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1、 中国利率与汇率市场化进程. 摘 要 作为货币政策的重要组成部分的利率和汇率，是否会因这两次的调整而增加其相关性，就这一问题做出研究，得出利率汇率传导机制通过迂回的影响国内经济的形式对汇率产生作用，而由于汇率制度的不断完善，也为利率市场化改革创造了良好条件。 关键词 利率汇率传导机制 汇率制度改革 利率市场化1 利率对汇率影响的总体论评 从本质上说，利率是本币资金的价格，汇率是以本币表示的外币价格，本币币值是二者变化的共同基础，这就决定了汇率与利率之间的高度关联性。利率平价模型S=r-r*(1)灵活价格货币模型S=(m-m*)-a(y-y*)+b(r-r*) (2)粘性价格货币模型S
2、=(m-m*)-a(y-y*)-(r-r*)+(+b)* (3)此三方程是西方汇率理论中有关汇率与利率相关关系的重要结论。方程(1)表明了远期汇率变动率决定于两地利差，方程(2)表明了均衡汇率分别取决于本国和外国的均衡货币存量、实际国民收入和利率水平三组变量，与两地利差成正相关，方程(3)表明了即期汇率与两地利差成负相关。2 利率汇率传导机制基本理论2.1 利率变动对汇率影响的两个模型在金融开放条件下，人们关注到汇率对利率的变动越来越敏感，但往往忽略了导致利率变动的经济原因。而这些原因的不同将会导致利率对汇率作用方面产生不同的结果。2.1.1 Dornbusch模型 假设前提：购买力平价在长期
3、内成立。 理论模型：关于汇率、利率和物价的长期均衡方程为：Eo=Po+1rd+2yu式中，Eo表示可持续国际收支下的长期均衡汇率的自然对数，Po为通货膨胀率，rd代表内利水平，y是实际国民收入的自然对数，1、2为常数，u为偏离系数。该模型表明，如果一国经济结构没有实质性变化，当本币名义利率上升，意味着中央银行正在采用调节利率的手段来克服通货膨胀差异，这时的利率上升将与更高的通货膨胀预期相联系，会使国内对货币需求降低。人们在增加支出的情况下减少货币余额，于是价格随之上升，由于购买力平价成立，因此本币贬值，即本国利率和本币汇率呈逆向运动。2.1.2 利率平价理论模型如果投资者是风险中性的，国际资本
4、流动将使本、外币资产的收益率在一价定律的作用下趋于一致，故国内外利差应该等于本币汇率的预期变动率，据此可得无抵补的利率平价理论公式：I=I*+E其中，I和I*分别表示国内外利率水平，E表示预期的汇率远期变动率。当外国利率和预期汇率没有变动时，本国利率和本币即期汇率同向变化，即本国利率提高，本币升值。但当本币升值到一定幅度，预期汇率改变，贬值预期产生，人们开始出售远期本币，当远期本币供过于求时，本币远期贴水。这两个模型为我们揭示了利率变动所引起的汇率变动的不同结果，即当利率的变动是由通货膨胀引起时，本国利率提高会导致本币汇率的下跌；而当人们没有通货膨胀预期的情况下本国利率提高时，本币汇率立即上升
5、。2.2 利率汇率传导机制的构成利率对汇率的传导机制是指利率政策对汇率的作用过程。它的构成要素包括两个领域，即金融领域和实物领域；两个市场，即国内和国外金融市场，包括资本市场、货币市场和外汇市场等；多个变量，即利率对汇率产生影响的过程处于多个宏观变量之下，如通货膨胀率、货币供给增长率、投资和消费增长率等；多位主体，即指利率对汇率的影响要牵涉到一国中央银行、国内和国外的投资主体、消费主体和投机主体等；多种渠道，即利率对汇率发生作用的渠道不是单一的，是通过各种宏观经济变量的多重传导完成的。2.3 利率汇率传导机制的基础利率汇率传导机制发生有效作用需要宏观和微观经济基础。宏观经济基础主要包括：利率的
6、调整充分市场化，利率变化能够通过、影响货币供求引起经济总量的变化，投资和消费等经济变量对利率变化反映灵敏；存在发达的外汇市场，汇率水平主要由外汇供求状况决定；国际资本可以自由流动。微观经济基础包括微观经济主体必须对利率、汇率和通货膨胀率等信号反应灵敏，可以根据市场信号迅速调整自己的经济行为。根据这些条件满足程度的不同，在不同的市场化程度、开放度和汇率制度下，利率汇率的传导机制会有所不同。因此，利率变动对汇率的影响，要受到一国具体市场化程度、开放度和所选择的汇率等条件的影响，在不同的条件和时期下具有不同的表现。2.4 利率汇率传导机制的途径利率变动对汇率的影响有直接和间接两个渠道。利率变动对汇率
7、传导的直接渠道表现为国际套利资本的流动导致汇率下降或上升。在其他条件不变时，当本国利率水平相对高于外国利率水平时，为获得更高的收益，短期资本将流入本国， 市场对高利率国家的货币产生较大的需求，导致本国外汇市场上本币供不应求，本币即期汇率上升，外汇汇率下降；反之，本国利率水平较低，则资本流出，本币汇率呈反方向变化。 利率变动对汇率传导的间接渠道表现为利率通过改变国内总供给与总需求影响汇率水平。以一国利率较高为例，在投资收益不变的条件下，政府采用高利率的政策，增加了投资成本，使投资需求下降，导致本国货币供应量减少，通货膨胀率下降，增强了出口商品价格竞争力，有利于出口；同时投资需求下降，总需求也相应
8、减少，使经常项目外汇支出减少。在外汇供给的不变情况下，外汇供大于求，外汇汇率下降，本币汇率上升。在利率对汇率传导中，无论是直接或间接渠道预期因素都是不容忽视的。一国利率的调整，会带来居民对本国货币预期的变化，从而对汇率发生影响。预期因素通常与其他因素共同发生作用，有时可以产生数倍放大的效应。总之，一国货币利率上升，通过短期套利资本的流动，将引起即期汇率升值，远期汇率贬值。反之亦然。3 我国目前的汇率与利率政策改革开放以前，我国没有货币市场和外汇市场，利率和汇率均由国家统一制定集中管理，分割而治，相关度较低。在1994年外汇体制改革以后，人民币汇率“实行以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇
9、率制”，它与利率和国际资本流动之间的相关性逐渐显现。在2005年7月21日之前，我国汇率形成机制还没有完全市场化，人民币汇率主要在银行间外汇市场形成，外汇市场的供求关系是决定人民币汇率的基础，但还有一部分外汇供求关系无法在外汇市场上实现。可以说那时的人民币汇率最主要的变化，还停留在商品市场层次上，利率变化对汇率的影响是通过商品市场实现的，利率平价在中国无法起作用，利率政策对汇率的影响十分有限。一个有力的例子便是，19941997年间，人民币利率远远高于国际市场上的美元利率，根据利率平价理论，在此期间人民币应贬值，但与之相反，4年间人民币名义汇率微升了1.8。从2004年12月29日的利率上调达
10、到的效果来看，利率变化对汇率的作用更多的是通过对宏观经济的调控作用及对投资者心理预期的影1响来间接实现的。由于资本项目外汇管理和金融市场欠发达，人民币的利率与汇率无法通过市场机制建立直接的必然联系，虽然利率的变动可以通过贸易和境内外资金流动影响外汇汇率，进而影响到国际收支，再进而影响国内货币供给和国内宏观经济形势。但是目前，我国资本项目收支仍受到严格管制，外汇市场又是一个封闭型外汇头寸市场，仅限于银行间外汇交易，而且国内货币市场不发达、它与外汇市场的直接联系也尚未建立。还有制度性因素的限制，以及微观经济主体对利率政策变化的反应滞后，使得利率对汇率的传导机制的作用采取其他方式表现出来，或者其作用
11、的过程出现一定时间的时滞。因此，利率只能通过影响国内经济的迂回方式来影响汇率。利率的变动和汇率在国际资本市场上的自由浮动之间在一定程度上互起作用，随着市场开放力度的加大，这种作用越来越高。中国加入WTO以后，国内经济对外贸依存度极大提高，人民币向自由兑换和资本向自由流动方向不断迈进。此次汇率制度改革更是将汇率的政府管制进一步降到最低限度，更多的交给国际资本市场的流动和供求关系来决定。利率的变动会影响国内资本的流动，在开放经济下，各国间货币流动程度将越来越高，本币在外汇市场的供求也受到国内市场对其供求的影响，那么利率这种货币政策工具对汇率变动的影响便越来越大，而不论是通过直接的套汇渠道，还是间接
12、的通过影响国内供求渠道，利率汇率传导机制肯定会更加有效的对我国宏观经济运行产生作用，由于利率和汇率的相关性进一步加强，利率政策的制定会越来越多地考虑到市场因素以及和各种货币政策工具的配合协调。因此，在这种形势下，随着汇率形成机制的调整，利率制度的改革凸显其必要性。利率改革是我国目前金融改革的核心，市场化利率体系的建立是金融改革的最终目标之一。货币当局有必要在推进利率市场化的改革进程中，充分认识到利率在平衡国际收支中的作用，在出台相关政策时，应充分考虑到利率市场化对汇率水平的影响，以确保利率汇率传导机制的正常运行。近年来，央行一直致力于稳步推进利率市场化改革，尤其在2004年，利率市场化迈出了重
13、要的两大步：1月1日，再次扩大了金融机构贷款利率浮动区间；10月29日，放开了商业银行贷款利率上限和存款利率的下限。这样一来，对利率的约束只剩下对人民币贷款利率设有下限和对人民币存款利率设有上限这两项了。这两大步迈出之后，可以说从制度方面来看，近期的利率市场化目标已经基本实现。利率的市场化必须配合汇率形成机制的市场化，利率和汇率杠杆才能发挥宏观调控的作用。只有利率的市场化配合汇率形成机制的市场化，才能最终促进内外部经济均衡。目前，人民币汇率的形成机制已经改革，人民币汇率的波动区间适度扩大，这又为利率改革政策创造了一个较为宽松的金融环境。可以说，我国利率拥有了一个较稳定的兼顾银行稳健、企业改制和
14、储蓄稳定及人民币汇率稳定的目标区域。参考文献1 柯美水人民币汇率与利率相关性的探讨财经理论与实践J，2004（12）2 刘淄, 张力美金融开放条件下利率与汇率的相互影响及其协调国际金融研究J，2003（1organization system and working mode, the selection of a number of municipal strengthening group to build innovation and strengthen the organization of the basic level organizations advanced model.(
15、seven) the manual work of the Communist Youth League Organization published and League branch of manual work, to promote the use of two manuals in the citys organizations at various levels. The county committee, directly under the group (work) is under the jurisdiction of grassroots League and group
16、 (total) using branch ratio shall not be less than 70%.Three, to further strengthen the groups leadership and team building(a) to strengthen the leagues leadership at all levels of construction. Continue to do a good job of municipal Party Committee Organization Department on the strengthening of th
17、e Communist Youth League cadres management opinions implementation. To promote the group counties (autonomous counties, cities) Commission and city directly under the group (workers) appointed to carry out the Five team building activities. Improve the League Association Department working mechanism
18、. Conscientiously fulfill the duties of CO, combined with the city group directly under (the) Committee of the general election and the adjustment, actively jointly with the unit where the party organization department good group leadership selection with the work. Do a good job in municipal Party c
19、ommittee assistant committee leadership and leading cadres of the annual assessment work, adhere to and improve the assistant secretary of the Communist Youth League talk system group To weave individual conversation and collective conversation, to strengthen the committees of all levels, the Standi
20、ng Committee of the Standing Committee, the establishment of a sound system of central group learning, the system of investigation and study, the system of important issues and the reporting system.(two) to strengthen the work of education and training of cadres to conscientiously implement the Cent
21、ral Committee. On the implementation of grassroots cadres training project and opinions on carrying out the mission municipal CYL Cadres training project implementation opinions, full implementation of the project of the City Youth League cadres training education. Focus on the county grassroots cad
22、res and workers focused on training, the new school system vocational training League cadres, for the Municipal Organization Department jointly held the third session of the Communist Youth League system training cadres in party. Focusing on the construction of new socialist countryside, strengtheni
23、ng village cadres and rural construction team group member of the young team, the county organizations at various levels throughout the year is expected to train 100 00 rural grassroots cadres, plans to train 1000 village secretary of the village Party branch.(three) actively promote grassroots cadr
24、es election work. Under the unified leadership of the party organization, to strengthen grassroots organizations direct work, standardize the election work rules and procedures, in the designated candidate, open competition to democratically elected branch secretary at the same time, actively and st
25、eadily the development of Township, streets and other grassroots organizations in the direct election of the pilot work, on the basis of summarizing the experience and gradually expand the scope of the pilot, and gradually formed a set of measures and cadres election system.(four) to strengthen the
26、cadres testing exercise. To study the development of XX city from 2006 to 2008 cadres testing exercise planning. To select outstanding cadres to the central mission in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other central organs and sending work in developed areas. With the Central Committee the implementa
27、tion of the western region and ethnic minorities cadres training plan . To carry out the eighth batch of municipal organs attachment cadre management, selection, training work. The outstanding cadres to start the National Development Bank XX branch testing exercise.(five) to strengthen the group con
28、struction. The main position to play the role of Youth League cadre education and training as the city, in accordance with the requirements of post training, further curriculum scientifically and rationally, adopt arrangement menu course, basic theory includes group work, focus, hot and difficult is
29、sues, to enhance the content and practice; to strengthen the construction of teaching staff, the integration of teachers, establish a quality teacher training team, establish and implement course evaluation system; take delivery of training to the countryside, on-site training, and increase the rura
30、l grassroots cadres training efforts.Four, efforts to strengthen the work of young talent(a) to tenth XX young 54 medal in recognition of the publicity, and actively explore the XX youth service. 54 Medal of institutionalization, standardization and socialization mechanism. Give full play to the XX
31、award in recognition of 54 youth medal Association, Youth Award winner in the 54 chapter, investigation activities. Who won the Youth Service medal, dedication to the society to create conditions, build the stage. During the 54, named in recognition of the tenth XX young 54 medal. The association of
32、 XX editing of young talent , the exchange of information and communication platform for the XX of outstanding young talents.(two) the establishment of municipal Party committee of young talent information database. In accordance with the feasible, effective, classification management, implement ste
33、p by step principle, the establishment of municipal Party committee of youth talent database; guiding organizations at various levels generally established the young talent database, construction of city, county (directly under the Communist Youth League), grassroots organizations three young talent
34、 information database the relevant information collection system, and gradually establish the citys young people, the Communist Youth League youth talent information network, provide information platform for young talent resource development.Five, take effective measures to strengthen the mission ma
35、nagement(a) to strengthen the mission management work. Strengthen the dues collection and management, continue to adhere to the dues collection regularly reporting system, the annual comprehensive award in recognition of the tour and the tour one vote veto system audit system. Do statistical work in
36、 the group. The group service award in recognition of the advanced units, standardization, promoting group management work institutionalized.(two) to strengthen the organization of research and information exchange efforts. Grassroots carry out research, efforts to form a number of theoretical resul
37、ts. Make full use of the network carrier, to explore the establishment of electronic group service system, promote the work of Communist Youth League information.Attachment 4:XX municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department of the Communist Youth League work pointsIn 2006, the Communist Youth Leag
38、ue propaganda ideological work XX to Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents as guidance, study and implement the partys sixteen and the spirit of the the fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee implementation of the eight plenary session of the two committ
39、ee, the citys cultural work conference, the Propaganda Department of the meeting and the the fourth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee permanent mission spirit, closely around 11th Five-Year XX the goal of full implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, emancipating the mind
40、, seeking truth from facts, keep pace with the times, close to reality, close to life, close to the young, persevere grasp orientation, grasping deepening, grasping construction innovation, further improve the groups propaganda and ideological work ability, unity To guide the majority of members of
41、the youth to achieve the 11th Five-Year planning tasks, the overall construction of a well-off society, building a socialist harmonious society to make new contributions.One, adhere to the Three Represents important thought and Scientific Outlook on Development education to guide the youth, to furth
42、er strengthen the ideological and political education of youth(a) armed with youth science theory. Unremittingly with Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents armed members of youth education, to promote the study and implement to expand the depth and breadth. To study and
43、implement the important thought of Three Represents with the establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development combine with the implementation of the requirements of constructing socialist harmonious society with Scientific Outlook on Development, carry out education as an import
44、ant part of the theory of armed youth in the new period, strengthen the establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development education, educate and guide the youth to fully understand the great significance of establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, in
45、-depth understanding of the Scientific Outlook on Development era back The king, the practice foundation, basic connotation, historical status, spirit and practice requirements, a profound understanding of Scientific Outlook on Development with Marxism Leninism, Mao Zedong thought, inheriting and de
46、veloping relationship between Deng Xiaoping theory and the important thought of Three Represents, to help young people establish and consciously practice Scientific Outlook on Development. Persist in learning, grasping the backbone, grasp the practice, grasp the opportunity. Catch club, effective wa
47、y to grasp the network, with the group of cadres, young students and young backbone fronts as the focus, to promote the work of the armed youth theory to develop in depth, to help the youth continue to firm ideals and beliefs, to build a powerful spiritual pillar. To carry out the study and implemen
48、tation of the partys sixteen session of the five Eight plenary session of the two plenary session of the Central Committee and the party spirit, to the citys Youth League members thinking into the spirit of the meeting, to achieve the goal of national consciousness and XX economic and social development in 11th Five-Year period. Contribute to help and guide the youth to a profound understanding of the significance and main task of building a socialist harmonious society, actively join the construction of socialist harmonious society.(two) to strengthen th