《国际经济学 by 杨思群ch8.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国际经济学 by 杨思群ch8.ppt（32页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、1,Ch8. Balance of payments and international indebtedness and international financial market,2,1. Disequilibrium in the model of international trade,External disequilibrium,3,2. The balance of payment: current and capital account,Trade in goods: raw materials and capital goods consumer goods, Trade
2、in service: transport, insurance services as travel service. Interest,dividend etc., a country with external indebtedness has relied on foreign factors of production and has to pay for the factor services rendered. Transfers items: unilateral transfers (aid) and general transfers. Current account ba
3、lance: goods,service and transfers constitute it. Common reference to balance of payment surplus or deficit (is precisely a reference to the current account of the balance of payments) .,4,International dealings may be in the form of transactions involving securities, shares and bonds and money(bank
4、 deposits) international trade in money and securities results in capital movements, which are recorded on the capital account of the balance of payments. Current account versus capital account If the current account of the balance of payments show a surplus, then the capital account must at the sam
5、e time show a corresponding deficit. It must show a change in currency reserves and in international lending. Currency reserves consist of the liquid claims of the central bank on other countries minus the foreign liabilities of the bank. The currency reserves include the gold reserves of the bank,
6、Current account surplus (CA), public and private net borrowing abroad(B) and the increase in currency reserves (detaL),5,BOP: Double-entry book-keeping, current account vs. capital account,6,Autonomous and accommdating items As a whole, a balance of payments is always in equilibrium, therefore any d
7、isequilibrium will be in one of the subtotals,7,The crucial characteristic of automomous items is that they result from “independent business motives”, on assumption that private sector capital imports and exports are autonomous Left-hand side of the equation sign autonomous items. And accommodating
8、 items on the right-hand side. Automous and accommodating under floating and fixed exchange rates. Floating exchange rates: if the authorities do not intervene Fixed exchange rates: the authorities are under an obligation to secure the rate of exchange. Authorities have to compensate for any dis-equ
9、ilibrium caused by the automoumous items. Two tools are at hands: loans or change reserves.,8,9,3. The transfer problem,Saving and BOP Government expenditure, private borrowing and BOP crises of Latin America crises of SA,10,4. Factors influnce the BOP,11,5. International capital movements,12,5. Int
10、ernational capital movement,5.1 A stylized profile: a store of industrializing countries,13,5.2 recent capital movement,14,15,16,17,5.3 international indebtedness: a problem? positive effects (all agents may benefits from indebtedness), same reflected only in the real world prior to IWW. less positi
11、ve effects in 80s Latin American LDCs. Case of Chile and Brazil conclusion: Foreign indebtedness presents no problem in itself but may turn out to be highly problematic if lenders and borrows do not behave rationally or if conditions change quite unpredictably.,18,5.4 limits to foreign debt: a simpl
12、e model creditworthiness of the country are determined by political and economic factors. Political factor: political stability Economic key figures International liquidity Interest payments relative to exports Exports relative to GDP Foreign debt (D) relative to GDP (Y): b=D/Y A sustained deficit s
13、imple model,Only if the growth rate in GDP is above the average interest rate involved in the debt service will a sustained deficit be consistent with an unchanged debt burden,19,6. Foreign exchange market,Market description extend and structure Product of market Spot & future market Functions of ma
14、rket mediator of purchasing power: from one currency area to anther creditor facilities (international deposites and lending, international bonds and stock market investment and issuses) reduce exchange risk: exchange forward market provide that function,20,Demand and supply of foreign exchange(spot
15、 market) demand of market motives for demand of foreign currency can be revealed at the BOP. Import, carriage by foreign vessels, tourism, Oversea investment Increasing foreign currency reserves supply of market Export, foreign tourists spending Foreign investment Foreigner Increasing their domestic
16、 assts and claims,21,Players in the market,22,Quantity of foreign (USD) currency,RMB/USD,Supply of USD,Demand of USD,O,P0,Q0,Demand and supply of foreign currency,23,Quantity of foreign (USD) currency,RMB/USD,Supply of USD,Demand of USD,O,P0,Q0,Change of the demand and supply of foreign currency,If
17、no authorities intervene: CA+B=0 CA+Bp=0,Q&A: factors cause the change of D&S,24,Fixed exchange rate, change of the demand and supply of foreign currency, authortitys intervene,RMB/USD,Quantity of USD,Upper intervention limit,Lower intervention limit,Upper intervention limit,Lower intervention limit
18、,A,B,C,Q&A: why in a system of fixed exchange rates appropriate size of foreign exchange reserves is requried?,25,7. Exchange rate system,Floating rate system Fixed rate system Gold standard IMF system 1944, Bretton Woods Conference Fixed rate system but adjustable, Dollar Standard: $USD35/one ounce
19、 of gold, par value defined in terns of gold to IMF, 1% floating, change rate when a fundamental disequilibrium is encountered IMF: credit facilities for each member Vietnam War, 1973 fixed to floating,26,8.change national competitiveness,8.1 is it measurable for a countrys competitiveness? 8.1.1 a
20、standardized balance of payments A deficit of BOP is often associated with a low degree of competitiveness relative to that of other countries. However, some of reasons of change of it are unrelated to competitiveness. Sometime BOP also have trade-off.,27,8.1.2 market share changes Market share: in
21、current prices, change of price can not reflect competitiveness, quantities are not showed fixed prices: quality of product are difficulty to be measured 8.1.3 price and cost development (cause of competitiveness, CPP) Price problem: low price may not be a indictor of CPP, quality Perfect competitio
22、n, CPP =1 Altenertive ways: However, W and ALP is difficult to measure,28,8.2 CPPs effects on BOP and employment 8.2.1 The Marshall-Lerner condition and “J” curve,Px (USD),Qx,Qx,Px (USD),Export market,Px (USD),Import market,Pm,Qm,Pm,29,The Marshall-Lerner condition and “J” curve,Elasticity character
23、istic: Elasticity are larger in the long run than in the short run The sum of long-term export and import elasticities is larger than one, is not the case in short-term,X-M,time,Time of devaluation,Devaluation eliminates deficit,30,31,8.2.1 CPPs effects on employment,(X-M),Y,(X-M)=(S-I)+(T-G),(S-I)+(T-G)=F(Y),(X-M)1=f1(Y),(X-M)2=f2(Y),A,B,32,