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1、THE RISE OF CHINA AND THE DEMISE OF THE CAPITALIST WORLD-ECONOMYDr. Minqi Li, Assistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics, University of UtahMailing Address: 343 South 500 East #537Salt Lake City, UT 84102, USAPhone: 801-828-5279; 801-581-7697E-mail: ; minqi.lieconomics.utah.eduTABLE OF CONTENTSTABLE
2、 OF CONTENTSiiLIST OF TABLESvLIST OF FIGURESviPREFACE: MY 1989viiiCHAPTER IINTRODUCTION: CHINA AND THE CAPITALIST WORLD-ECONOMY1Historical Capitalism2The Rise of the Capitalist World-Economy and the Demise of the Chinese Empire6The Origin of the Chinese Revolution10China as a Strategic Reserve13Core
3、, Periphery, and Semi-Periphery15The Grave-Diggers of Capitalism17Climate Change Emergency20The End of the Capitalist History?23Structure of the Book25CHAPTER IIACCUMULATION, BASIC NEEDS, AND CLASS STRUGGLE: THE RISE OF MODERN CHINA28Socialism and Accumulation31Socialism and Basic Needs35The Great L
4、eap Forward and the “Three Difficult Years”41The Basic Contradictions of the Chinese Socialism54Socialism and Class Struggle59The Triumph of the Chinese Capitalism65The Future Is Bright, But the Path Is Tortuous71CHAPTER IIICHINA AND THE NEOLIBERAL GLOBAL ECONOMY74The Rise of China and the Triumph o
5、f Neoliberalism77Structural Contradictions of Neoliberalism80The US Current Account Deficits and the Neoliberal Global Economy82The US Macroeconomic Imbalances88Chinas Macroeconomic Imbalances91Appendix: Estimating the “Sustainable” Investment to GDP Ratio95CHAPTER IVCAN THE CAPITALIST WORLD-ECONOMY
6、 SURVIVE THE RISE OF CHINA?97Semi-Periphery in the Capitalist World-Economy99Class Structures in the Capitalist World-Economy103Chinas Class Structure108Can the Capitalist World-Economy Survive the Rise of China?111CHAPTER VPROFIT AND ACCUMULATION: SYSTEMIC CYCLES AND SECULAR TRENDS117The Rise and F
7、all of the Dutch Hegemony120The Rise and Fall of Pax Britannica122The Rise and Fall of Pax Americana124Profit and Accumulation: Secular Trends129System-Level Solutions to System-Level Problems?132Appendix: Estimating the Profit Rate in the Capitalist World-Economy137CHAPTER VITHE END OF THE ENDLESS
8、ACCUMULATION144Can Capitalism Be Sustainable?146The Unsustainability of Capitalism: A Proof150Nonrenewable Energy154Renewable Energy: Electricity158Renewable Energy: Liquid and Gaseous Fuels163The End of the Endless Accumulation?165Mineral Resources169Energy, Water, and Food170China and the Global E
9、nvironmental Crisis172Global Climate Change174CHAPTER VIIBETWEEN THE REALM OF NECESSITY AND THE REAM OF FREEDOM: HISTORICAL POSSIBILITIES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY17920102050: The Transition184The Realm of Necessity: Climate Change and Global Catastrophes189Beyond the Twenty-First CenturyTowards t
10、he Realm of Freedom?195BIBLIOGRAPHY201TABLES214FIGURES230LIST OF TABLESTable 2.1Economic Growth Rates of China and Selected Regions of the World, 19501976Table 2.2Life Expectancy at Birth in China and Selected Countries, 19602000Table 2.3Adult Illiteracy Rate in China and Selected Countries, 1970200
11、0Table 2.4Primary School Enrollment in China and Selected Countries, 19702000Table 2.5Secondary School Enrollment in China and Selected Countries, 19702000Table 3.1Distribution of Value Added in the Global Commodity Chain of a Talking Model of Globe for Childrens StudyTable 3.2Share of the Worlds To
12、tal Current Account Surpluses or Deficits, 19952006Table 4.1The Structure of Social Classes and Occupations in the USTable 4.2The Structure of Social Classes and Occupations in Latin American CountriesTable 4.3Evolution of Chinas Structure of Social Strata, 19781999Table 4.4Class Structures in the C
13、ore and the Semi-PeripheryTable 4.5Manufacturing Workers Wage Rates in Selected CountriesTable 5.1Ecological Footprint of the Worlds Major Regions, 2003Table 6.1Estimates of Electricity Generation Cost from Alternative Energy SourcesTable 6.2Energy Cost ScheduleTable 6.3Worlds Metallic Mineral Resou
14、rcesLIST OF FIGURESFigure 2.1Share of World GDP, 18202000Figure 2.2Index of Per Capita GDP, 18202000Figure 2.3Chinas Crude Death Rate, 19361980Figure 2.4Chinas Natural Disasters, 19501980Figure 3.1World Economic Growth, 19512006Figure 3.2Corporate Profitability, US 19502006/China 1980-2005Figure 3.3
15、Property Income as Share of GDP, Europe and Japan 19602006Figure 3.4Contribution to World Economic Growth (PPP), 1976/19782006Figure 3.5Contribution to World Economic Growth (Current $), 1966/19752006Figure 3.6US Foreign Debt and the Worlds Foreign Exchange Reserves, 19802006Figure 3.7Real Oil Price
16、 and World Economic Growth, 19502006Figure 3.8Long-Term Variations of US Stock Prices, 18712006Figure 3.9Macroeconomics Structure of the US Economy, 19602006Figure 3.10US Real Wage and Real Median Family Income Indices, 19642006/19772005Figure 3.11US Financial Balances, 19602006Figure 3.12Macroecono
17、mic Structure of the Chinese Economy, 19802006Figure 3.13Chinas Labor Income and Household Consumption, 19802005Figure 4.1Index of Per Capita GDP, 19752006Figure 4.2World Energy Consumption (Historical and Hypothetical Projection), 19702035Figure 5.1Long-Term Movement of Nominal Interest Rates, UK 1
18、7562006/US 18572006Figure 5.2Long-Term Movement of the Profit Rate, UK 18552006Figure 5.3Long-Term Movement of the Profit Rate, US 18902006Figure 5.4Economic Growth and Real Interest Rate, US 19602006Figure 5.5Share of World GDP, 19752006Figure 5.6Long-Term Movement of the Output-Capital Ratio, UK 1
19、8552006/US 18502006Figure 5.7Long-Term Movement of the Profit Share, UK 18552006/US 18502006Figure 6.1World Primary Energy Consumption (Historical and Projected), 19652050Figure 6.2Energy Efficiency, 19752004Figure 6.3World Economic Growth (Historical and Projected), 19652050Figure 6.4Worlds Grain Production, 19502006 (Actual)/19842100(Trend)Figure 6.5Chinas Grain Production, 19502006 (Actual)/19962100(Trend)Figure 6.6World Primary Energy Consumption (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Stabilizing at 450 ppm)Figure 6.7World Economic Growth (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Stabilizing at 450 ppm)