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1、CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013No.6Published by SMMhttp:/ 10 Pages Contact us Hotline: +86-21-5155-0306 Mail: Fax: +86-21-5155-0345 Address: 23rd Floor, No. 2000 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai, 200063, China Table of Contentsnts Market Focus P1 Operating Rate P2 Domestic Market .P3
2、 Export Market P4 Price Forecast P6 Downstream Market P6 Aluminum AlloyP6 Silicon Metal Powder P6 Organic Silicon P7 Polysilicon .P7 Trichlorosilane P8 Related News P9 Economic News P9 Metals News P9 Operating Rate SMM survey shows that the average operating rate at Chinas silicon metal producers in
3、 December was 27.96%, with an increasing number of producers halting production, leaving signifi cant decline in silicon metal output. SMM survey covered 150 silicon metal producers with the capacity totaling 3.24 million mt/yr, representing over 81% of national total capacity. Chinas silicon metal
4、output was around 75,600 mt in December, including 39,000 mt of metallurgical-grade silicon metal and 36,400 mt of chemical-grade silicon metal. Highlights Market Focus: China Silicon Metal Provisional Tariff Cancelled 2013 Operating Rates: Operating Rates at China Silicon Metal Producers in Decembe
5、r Aluminum Alloy: Prices Lack upward Momentum amid Weak Demand Silicon Metal Powder: Higher Production Costs Drive Silicon Powder Prices up Organic Silicon: Sluggish Demand Further Weighs down Trichlorosilane Prices Polysilicon: Supportive Policy Limitedly Boost Polysilicon Sector Trichlorosilane: P
6、roduction Cost Hike Squeezes Profi t Margin at DMC Producers 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20112012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: SMM Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer 2011- 2012 1CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information Jan. 2008,
7、10% provisional tariff for silicon metal imposed; Dec. 2008, 10% provisional tariff for silicon metal hiked to 15%; Jan. 2009, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2010, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2011, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained
8、; Jan. 2012, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2013, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal cancelled. 2CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20112012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
9、Nov Dec Figure 1: Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer 2011-2012 Source: SMM Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unit: 10,000 Mt Figure 2: China Silicon Metal Monthly Output 2012 Source: SMM Operating Rate Survey of Operating Rates at China Silicon Metal Produce
10、rs in December SMM survey shows that the average operating rate at Chinas silicon metal producers in December was 27.96%, with an increasing number of producers halting production, leaving signifi cant decline in silicon metal output. In south China, silicon metal output in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guiz
11、hou dropped. In north China, represented by Xinjiang, the massive snowfalls pushed up cost on transportation, but production was little affected, so silicon metal output in this region remained flat at Novembers level. The cancellation of export tariff on silicon metal reported December 17 strengthe
12、ned bullish mood in the market and undermined producers selling interest. Thus, silicon metal prices were driven up. Besides, electricity prices in Yunnans Baoshan and Dehong were raised on December 28, along with the termination of power supply by small hydropower stations. As such, most producers
13、opted to halt production. SMM survey covered 150 silicon metal producers with the capacity totaling 3.24 million mt/yr, representing over 81% of national total capacity. Chinas silicon metal output was around 75,600 mt in December, including 39,000 mt of metallurgical-grade silicon metal and 36,400
14、mt of chemical-grade silicon metal. 3CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 5000 0 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% Operating Rate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A
15、ug Sep Oct Operating Rate Unit: MtUnit: Mt Monthly OutputMonthly Output 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 8000 16000 24000 32000 Figure 4: December Operating Rate at Sichuan Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Figure 3: December Operating Rate at Yunnan Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Operating Rate Jan Fe
16、b Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Operating Rate Unit: MtUnit: Mt Monthly OutputMonthly Output 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Figure 6: December Operating Rate at Xinjiang Sil
17、icon Metal Producer Source: SMM Figure 5: December Operating Rate at Fujian Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Domestic Market Silicon Metal Prices Up amid Bullish Outlook Since the elimination of export tariff on silicon metal lifted overseas market and may help drive up domestic demand, most silic
18、on metal producers held a bullish attitude towards market outlook, with low-grade silicon metal prices rising sharply. In contrast, downstream Table 4: Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer in Dec. 2012 Capacity Scale (Unit: 10,000 Mt/yr) Number of Surveyed Company December Output (Unit: 10
19、,000 Mt) 2012 Capacity (Unit: 10,000 Mt) December Operating Rate X4213.36142.1228.37% 4X1703.63142.1830.67% X1580.5740.1616.88% Total1507.56324.4627.96% Source: SMM Note: “X” refers to company capacity scale As described in the table, larger producers of fi nancial strength and risk tolerance manage
20、d to maintain their operating rates at around 30%, while the rates for smaller producers slipped below 20%. Only a few silicon metal producers were still in operation in south China at the beginning of the new year, and most downstream buyers have no plan to replenish stocks given the adequate inven
21、tories. Thus, SMM expects operating rates at silicon metal producer to drop further in January. 4CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Table 6: Comparison of Average Monthly Price of China Chemical-Grade Silicon Metal in Dec. 2012 Specifi
22、cation2011 Dec.2012 Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM #42114226.0912011.3612116.67-17.41%0.87% #41114280.4312061.3612178.57-17.26%0.96% Source: SMM Note: the above prices are RMB-denominated prices of chemical-grade silicon metal shipped from factories to major ports in China, such as Huangpu port in Eastern Chin
23、a and Dalian and Tianjin ports in Northern China. Unit: RMB/mt Unit: RMB/mt 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 #553#441#3303#2202 11-12-01 11-12-21 12-01-12 12-02-08 12-02-28 12-03-19 12-04-11 12-05-03 12-05-23 12-06-12 12-07-03 12-07-23 12-08-10 12-08-30 12-09-17 12-10-10 12-10-30 12-1
24、1-19 12-12-07 12-12-27 Figure 7: Price Trends of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon Metal at Huangpu Port Source: SMM Export Market Silicon Metal Exports Recover on Tariff Adjustment The report on eliminating tariff for silicon metal exports in 2013 greatly shored up export market. Traders overseas respond
25、ed quickly, requiring domestic exporters to remove the tariff from their quotations. A majority of exporters were thus unwilling to offer quotations for fear of any further changes in export tariff and imposition of any other tax, including resource tax, which will also push up their costs. Meanwhil
26、e, goods scheduled to be delivered by the end of December were postpone for January delivery. Although the delay in deliveries will incur storage charges, the removal of a 15% tariff will cause a decline of nearly USD 200-300/mt in purchasing prices of downstream buyers. As silicon metal supply was
27、tightened due to falling operating rates, driving up silicon metal prices in spot market, the export price of silicon metal should rise after the tariff adjustment. Table 5: Comparison of Average Monthly Price of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon Metal at Huangpu Port in Dec. 2012 Specifi cation2011 Dec.2
28、012 Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM #55312143.1810736.3611250.00-7.94%4.57% #44113115.9011363.6411730.95-11.81%3.13% #330314179.5511850.0011976.19-18.40%1.05% #220215715.9113150.0013150.00-19.51%0.00% Source: SMM Unit: RMB/mt enterprises did not show strong response to the news, as many of them have built suffi
29、 cient inventories previously. Besides, many buyers only waited on the sidelines given the high quotations. Electricity prices in Baoshan and Dehong, Yunnan province, were adjusted upward on December 28 for the low water season. Prices in Baoshan were raised from RMB 0.328/kwh to RMB 0.388-0.398/kwh
30、, up RMB 0.06-0.07/kwh, plus the RMB 0.018/kwh payable for power funds, the prices were fi nalized at RMB 0.406-0.416/mt. Electricity prices in Dehong were increased from RMB 0.289/kwh (including the RMB 0.019/kwh base price) to RMB 0.343-0.349/kwh, up RMB 0.054-0.06/kwh. The new electricity prices
31、should take effect on January 1, 2013. 5CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Huangpu Customs 74.58% Dalian Customs 3.57% Shanghai Customs 4.06% Tianjin Customs 3.18% Others 8.33% Xiamen Customs 6.28% Figure 9: China Silicon Metal Export b
32、y Customs in Dec. Source: China Customs Table 8: China Top 10 Silicon Metal Exporters in Dec. RankCompany Volume (Mt) Value (USD) 1Dalian DC Silicon4,0569,652,521 2Xiamen International Trade Group2,3555,336,674 3Xiamen Zhongjin International Trade1,8883,884,834 4Suifenhe Yuxin Trade 1,7683,158,675 5
33、Chongqing Silicon Import & Export1,7443,589,312 6Deyang Pengda Trade1,2922,596,080 7Xian Fuliang Trader1,2082,437,128 8Hulin Pengrui Trade1,1882,379,236 9Guangzhou Baochang Yuntong Logistic9782,299,160 1054019601649201,833,320 Source: China Customs 1950 2150 2350 2550 2750 2950 3150 #553#441#3303#22
34、02 Unit: USD/mt 11-12-01 11-12-20 12-01-06 12-01-25 12-02-13 12-03-01 12-03-20 12-04-11 12-05-02 12-05-21 12-06-07 12-06-27 12-07-16 12-07-31 12-08-17 12-09-03 12-09-20 12-10-12 12-10-31 12-11-19 12-12-06 12-12-25 Figure 8: FOB Price Trends of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon Metal at Huangpu Port Source
35、: SMM Table 7: Comparison of Average Monthly FOB of Silicon Metal at Huangpu Port Specifi cation2011 Dec.2012 Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM #5532321.822030.452138.81-8.56%5.07% #4412514.772146.822217.14-13.42%3.17% #33032784.322258.642291.19-21.52%1.42% #22022977.172465.002483.81-19.86%0.76% Source: SMM Unit:
36、 USD/mt According to SMM sources, mainstream FOB quotations in January were USD 1,930-1,980/mt for #553 silicon metal, USD 2,000-2,060 for #441 silicon metal, USD 2,140-2,180/mt for #2202 silicon metal, USD 2,020-2,100/mt for #3303 silicon metal, and USD 2,020-2,060/mt for #421 silicon metal. 6CHINA
37、 SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Downstream Market Aluminum Alloy Prices Lack upward Momentum amid Weak Demand Feeling increased cash flow pressure in December, domestic producers, especially SMEs die-casting producers, seldom made purchas
38、es, cooling consumption of aluminum alloy. However, considering fi rm prices for scrap aluminum, prices for aluminum alloy still held stable due to support from production costs, despite poor demand for aluminum alloy. Operating rates at large aluminum alloy producers were still stable, but orders s
39、till contracted slightly due to tight cash fl ow at downstream buyers. SMEs still arranged production based on orders received. In general, transactions were tepid amid tight cash fl ow, soft demand and oversupply at the end of the year. Consumption improved limitedly and prices still lacked upward
40、momentum with the coming of new year. It is expected that aluminum alloy prices will continue to hover at low level and will waiting for impetus from stock replenishment before Chinese New Year holiday. Table 9: Comparison of Average Monthly Price of ADC12 Aluminum Alloy Specifi cation2011 Dec.2012
41、Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM ADC12 (Primary aluminum) 17711.3616788.6416711.90-5.98% -0.46% ADC12 (Scrap aluminum) 17113.6416170.4516116.67-6.19% -0.33% Source: SMM Unit: RMB/mt Silicon Metal Powder Higher Production Costs Drive Silicon Powder Prices up The electricity price hike and cancellation of silicon
42、metal export tariff stoked silicon metal producers bullish sentiment in December, so most producers held back goods, resulting Price Forecast Silicon Metal Prices Up on Higher Costs Most silicon metal producers in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Fujian halted or cut production in December with the onset of low
43、 water season in southwest China. Therefore, operating rates at silicon metal producers are expected at around 25% during 1Q 2013. The zero tariff for silicon metal export taking effect on January 1, 2013 gave a boost to the market. SMM expects silicon metal price should be up RMB 200-500/mt in Janu
44、ary, while export prices excluding tariff should be up USD 20-50/mt. Supply: At Huangpu port, inventories were 15,000-17,000 mt at Hongkai warehouse, 20,000-23,000 mt at Yuehua warehouse, 2,000 mt at Wanxiong warehouse, and wharf inventories were 8,000 mt, making a total of 45,000-50,000 mt at the p
45、ort. Inventories at Guichu Logistics in Yunnan province were around 28,000 mt, of which 20,000-23,000 mt were stocked in Honggui Logistics. Total stocks in Kunming were about 50,000 mt. Enterprises were actively stocking upon raw materials by years end and were more willing to stock goods given no p
46、ressure from electricity costs after production suspension. Demand: Demand for low-grade silicon metal was strong in December, while that for high- grade and chemical-grade silicon metal also improved. The removal of export tariff greatly spurred buying interest of foreign buyers, so silicon metal e
47、xports will likely continue to rise in January. 7CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Organic Silicon Production Cost Hike Squeezes Profi t Margin at DMC Producers In December, DMC producers reported fewer orders and slightly lower sellin
48、g prices due to waning demand in December. Although demand was not brisk, DMC producers were reluctant to move goods at low prices, increasing inventories of DMC at the end of the year. After the New Year holiday, demand for DMC still did not improve amid growing wait- and-see sentiment. In January,
49、 it is expected that prices for DMC will fall slightly amid oversupply pressure. Traded prices for #421 silicon metal have been rising steadily due to higher production costs and transportation fees. According to SMM sources, prices for some #421 have exceeded RMB 13,000/mt. The higher prices for #421 but lower price for DMC will further squeeze profi t margin at DMC producers. Table 10: Comparison of Average Monthly Price of Silicon Metal Powder 40-120 Mesh Specifi cation2011 Dec.2012 Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM #5531425012602.2713028