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1、 2012 petrochemicals report issN 1749-2440 published by Business monitor international ltd. siNGapore INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor Inte
2、rnational. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphi
3、c, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed
4、 to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissio
5、ns affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. SINGAPORE PETROCHEMICALS ANNUAL REPORT 2012 INCLUDES 5-YE
6、AR INDUSTRY FORECASTS Part of BMIs Industry Report has to import basic feedstock. ? Has modest domestic polyvinyl chloride (PVC) production. Opportunities ? Shell and ExxonMobils cracker projects will increase ethylene output and improve Singapores standing in the ethylene league table. ? Rising dem
7、and for monoethylene glycol. China to have 75% of global demand by 2015. ? Asias demand for petrochemicals expected to rise steadily, with China accounting for a large portion of incremental demand. This provides export opportunities. Threats ? It may be severely affected by an economic slowdown in
8、China. ? Rapidly growing Chinese and (inexpensive) Middle Eastern capacity expected to moderate demand growth for Singapore petrochemicals in 2010; new capacity coming onstream at a time when petrochemicals price cycle is emerging from low-point. Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business
9、Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Singapore Political SWOT Strengths ? Singapore enjoys a very stable political system, following the countrys second change of leadership in 40 years, which saw Lee Hsien Loong son of the nations founder Lee Kuan Yew take over as prime minister in 2004. ? Official pro
10、mises have been made to eradicate Singapores reputation as an overprotective nanny-state, with efforts to enhance freedom of expression. Weaknesses ? Singapore is not a properly functioning democracy. The ruling Peoples Action Party has won all but six seats in parliament and the opposition is restr
11、icted from campaigning through tight control over political debate and frequent use of libel laws. ? The government has yet to improve the situation for the less well off in Singapore and there is a rising wage gap between the top earners and the lowest paid. Opportunities ? Lee is proving himself a
12、 capable leader, moving away from the shadow of his father by repeatedly calling for more openness. ? Singapore is leading its regional neighbours in signing free trade agreements. Increased regional integration is likely to give the country more influence in Asia. Threats ? There are fears that Sin
13、gapores foreign policy alignment with the US will cause the city-state to become a target for terror attacks launched by Muslim extremists. ? The last election showed that segments of the electorate are becoming disenchanted with the Peoples Action Party and its repression of opposition voices. Sing
14、apore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Singapore Economic SWOT Strengths ? Singapores monetary policymakers have gained credibility by guiding the exchange rate to offset inflationary pressures while ensuring stable growth. ? Singapores current account surp
15、lus remains about 20% of GDP and its external finances are in good shape. This is reflected by the worlds credit rating agencies, which continue to award Singapore top marks for external strength. Weaknesses ? The trade-dependent economy remains exposed to global trends in demand for electronic good
16、s, which account for around half of Singapores non-oil exports. ? Singapore faces a number of long-term economic problems. Competition from low- cost neighbouring countries is on the increase and its population is ageing rapidly. Opportunities ? In the face of regional competition for both exports a
17、nd investment, the government is encouraging economic diversification to boost competitiveness. New areas being promoted include biomedical sciences, medical services, financial services and tourism. ? There may be increased prospects for Singapore to expand its investments in the Iskandar Malaysia
18、project (a government-directed economic corridor initiative) in Johor, following a cordial visit by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak in May 2009. Threats ? There is significant state involvement in the private sector, with the government refusing to disclose the assets of the Government of Singa
19、pore Investment Corp (GIC). The GIC is one of the worlds largest institutional investors, managing foreign exchange reserves and government funds worth more than US$100bn. Without increased openness, investor confidence could be damaged and domestic growth hindered. ? Singapores exporters will need
20、constantly to adapt to competition from low-wage economies such as China and India. Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Singapore Business Environment SWOT Strengths ? Singapore is the least corrupt country in the world, according to Transparency In
21、ternationals 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index. ? Strikes and labour protests will remain rare, if not absent, for the foreseeable future owing to the governments autocratic insistence on a business-friendly environment. Policymakers will continue to use heavy-handed tactics to ensure unions stay pl
22、iant. Weaknesses ? Political and economic stability has come at a price. The government censors the media and limits the distribution of foreign publications. The judiciarys record of siding with prominent politicians calls into question the true extent of its neutrality in any contract dispute invo
23、lving a politically sensitive issue. Opportunities ? Owing to the lack of progress at the WTO, the government has committed the country to sign 18 bilateral free trade agreements with 24 trading partners. Singapore has already signed agreements with several countries, including the US, Japan, India
24、and Australia. ? Singapore has one of the best business operating environments in Asia. This is reflected by its second place in the Index of Economic Freedom league table compiled by Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. Threats ? Singapore is potentially at risk of a terrorist attack. T
25、he city-state has previously been identified as a target by Islamist militants from neighbouring Indonesia and elsewhere. Singapores adjacency to the Malacca Straits means its trade is vulnerable to international piracy. Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd
26、Page 11 Global Petrochemicals Overview Petrochemicals Market Overview Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2015 (000 tonnes capacity) Country 2011e 2015f US 26,615 26,837 China 17,910 25,700 Saudi Arabia 15,220 16,520 South Korea 7,830 8,080 Japan 6,800 6,000 Germany 5,505 5,505 Ira
27、n 5,376 11,076 Canada 5,202 5,202 Thailand 4,425 4,425 India 4,105 9,405 Taiwan 4,045 6,145 Netherlands 3,980 3,980 Singapore 3,790 3,790 Brazil 3,700 3,700 Russia 3,620 5,300 France 3,135 3,135 United Kingdom 2,840 2,840 Qatar 2,600 4,500 Belgium 2,540 2,540 UAE 2,000 3,500 Malaysia 1,740 1,740 Kuw
28、ait 1,700 1,700 Spain 1,645 1,645 Mexico 1,550 2,580 Argentina 700 700 Poland 700 760 Hungary 660 660 South Africa 650 650 Indonesia 620 1,000 Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2015 (000 tonnes
29、 capacity) Country 2011e 2015f Venezuela 600 1,900 Turkey 600 600 Czech Republic 595 595 Ukraine 550 550 Australia 515 515 Bulgaria 450 450 Israel 450 450 Azerbaijan 370 370 Egypt 300 300 Nigeria 300 300 Central Asia 240 1,490 Slovakia 210 210 Romania 200 200 Algeria 130 1,230 Colombia 120 120 Chile
30、 60 60 e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI The global petrochemicals market will be determined by four main factors going into 2012: the eurozone crisis, the slowdown in Chinese and US consumption growth, the impact of the March 2011 Japanese earthquake and the price of oil. Austerity measures in d
31、eveloped countries have led to decreased government spending, with many European governments abandoning their stimulus programmes. These cutbacks, particularly in crisis-hit Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, will lead to years of reduced demand. European petrochemicals demand was slowing in H211,
32、 but producers were confident that there was no danger of a crash in the market, with many believing that the region was going through a period of stabilisation following a peak in Q111. There is little direct evidence of demand destruction, but the macroeconomic forecasts for Europe and the US rema
33、in dismal and will be a drag on the market in 2012. Inventories had been reduced sufficiently by Q411 to prevent the kind of shock to the market that followed the 2008 financial crisis. This cautious approach should mitigate downside risks, but, as far as the petrochemicals market is concerned, Germ
34、any remains the focal interest. While the German economy reported solid growth in 2011, this was largely on the basis of exports to China, with domestic growth Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 contributing little to the countrys growth story. Thi
35、s dependent relationship could upset petrochemicals growth going into 2012. Chinas rate of inflation, exacerbated by energy prices, is prompting the Chinese authorities to take steps to prevent economic overheating. The resulting restriction in demand will mean a more competitive environment in the
36、Chinese market, with only the Middle East likely to benefit from future growth. If there is no sustained growth in the Chinese economy over 2012, the Middle Easts new capacity could prove a major threat, particularly as China is unlikely to cut back petrochemicals output, even if domestic demand is
37、lacklustre. A possible property crash in China with the popping of the housing bubble could see a repeat of the US sub-prime boom but on a larger scale. This would lead to the inundation of cheap Middle Eastern petrochemicals on the global market, potentially leading to cracker closures in the devel
38、oped world. An inventory overhang was already developing in China, with the inventory cycle extending from 50 to 70-80 days in Q411 and any hit to the market will make it a very difficult competitive environment for many producers. The March 2011 Japanese earthquake disaster will continue its effect
39、s into 2012. As the worlds fifth- largest and Asias third-largest producer by basic chemicals capacity, Japans production problems in the wake of the disaster led to a sharp rise in the prices of petrochemicals products in Asia. Japans logistical infrastructure and electricity supply were severely a
40、ffected by the disaster, with a direct effect on capacity utilisation. Petrochemicals plants in Kashima, which was the epicentre of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake, were shut in the aftermath, hitting PX and PET production. By mid-2011, all steam crackers in eastern Japan had restarted, with Japanese e
41、thylene output in August 2011 up 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 8.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 612,400 tonnes, the first increase in two months. There were knock-on effects of supply-chain disruptions caused by the Japanese disaster, particularly co- polymer PP which is likely to remain disrupted for
42、 months to come. Several manufacturing plants in this region continue to be plagued with electricity problems. Latest government thinking suggests power rationing could be required over the summer, with companies forced to cut peak-hour usage by 20- 25%. Although the disaster creates more downside r
43、isk over the short-term, rebuilding efforts will boost chemical production over the medium-term. As we stressed, the differential between naphtha-based petrochemicals production and the more competitive ethane-based facilities that have emerged in the Middle East will come to the fore in 2012. Oil p
44、rices are likely to be driven up due to uncertainty, particularly amid the eurozone crisis. Petrochemicals producers are likely to hedge against future cost rises by stocking up, but BMI believes that oil prices are unlikely to undergo a significant downward adjustment in 2012. At a time of depresse
45、d demand and falling product prices, margins will be squeezed and many plants could face at least temporary closure. Despite falls in Brent crude and naphtha prices in mid-2011, European producers have Singapore Petrochemicals Annual Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 not been ab
46、le to gain as much advantage as they might due to the weak euro, which has increased their costs as crude and naphtha trade in dollars. However, the mood going into 2012 is one of uncertainty, due to the eurozone crisis and its potential ongoing effects. Cracker and polymer output was at 80% capacit
47、y in Q411 and there was an expectation that this could be reduced in order to balance the market, particularly in Europe. Prices in Q411 were being reduced in line with a slackening in demand, although naphtha feedstock costs remained high, to the disadvantage of European and East Asian producers. T
48、he key to reviving margins in Europe will be feedstock flexibility and cost negotiation, but in the long run, this will shift to the consolidation and the shutdown of plants with low capacity, which are isolated from downstream and upstream facilities. There will also be a geographical concentration
49、 in petrochemicals capacities, with a continuing shift away from developed markets. Over 80% of the new ethylene production start ups over the next five years will be in the Middle East and China. During 2010-2015, global ethylene capacity should rise by 25% to 176mn tpa. By 2015 Western Europe and North America will see their share of global capacity fall to 11% and 19% respectively from 13% and 23% in 2010. Over the period, Eastern Europe includ