《Fundamentals of Financial Management-CHAPTER 8 Bonds and Their Valuation.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Fundamentals of Financial Management-CHAPTER 8 Bonds and Their Valuation.ppt（50页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、,CHAPTER 8 Bonds and Their Valuation,Key features of bonds Bond valuation Measuring yield Assessing risk,Key Features of a Bond,1. Par value: Face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000. 2. Coupon interest rate: Stated interest rate. Multiply by par to get $ of interest. Generally fixed.,3. Maturit
2、y: Years until bond must be repaid. Declines. 4. Issue date: Date when bond was issued.,How does adding a “call provision” affect a bond?,Issuer can refund if rates decline. That helps the issuer but hurts the investor. Therefore, borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, on calla
3、ble bonds. Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium.,Whats a sinking fund?,Provision to pay off a loan over its life rather than all at maturity. Similar to amortization on a term loan. Reduces risk to investor, shortens average maturity. But not good for investors if rates decli
4、ne after issuance.,1. Call x% at par per year for sinking fund purposes. 2. Buy bonds on open market. Company would call if kd is below the coupon rate and bond sells at a premium. Use open market purchase if kd is above coupon rate and bond sells at a discount.,Sinking funds are generally handled i
5、n 2 ways,Financial Asset Values,(,),(,),(,),PV,=,CF,1,+,k,.,+,CF,1,+,k,1,n,1,2,2,1,CF,k,n,.,k,.,+,+,+,The discount rate (ki) is the opportunity cost of capital, i.e., the rate that could be earned on alternative investments of equal risk.,ki = k* + IP + LP + MRP + DRP.,Whats the value of a 10-year,
6、10% coupon bond if kd = 10%?,(,),(,),(,),V,k,k,B,d,d,=,$100,$1,1,000,1,1,10,10,.,.,.,+,$100,1,+,k,d,100,100,10%,100 + 1,000,V = ?,.,= $90.91 + . . . + $38.55 + $385.54 = $1,000.,+,+,+,+,10 10 100 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV -1,000,The bond consists of a 10-year, 10% annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump
7、 sum at t = 10:,= = =,INPUTS,OUTPUT,10 13 100 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV -837.21,When kd rises, above the coupon rate, the bonds value falls below par, so it sells at a discount.,What would happen if expected inflation rose by 3%, causing k = 13%?,INPUTS,OUTPUT,What would happen if inflation fell, and kd
8、 declined to 7%?,10 7 100 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV -1,210.71,Price rises above par, and bond sells at a premium, if coupon kd.,INPUTS,OUTPUT,The bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if the required rate of return remained at 10%, or at
9、13%, or at 7%?,M,Bond Value ($),Years remaining to Maturity,1,372,1,211,1,000,837,775,30 25 20 15 10 5 0,kd = 7%.,kd = 13%.,kd = 10%.,At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value. The value of a premium bond would decrease to $1,000. The value of a discount bond would increase to $1,0
10、00. A par bond stays at $1,000 if kd remains constant.,Whats “yield to maturity”?,YTM is the rate of return earned on a bond held to maturity. Also called “promised yield.”,Whats the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond that sells for $887?,90,90,90,0,1,9,10,kd=?,1,000,PV1 . . .
11、 PV10 PVM,887,Find kd that “works”!,.,10 -887 90 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV 10.91,(,),(,),(,),V,INT,k,M,k,B,d,N,d,N,=,1,1,1,.,+,INT,1,+,k,d,(,),(,),(,),887,90,1,1,000,1,1,10,10,=,k,k,d,d,+,90,1,+,k,d,Find kd,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,INPUTS,OUTPUT,.,If coupon rate kd, premium. If kd rises, price falls. Price = par
12、 at maturity.,Find YTM if price were $1,134.20.,10 -1134.2 90 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV 7.08,Sells at a premium. Because coupon = 9% kd = 7.08%, bonds value par.,INPUTS,OUTPUT,Definitions,Current yield = . Capital gains yield = . = YTM = + .,Annual coupon pmt Current price,Change in price Beginning pric
13、e,Exp total return,Exp Curr yld,Exp cap gains yld,Current yield = = 0.1015 = 10.15%.,Find current yield and capital gains yield for a 9%, 10-year bond when the bond sells for $887 and YTM = 10.91%.,$90 $887,YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield. Cap gains yield = YTM Current yield = 10.91% 10.15
14、% = 0.76%.,Could also find value in Years 1 and 2, get difference, and divide by value in Year 1. Same answer.,Whats interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year or 10-year 10% bond have more risk?,kd,1-year,Change,10-year,Change,5%,$1,048,$1,386,10%,1,000,+4.8% -4.4%,1,000,+38.6% -25.1%,15%,956,749
15、,Interest rate risk: Rising kd causes bonds price to fall.,0,500,1,000,1,500,0%,5%,10%,15%,1-year,10-year,kd,Value,.,.,.,.,.,.,What is reinvestment rate risk?,The risk that CFs will have to be reinvested in the future at lower rates, reducing income. Illustration: Suppose you just won $500,000 playi
16、ng the lottery. Youll invest the money and live off the interest. You buy a 1-year bond with a YTM of 10%.,Year 1 income = $50,000. At year-end get back $500,000 to reinvest. If rates fall to 3%, income will drop from $50,000 to $15,000. Had you bought 30-year bonds, income would have remained const
17、ant.,Long-term bonds: High interest rate risk, low reinvestment rate risk. Short-term bonds: Low interest rate risk, high reinvestment rate risk. Nothing is riskless!,Do all bonds of the same maturity have the same price and reinvestment rate risk?,No, low coupon bonds have less reinvestment rate ri
18、sk but more price risk than high coupon bonds.,True or False: “All 10-year bonds have the same price and reinvestment rate risk.”,False! Low coupon bonds have less reinvestment rate risk but more price risk than high coupon bonds.,Semiannual Bonds,1. Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2n. 2. Divid
19、e nominal rate by 2 to get periodic rate = kd/2. 3. Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT = INT/2.,2n kd/2 OK INT/2 OK N I/YR PV PMT FV,INPUTS,OUTPUT,2(10) 13/2 100/2 20 6.5 50 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV -834.72,Find the value of 10-year, 10% coupon, semiannual bond if kd = 13%.,INPUTS,OUTPUT,You could buy,
20、for $1,000, either a 10%, 10-year, annual payment bond or an equally risky 10%, 10-year semiannual bond. Which would you prefer?,The semiannual bonds EFF% is:,10.25% 10% EFF% on annual bond, so buy semiannual bond.,If $1,000 is the proper price for the semiannual bond, what is the proper price for t
21、he annual payment bond?,Semiannual bond has kNom = 10%, with EFF% = 10.25%. Should earn same EFF% on annual payment bond, so:,10 10.25 100 1000 N I/YR PV PMT FV -984.80,INPUTS,OUTPUT,At a price of $984.80, the annual and semiannual bonds would be in equilibrium, because investors would earn EFF% = 1
22、0.25% on either bond.,A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon, $1,000 par value bond is selling for $1,135.90 with an 8% yield to maturity. It can be called after 4 years at $1,050. Whats the bonds nominal yield to call (YTC)?,8 -1135.9 50 1050 N I/YR PV PMT FV 3.568 x 2 = 7.137%,INPUTS,OUTPUT,kNom = 7.137
23、% is the rate brokers would quote. Could also calculate EFF% to call: EFF% = (1.03568)2 1 = 7.26%. This rate could be compared to monthly mortgages, etc.,If you bought bonds, would you be more likely to earn YTM or YTC?,Coupon rate = 10% vs. YTC = kd = 7.137%. Could raise money by selling new bonds
24、which pay 7.137%. Could thus replace bonds that pay $100/year with bonds that pay only $71.37/year. Investors should expect a call, hence YTC = 7.1%, not YTM = 8%.,In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1) coupon kd, so (2) a call is likely. So, expect to earn: YTC on premium bonds. YTM on
25、par & discount bonds.,Disney recently issued 100-year bonds with a YTM of 7.5%-this represents the promised return. The expected return was less than 7.5% when the bonds were issued. If issuer defaults, investors receive less than the promised return. Therefore, the expected return on corporate and
26、municipal bonds is less than the promised return.,Bond Ratings Provide One Measure of Default Risk,Investment Grade Junk Bonds Moodys Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa C S&P AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D,What factors affect default risk and bond ratings?,Financial performance Debt ratio TIE, FCC ratios Current ratios
27、,Provisions in the bond contract Secured vs. unsecured debt Senior vs. subordinated debt Guarantee provisions Sinking fund provisions Debt maturity,Other factors Earnings stability Regulatory environment Potential product liability Accounting policies,Top Ten Largest U.S. Corporate Bond Financings,
28、as of July 1999,Issuer Ford Motor Co. AT&T RJR Holdings WorldCom Sprint,Date July 1999 Mar 1999 May 1989 Aug 1998 Nov 1998,Amount $8.6 billion $8.0 billion $6.1 billion $6.1 billion $5.0 billion,Bankruptcy,Two main chapters of Federal Bankruptcy Act: Chapter 11, Reorganization Chapter 7, Liquidation
29、 Typically, company wants Chapter 11, creditors may prefer Chapter 7.,If company cant meet its obligations, it files under Chapter 11. That stops creditors from foreclosing, taking assets, and shutting down the business. Company has 120 days to file a reorganization plan. Court appoints a “trustee”
30、to supervise reorganization. Management usually stays in control.,Company must demonstrate in its reorganization plan that it is “worth more alive than dead.” Otherwise, judge will order liquidation under Chapter 7.,If the company is liquidated, heres the payment priority: 1. Secured creditors from
31、sales of secured assets. 2. Trustees costs 3. Wages, subject to limits 4. Taxes 5. Unfunded pension liabilities 6. Unsecured creditors 7. Preferred stock 8. Common stock,In a liquidation, unsecured creditors generally get zero. This makes them more willing to participate in reorganization even though their claims are greatly scaled back. Various groups of creditors vote on the reorganization plan. If both the majority of the creditors and the judge approve, company “emerges” from bankruptcy with lower debts, reduced interest charges, and a chance for success.,