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1、20098China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptxA.3B.151.2.3.4.5.C.51D.67 2008 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbHChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx2A.China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx3OEM400 cm3(CAS,),250 cm3/+/,+“China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx410(5 )(15 )(15)HEVHEVHEVHEVHEVHEVHEVHEVHEVHEVH
2、EVHEVChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx5123/:China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx6123:1 OEM2 OEMOEMChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx72020GDP1.00046%GDP2010/20201-20102-2020GDP 1.00019%46%GDP 1.00040:China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx8202015%1.60.3%0.5%0.7%1.0%1.5%2.1%2.9%3.9%4.9%5.9%646507380
3、2741938588713119220112012201320142015201620172018201920200.4%0.8%1.1%1.5%2.2%3.2%4.4%6.1%7.6%9.3%2654831281932881,0167915874182011201220132014201520162017201820192020:China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx9&HEVEVChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx1010OEM(1986-2011)198620022003200420052006200720082009
4、20102011(863)FAW Besturn B70Shanghai RoeweChangan Jiexun HEVBrilliance BS6 ISGSelf-owned Brand BSGFengxing MPV(Peri)(Hover)Kulia)A5 BSGA5 ISGVision(LaCROSSE) HVF3DM (Plug IN)F6DMF3eE6Pure EV light BusPure EV PickupPure EV Mini SUV(Happy Messenger)EV sedanEV mini busADEVHVHVPHEVChina Kinwa-EV Trends-
5、 20090806.pptx11PHEVPHEV (PV) 2008 vs 201020082010()( ) ( )OEM()China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx12OEMOEM20082009201020112012201320142015150,000E6.S1870,000.Tiggo.3Riich M1.China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx13OEM20082009201020112012201320142015/ SaibaoEK-2.Lifan.320Benbe.nChina Kinwa-EV Trends-
6、 20090806.pptx14B.China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx15OEM/12345China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx161(2006-2020)200713HEV EV FC86313863HEV EV FC2001 2002 2003200420052006200720082009China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx171OEMOEMOEMOEMOEMOEMOEMChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx181 1.65%2009/1 100
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9、DC/DCEVHEVEV/HEVHEVChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx24PHEVPHEV (PV) 2008 vs 201020082010()( )( )OEM();China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx25EVEVEVBEPV2015202520072008200920102010F6DME6(Plug-in HEV)5000500EV ()EV700 EVDM:CEOBEPVChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx263/()/L/LL. China Kinwa-EV Trends
10、- 20090806.pptx2730(S 800/Century)( Matsushita Electric)(Panasonic EV(Aisin Seiki Co.)Energy Co.)70s19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200780s(Prius I and II, Estima, Alphard, Harrier, Highlander)Prius IIEstimaHighlanderCamryArthur D. Little Press Research;China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pp
11、tx28Prius I100%Prius I(1997-2003 )Atkinson-PriusECU100%1)(ECUs)(Denso Corp. )(Aisin Seiki Co.)()20041) Atkinson:Arthur D. Little Press Research;China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx29Prius(2004)Atkinson(Panasonic) is1)(Honsha)(Matsushita)(Kamigo)()Denso/()(Honsha)()(AW)(Hirose)(Honsha)1) Atkinson:Chi
12、na Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx303200-500: 80%China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx31320206%15% 5%6% 1%67%9%23%8%4%5%51%: 20204%17%7%4%9%60%10%2%6%4%48%30%China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx323/200-50024.63.711.26.41.74.00.63.013.15.61.10.41.90.81.42011201420171)53.07.813.129.72.42020():1021.13.21
13、3.15.57.32.13.79.62.60.41.22.16.00.33.31.10.70.71.32.82020201120142017: China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx3331EVDC/DC(,)23LiFePO4 ()1):China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx343.1-BMS/BMSBMS SoC & SoH(BMS) SoCBMS(IC)China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx353.1-DC/DCDC/DCDC/DCDC/DCHEV(Roewe 750)DC/DCHEV/
14、EVDC/DC Schaeffler-ContinentalChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx363.2- EV863 OEMEV:():OEM1) MOST Ministry of Science and TechnologyChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx373.2-863()8633OEM()DeloitteChina Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx383.2-2(LiFePO4)()()1)5%2%(,(LiFePO4)6%()24%20%/11%40%)(,(90% ), .)
15、13%()12%15%/6%()21%26%1), 2009: EEI, US DoE,China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx393.2-(30 mio,or 160 mio)4%17%41%38%/8x42200220082009: $6,600/to,3,(30 mio , 50%-)60% 200830%:1.5 2007()/,2020FMCSQM(2020,)4%29%mio/92 mio(2.2)Mild (2.6)=27%28%140.150 ktoFull (1.9)2008: 95k to(4.9):DoE, Evans, FMC, SQM, Madison Avenue Research,China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx403.2-600-700/30%(/)1), 2012volumes+ca:47560+ca.603251/3 ,203,100%IIIIIIIIIIII1)10000() “”, 2009:China Kinwa-EV Trends- 20090806.pptx413.2-(LiFePO4)(L