5-1.0mn Industrial Shanghai na 300,000 Beijing 2.0-3.0mn 0.5-1.0mn Wuhan na na Shenzhen 2-3mn 1-2mn na = not available. Source: BMI China Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 Industry Forecast Scenario Real Estate Outlook Continued efforts to cool the residential sector will continue to affect all real estate activity in the coming months, with stalled prices now hoped to begin thei