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1、40.6,723,15.7,24 August 2012 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Diversified Metals in other words, risk. The way to think about it is that one would rather take 10% forecast return from a stock that has 20% volatility, than from the stock that has 40% volatility. The shaded area shows the one st
2、andard deviation range based on past 12 months volatility. In statistical terms, once you make a number of brave assumptions, there is a 68% probability that the share price will end up inside that range in 12 months time. 52wk Hi-Lo is maximum and minimum daily closing price over the past 52 weeks.
3、 It is often handy to know the price momentum especially when the stock is trading close to its highs and lows: Is the stock trading close to its peak? Is the momentum against the stock? *Consensus is IBES consensus supplied by Thomson Reuters. IBES is a survey of sell side research analysts, collec
4、ting a few dozen data points such as EPS, DPS, Sales, Target Price, ROE and so on. *Mean is the average of target returns, while the shaded area around the mean represents the range of estimates from the lowest to the highest estimate. This aids visualisation of a number of important factors such as
5、: the range of analyst estimates; where Credit Suisses estimates on this stock sit relative to consensus; and where the share price is relative to consensus mean and consensus range target. Target return is calculated as capital gain plus forecast dividend yield (net) over the next 12 months. For “C
6、S tgt” we have used Credit Suisses target price and Credit Suisse forecast for 12-month forward dividend, grossed up for franking. For the consensus mean and range, we have used consensus target price and consensus dividend forecasts for 12 month forward. Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclos
7、ures I, Matthew Hope, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
8、this report. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names. 3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for ILU.AX,ILU.AX,Closing,Target,Date 29-Nov-10 11-Jan-11,Price (A$) 7.59 8.44,Price Initiation/ (A$) Rating Assumption 9.2 O X 12.3,23 18,18,21,21 20,24 23,20 18,20-Ja
9、n-11,8.9,14,16,13-Apr-11 25-May-11,13.84 15.16,15.6 18.1,13,14 12,15-Jul-11 27-Jul-11 22-Nov-11 8-Dec-11,17.89 18.7 14.71 16.68,20.5 21 20 21,8 A$ 3,9 29-Nov-10,O,18-Jan-12 24-Feb-12,16.5 16.65,23.5 23,5-Jul-12 9-Jul-12,11.63 8.88,19.5 17.8,Closing Price,Target Price,Initiation/Assumption,Rating,O=O
10、utperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisses total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisses investme
11、nt banking activities. Analysts stock ratings are defined as follows: Outperform (O): The stocks total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* by at least 10-15% (or more, depending on perceived risk) over the next 12 months. Neutral (N): The stocks total return is expected to be in
12、 line with the relevant benchmark* (range of 10-15%) over the next 12 months. Underperform (U): The stocks total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* by 10-15% or more over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 29th May 2009, Australia, New Zealand, U.S. and
13、Canadian ratings are based on (1) a stocks absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stocks total return potential within an analysts coverage universe*, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Und
14、erperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. Some U.S. and Canadian ratings may fall outside the absolute total return ranges defined above, depending on market conditions and industry Iluka Resources (ILU.AX / ILU AU),46%,42%,10%,11,24 August 2012 factors. For Latin American, Japanese,
15、 and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stocks total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; for European stocks, ratings are based on a stocks total return relative to the analysts coverage universe*. For Australian and New Zealand stock
16、s, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stoc
17、k rating definition, respectively. *An analysts coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. Restricted (R): In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an i
18、nvestment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisses engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances. Volatility Indicator V: A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 mont
19、hs or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward. Analysts coverage universe weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the expected performance of an analysts coverage universe* versus the relevant broad market benchmark*: Overweight: Industry expected to out
20、perform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. *An a
21、nalysts coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. *The broad market benchmark is based on the expected return of the local market index (e.g., the S however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (
22、Please refer to definitions above.) An investors decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors. Credit Suisses policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, t
23、he sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisses policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit,Suisses,Policies,for,Managing,C
24、onflicts,of,Interest,in,connection,with,Investment,Research:,http:/ Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties. See the Companie
25、s Mentioned section for full company names. Price Target: (12 months) for (ILU.AX) Method: Our Iluka Resources (ILU.AX) target price is A$13.50/share, derived from our our DCF sum of the parts valuation with a 20% discount applied. Our DCF valauation for the mineral sands operations uses a discount
26、rate of 9.5% pa (nominal terms) derived from a post tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC) under the following assumptions: Risk free rate of 5.3%; a market premium of 6%; Beta of 1.1; a targeted debt/equity ratio of 30/70 and 5.5% pa interest rate. Our nominal discount rate for the MAC royalty
27、 is 6.3% pa, being 100bp above the risk free rate as discussed in our initiation report. Risks: The critical risks to Iluka achieving the target price of $13.50/share relate to mineral sands sales volumes, the prices that can be acheived for zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile, currency assumptions,
28、 operational issues related to mine projects, and cost issues in general. Please refer to the firms disclosure website at www.credit- for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names. The subj
29、ect company (ILU.AX) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (ILU.AX) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banki
30、ng services, which may include Sales and Trading services, to the subject company (ILU.AX) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (ILU.AX) within the next 3 months. Important Regional Disclosures
31、 Singapore recipients should contact a Singapore financial adviser for any matters arising from this research report. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (ILU.AX) within the past 12 months. Iluka Resources (ILU.AX
32、/ ILU AU),12,24 August 2012,Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS-Non-Voting shares; RVS-Restricted Voting Shares; SVS-Subordinate Voting Shares.,Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Cr
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36、y not be reprinted without permission of CS. Reports written by Taiwan-based analysts on non-Taiwan listed companies are not considered recommendations to buy or sell securities under Taiwan Stock Exchange Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Custom
37、ers. To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors:,The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research
38、 analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst
39、 account. Matthew Hope, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited. Paul McTaggart, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited. Martin Kronborg, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by
40、 Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited.,For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at www.credit- or call +1 (877) 291-2683. Disclaimers continue on next page.,Iluka Resources (ILU.AX / ILU AU),24 August 2012 Asia Pacific/Austr
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