《产业资金流分析及对宏观经济调控的参考意义.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《产业资金流分析及对宏观经济调控的参考意义.doc（14页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、Industry capital flow analysis and the reference value of the macro-economic controlAbstract: This paper will propose a new macro-economic analysis - industry capital flow analysis, and to introduce the analysis process of this method, and to do some simple example about the method used in macroecon
2、omic regulation and control.Keywords: Industrial cash flow analysis, the macroeconomic regulation and controlIntroductionIn nature, there is a known ecological system called food chain, the core of which is the food. For example: Plant - Bug - Frog - Snake -Eagle, which is a food chain, In this food
3、 chain, the latter takes the former as food. If the peasant sprinkle pesticide to kill insect, insects will disappear, frogs, snakes, eagles will also disappear. Close contact with each other through food, which is the essence of the ecological balance of nature, while the value of the food chain is
4、 that it can help us understand the changes in one part of the other species.In our human beings economic activities, capital is its core, and our economic activities there is indeed such a high degree of relevance of the food chain, supply chain, which is what we call the industrial chain, such as:
5、 Real Estate -Iron & Steel -Iron Ore - Mining Equipment, industrial chain in this simple, real estate will directly bring about the steel demand, steel production will bring iron ore demand, while exploiting an iron ore may bring along the need exploiting mining equipment, Between them closely linke
6、d by the currency - commodity exchange. Financial activities as well as the activities of the currency movement will also be directly and quickly reflect on this chain of activities between the various links, including changes in the various production processes, various aspects of the impact of the
7、 size of the upstream and downstream industries. If combining the analysis of employment data and trade data, we will be a clear understanding the direct impact on employment of the industry chain, as well as the trade of impact on changes in the industry.A more accurate and timely macro-economic an
8、alysis: industry capital flow analysis, which is to bring you the contents of this article.At the same time, this article will demonstrate a preliminary application prospects of this method: to help decision makers can accurately predict the macro-economic policy effects of a more scientific economi
9、c policy, terms of trade changes in precise analysis of the economic impact on industry, accurately analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on industry,. This last, industry capital flow, the concept of IPR protection and the U.S. industrial policy will be put forward some suggestions for refere
10、nce only!Chapter The concept of industry capital flows and data acquisitionSection 1 the definition of industry capital flow Industry capital flow is defined as an economic body in commodity production or sale of behavior for another economy of direct relevance to the currency or commodity trading a
11、ctivities, generally expressed as a result of commodity production carried out for goods or services associated with raw materials buying behavior. Heres the currency or its equivalent in the currency in the amount of commodities, that is, industry capital flow.Industry capital flow, there are posit
12、ive and negative cash flow of points, the inflow of capital is positive, capital outflow is negative.The positive and negative flow of Industry capital flow, to reflect the impact of an economic body of another associated with the relationship between economies, but also what we call the upstream an
13、d downstream industries.If an economys activity will bring about another economys currency income, the former, upstream of industry, the latter is downstream of industryThe concept of industry capital flow is relatively simply, this is no longer a more detailed elaboration.Section 2 Industry capital
14、 flow data acquisitionIn fact, this article in terms of concept, or the analysis method in practical applications are relatively simple, the greatest difficulty lies in how to obtain the capital flow data.At present, whatever country, do not offer any available data of capital flow for this method,
15、however, in view of the important role of the analytical methods in economic activity and the more accurate characteristics relation to the availability of macro-economic analysis of the current method ,the establishment of industrial capital flow database have a very realistic and far-reaching sign
16、ificance. For the current problems in the economy, such as global economic imbalances, trade disputes and other problems, but also has a real and urgent demand.Banks, in fact is the only but also the most authoritative data providers.The current economic activities can be said that more than 99% of
17、the transaction amount is done through banks, among which the amount of transactions through the business accounts of all transactions should be accounted for the amount of business for over 50% or more.Through the classification of enterprises (in fact, in most countries of the companies currently
18、doing business category), we can easily get to a transactions activity data between some category of business to other types of business.There are two circumstances needed to take into account, one classification is that more detailed analysis, the results will be more precise, the other, we need to
19、 consider the privacy of corporate behavior. This is where the benefits of disaggregated data by category, we can understand our need for data, on the other hand, we get the data without revealing a specific privacy of the economic activities of enterprises.For further protection of corporate privac
20、y practice, banks would be relevant data submitted to the central bank, announced by the central bank to further aggregate!Chapter IIIntroduced the industry capital flow analysis methodSection 1 A simple capital flow analysis of the industryIn order to facilitate the reader to understand, we cite th
21、e A Company is a real estate company, B Company for a cement company, the real estate development of A Company will generate demand for B cement companies.Now continue to assume that A Company has invested 1 billion in residential development goods in 2008, of which 100 million used to purchase the
22、cement from the B Company, then we can say, the cash correlation of A business-to-B Companies is +10%, or 1 yuan per A production activities of enterprises will inevitably bring about B enterprise 0.1 yuan of commodity production activities; which, in turn, B increasing production companies will not
23、 necessarily to bring A business output, that is, business-to-A company Bs cash correlation is -10% .Its formula can be expressed as:Cash correlation = B enterprise fund revenue | A Company total capital expenditure |Namely, +10% = +1 | -10 | 100%Assuming that to produce each 1 million cement of B C
24、ompany needed a worker, then A business-to-B enterprise human capital correlation is +10% 10000 = +0.001%.If we say 10,000 yuan / worker productivity for the company B, then A business-to-B enterprise human resource implications can be expressed with the formula as follows:Human capital correlation
25、= (B enterprise fund revenue | A Company total capital expenditure of |) B business labor productivityNote: where the above assumptions, A Companys expenditure incurred to develop domestic product of all expenditures, including human resource costs, publicity expenses and all other operations expens
26、es, while the revenue financing of B Company refers only to the capital inflow from A Company access to, but not including the B business sales to other businesses financial income.If we take A Company as the entire real estate industry, B enterprises look at the entire cement industry, then the +10
27、% is the cash correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry, and +0.001% is human capital correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry.In my view, the Chinese governments 9 trillion bailout program was able to be fast-onset, precisely because it has been invested i
28、n the industry with a wide range of relevance, and its human capital is also associated with a relatively high degree of industry, such as basic construction, real estate and so on! If we can get to the above data, then in the face of the media comments the Chinese government will be minimally so pa
29、ssively.Section 2 Industry Risk Prediction and AnalysisMarket economic activities are numerous and complex, to be truly comprehensive analysis of various industries, is almost impossible. But the shortcomings of the market economy require us to intervene in the market economy in some special cases.
30、To intervene in the market economy, we must first accurately identify the problems, and then before introducing macroeconomic policies, predict the effectiveness of policies in the full forecasts, such a policy can be more effective intervention in a market economy.We are still using the data of the
31、 first section, and further assume that A Company investment 1 billion for residential in 2008, and an annual growth rate of 8% will be made, then we can accurately get that B speed its business investment should be eligibly growing at the rate of 8% in the future, over this speed will be overproduc
32、tion, less than this rate will not be able to meet the market demand!For the macro-economic policy-makers, if over the investment rate 8%, B Company should be restricted to prevent the risk of overproduction in the cement industry, but less than 8% can be adjusted by the market!Although the danger o
33、f overproduction we can all realize, but we can not timely access to production data, a timely manner to predict the risk of industry is still not impossible!For the monitoring of industry risk, industry capital flow data is particularly important!Although the 2008 economic crisis caused by a variet
34、y of factors, but governments can not be timely prediction and limiting investment in overheated industries act remains the root cause of economic crises!Further, if governments have the ability to detect anomalies in economic activities, economic crises, though can not claim to be completely avoide
35、d, but at least can be reduced to a minimum range of influence!Section 3 Introduces the risk forecast and analysis of consumers industry In Section 2, we discussed the restrictive about A business-to-B production activities, but it is incomplete, because there is also overproduction A Company act!A
36、Company is at the top level in the composition from A, B consisting of the industrial chain, it would direct to consumers. Therefore, the measure of whether the overproduction of A Company will no longer analyze by the flow of funds between enterprises, but should take A Companys sales revenue of th
37、e industry as its cash flow. From the bank point of view, the total capital inflows of the enterprise account can be taken as an industry fund flow data. And the total inflow of data brought by the residential commodity sales is considered more desirableA companys investment activities will certainl
38、y be changes in the same proportion of its sales revenue, and the difference between the two should be equal to, or should not exceed a limit, this limit is actually the line of A business risk control.Date of this section, we actually have established a complete industrial chain, which is: Consumer
39、 - A Company - B Company.Section 4 How to determine the industrial chain and what is the most important industry chain As previously said, the market economic activities are numerous and complex, we can only control of key industries, which we need to filter out the greatest impact industry on our e
40、conomy through the scientific method, and establish the industrial chain for the industry data!In fact to determine which industries are the most important is not difficult, just compare the total amount of its GDP will be able to be seen!Conclusions is also can be drawn by the comparison between in
41、dustry capital flow analysis method of this text and the total of capital flows!After determining the good key industries, we can get a specific drawing of relationship between the industrial chain through investigating cash flow of the representative company, and then checkout the whole industry ch
42、ain through the banking capital flow data, we can get industrial chain frame what we need!And then, you can base on the combination of chain framework and data to monitor and forecast policy effects of macroeconomic!Chapter IIIDeep-level application of the industry capital flow analysis Section 1 Be
43、nefit analysis of the activities of bank creditDespite banks activities occupy a unique and important role in todays economic, themselves have serious limitations: In the case of an overheated economy, the banks become much easy lending due to the favorable bias in the forecasts of economic; in the
44、economic crisis, Bank decrease lending in order to reduce the risk of downgrade. We can say that every economic crisis, banks in fact played a role in fueling, it enlarge the economy but to accelerate its bubble burst!In turn, it shows that Chinas economy is unique, which lies in its banking system
45、to minimize the risk of downgrade economic system!But more careful analysis, we can still find the common between Chinas banks and the foreign, because of the risk control preferences, in the economic crisis, banks has objectively accelerated the destruction of weak industries or small and medium en
46、terprises.Through industrial funds flow analysis, we can easily find that industries having far-reaching impact on the employment and the industry chain became precarious or want to fall in the economic crisis, they are just the traditional industries, whose profit margins are generally lower but em
47、ployment has been relatively large. It will play an effective and efficient impact on stimulating the economy if fiscal and monetary policies can support credit targeted when you encounter the economic crisis time.The General Motors of United States, Chinas textile industry, are representative of su
48、ch incidents.The Sanlu incident on the impact of dairy farmers, if not the event itself caused by the special nature that government departments attach great importance, I believe Chinas dairy products will be distressed because of the shortage of raw materials had!This time part of the funds of the
49、 Chinese governments 9 trillion bailout program flowing into the stock market caused by speculation, I think that in the present circumstances, it is reasonable and understandable, because a pot of porridge you can not ask it does not have a little sand.But if we could find out relatively weak link in the industry chain through the accurate analysis of specific industries, and then introduced a targeted