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1、* C orrespending author40412904-2221-1181 ext 2598kclin ntitedu.w92426 2719892001(generational accounting)2.375.481999JELH51,H55,H6,13819891AGK 1991,1994200119891,8302001(1996)(1999)(1)(3)(4)(5)(6)G)(1)(2)(3)219866.6%200118.4%199532003a 2003bA uerbach G okhaleKotlik。任30,251(generational accounting)2
2、003a 2003b20011980198219841986198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020013,407.24,544.65,159.15,848.47,654.49,215.810,924.010,499.312,575.714,163.315,027.515,594.316,041.817,047.620,534.620,043.927,848.621,003.03,403.64,872.55,062.26,167.27,264.712,073.510,975.212,756.115,619.317,563.11
3、8,263.719,100.718,437.918,787.619,925.920,500.031,409.425,573.03.5 -327.996.9 -318.8 389.7-2,857.8-51.2-2,256.8-3,043.6 T,399.7 -3,236.1-3,506.4-2,396.0-1,740.0 608.7-456.1-3,560.8-4,570.01. GNPGNP812.9021986100.011.424.920.925.16.62.67.00.90.81988100.011.022.120.326.57.63.07.61.10.81990100.011.519.
4、220.727.58.82.86.91.51.01992100.012.715.320.829.68.64.06.12.20.71994100.011.817.620.925.68.74.56.14.10.61995100.011.614.118.722.912.13.46.210.20.61996100.013.215.520.317.915.73.77.45.80.51997100.013.015.520.015.715.73.79.66.20.71998100.012.915.720.716.814.23.89.45.80.81999100.013.614.020.917.113.74.
5、48.86.90.62000100.014.911.420.915.116.93.48.48.60.42001100.010.515.416.416.118.41.88.811.21.52.1199520021.360.7888536.5%4.1%91610245923539372533909192932.9303.2183.0573.3653.1683.540-288-308-372243-45-353-725091 102002844.25%8419984.25%4.55%200249192939495-45-308T72-439-51046112114117119103030303060
6、184188192196718950-52-217M SA20002000199820011.42.21.21.62001AGK 19921989OASDIHI1995G okhale and K otlikoff 1998 G okhale et al. 19991999G okhale et al.1995AGK 19951993K him pes 20012.2200020002120002001200020% 25%903000150% 90750010%75020%40%60015040080%20%300020%40%6520011303000200020002003b5750(1
7、)B oil et al 19941992A guhik, C andarelli and Sefton 2000G reen Paper7009.8%7.4%2060GDP 0.7%3.1AGK 19912003a 2003b1994 A uerbach and K otlikoff 1999火N” 必=64+力1 k+D A-f+1ENik = kGs =sr=therate of discountprelax real interest rateNt.kG4m = MJ%心 ktt13AGK 1991 1994(n A、30X Ml -r 匕E+l，十，/psf+1GA+“,广t+1t+
8、1051,0002001120679.33557.5057.91167.4242.28138.4267.7369.1462.6184.715723.26548.4968.27197.6249.84163.3165.5881.5673.8083.3410765.45538.6080.76234.0158.96193.3274.5596.5287.2981.8415816.96528.2095.51278.0369.95229.6586.28114.61103.2380.2620864.79*518.47113.79315.8282.99268.9598.61135.00122.8378.7825
9、840.31505.92133.10302.0595.51277.47108.12143.17145.5876.8730766.24488.84149.60265.21103.84255.33113.32138.24170.7474.2835658.71468.65153.69226.62108.23214.11119.32125.71196.3671.2140532.70444.60153.83183.38106.82173.87129.83117.02215.3967.5545385.71416.79152.61136.83103.78124.92141.85106.76237.2963.
10、3350218.08385.72143.7790.0795.6081.10153.5896.17269.8358.615547.30349.33130.4055.2477.0340.69163.4768.35320.5153.0860436.01309.79110.1928.6057.2019.12172.6054.60386.6447.0765-290.73266.7190.4811.2741.828.27177.2517.19474.3140.5270-289.61221.9373.330.0028.613.12174.705.28402.9333.7275-245.27174.6259.
11、410.0024.341.93161.284.43313.3326.5380-150.58129.7041.370.0011.790.98138.803.54172.3819.7185-91.1483.2421.320.008.200.4585.074.00102.6312.6590-43.2220.090.000.000.350.0025.506.8028.313.052288.67九二3.440 = 1.4511111118=0.015 r=0.051013.30% 14.14%12.77%200242.31%231%231%4.2g=0.01 0.015 0.02i=0.03 0.05g
12、 rg=0.01r=0.071.28 6g=0.02i=0.05020011.37%45.06% 46.86%0239%0.075.48 k2.37 人1.69 10%NTRg 0.01g 0.015g 0.02r 0.030.050.07r 0.030.050.07r 0.030.050.07N%；12.6714.7017.4312.2014.1416.6111.7313.6115.88NTR33.3853.6191.5129.8746.8678.8026.9241.1868.110163265425145231374130203329NT乩10.4513.6717.929.7212.771
13、6.669.0111.9315.52NTRh27.5349.8594.1023.8142.3179.0320.6936.1066.550163265425145231374130203329NTR11.6113.9617.1311.0613.3016.1710.5212.6915.32NTR；?31.0252.1692.7527.4045.0679.0424.3839.1667.5901672744421482393891322093411. NTR 短NTR NTR短 NTR黑NTR NTR；?200120022.0备）1010.52% 17.13%24.38% 92.75%132% 442
14、%130% 425%g=0.015r=0.055.16% 320075.33%20125.86%20176%20075.33%20125.86%20176.55%20227.28%116%3.443.67282.8292.8332.5345.8228.9235.4111.000onni0821.00986.91679.33797.91964.08656.31782.99949.58641.195893.001091.62723.26867.561066.69697.67851.121050.70681.0510968.771207.44765.45939.941179.29736.36922.
15、051161.57718.62151059.911345.57816.961027.711314.15784.541008.281294.53765.74201159.081492.97864.79*1123.671458.18829.49*1102.381436.63809.03*251226.77*1612.80*840.311188.22*1574.34*802.601161.95*1550.92*780.16301225.961607.38766.241184.181565.27725.961159.141540.30701.69351143.461483.72658.711098.0
16、81437.95615.111071.661411.89589.30401002.951284.82532.70953.911235.50485.53926.681209.00458.6845786.161003.11385.71733.88950.73335.32706.81924.79308.3950535.68691.97218.08480.88637.32165.17455.38613.21139.7055198.70320.8247.30142.88265.30-6.54121.02244.80-28.4360-124.19-75.31-136.01-178.93-129.57-18
17、8.64-195.05-144.51-201.8965-403.36474.16-290.73-453.80-524.30-338.83-462.75-532.57-317.8170379.42420.76-289.64-421.04-163.10-329.52-423.57465.55-332.0675341.00-389.06吃45.27-370.65-420.31-273.24-370.65420.31-273.2480N63.01-353.70-150.58-279.73-372.01-165.68史 79.73-672.01-165.6885-184.81-285.17-91.14-
18、190.31-291.66-95.76-190.31-291.66-95.7690-80.04-137.94M3.22-80.01-137.94-43.22-80.04-137.94-13.222828.043325.442288.672928.303457.952353.952979.133529.012382.85九二 3.44X =3.67X =3.80200220075.33% 20125.86%20176%20075.33% 20125.86%20176.55% 20227.28%2.*113.443.80282.8297.9352.944228.9238.31245.06239%4
19、6.66%47.47%332.55261%274%46.86%48.72%49.73%42.31%43.51%44.05%12NTRgK13.3014.1412.7745.0646.8642.3112.9213.8112.3346.6648.7243.5112.6813.6012.0547.4749.7344.0562392312312612532532742662661. NTR。、 NTRQ2 2001 20022.05.220007,5003,00020001320006616520312003b60、756520%20017762,402g= 0.015 r=0.05250=3.442
20、031302000=2.562929657686520313,85713LOOOonniAB0821.00986.91679.33901.461078.41741.39847.061031.33679.05942.081150.81748.195893.001091.62723.26987.581199.22796.15924.351144.51723.651036.481285.56805.2110968.771207.44765.451080.271334.54851.271006.611270.74766.761139.561438.27863.28151059.911345.57816
21、.961191.281495.17917.771105.501420.99819.611262.801619.41933.56201159.081192.97864.79*1313.811668.53983.64*1214.061582.63869.23*1395.041812.94997.96*251226.77*1612.80*840.311408.201818.72979.101293.051719.80846.901487.501973.20978.79301225.961607.38766.241435.49*1846.36*924.621304.20*1733.79*773.871498.69*1994.07*898.44351143.461483.72658.711381.001759.79832.011232.461632.43661.601420.551889.96775.81401002.951284.82532.701267.141602.21713.791100.921459.27523.601280.091707.83629.