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1、Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟 November 2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟, MYPM.NET,2,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,3,The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management,1952, Modern Portfolio
2、Theory (MPT), Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection 1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets 1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the s
3、election and management of IT projects. 1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions. Present, portfolio management as central elements of good investment
4、 management,4,Portfolio Management, the overall picture,Focus (Strategic Planning ),Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne Bridges,Select (Portfolio Management),Manage (Project Management),5,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market
5、Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,6,The Old Philosophy about Portfolio,Dont put all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.,7,Return and Risk in Financial Market,expected return,standard deviation (%),capital appreciation,growth of income,0
6、6 12 18 24 30 36,20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0,income,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-term government bonds,long-term government bonds,long-term corporate bonds,large company stocks,small company stocks,stability of principal,8,The Role of Combining Securities,The expected return of a portfolio is a we
7、ighted average of the component expected returns.,The Role of Combining Securities,10,The total risk of a portfolio comes from the variance of the components and from the relationships among the components.,10,The Role of Combining Securities,expected return,risk,better performance,A portfolio domin
8、ates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.,The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.,11,The Efficient Frontier : Optimum Div
9、ersification of Risky Assets,expected return,risk (standard deviation of returns),impossible portfolios,dominated portfolios,efficient frontier,The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given return The optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier,12,The Efficient Fro
10、ntier vs Naive Diversification,As portfolio size increases, total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.,total risk,Non-diversifiable risk,number of securities,Naive diversification is the
11、random selection of portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.,13,Risk Reduction with Diversification,14,Market or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market index Unsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro factor or market
12、 index Total risk = Systematic + Unsystematic,Components of Risk,15,Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations,16,Relationship depends on correlation coefficient -1.0 +1.0 The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potential If= +1.0, no risk reduction is possible,Portfolio
13、 Risk/Return, Correlation Effects,17,Structuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocation,individual choice asset class mix investment results,18,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,19,What is project port
14、folio management,Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right thing, sele
15、cting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.,20,Portfolio Management is:,Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieve Understanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing a
16、s opposed to something else Identifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impacts Monitoring portfolio perf
17、ormance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectives Achieving a desired objective have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made,21,Portfolio Management is Not,Doing a s
18、eries of project specific calculations and analyses, such as return on investment, benefit-cost analysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting them all to account for risk. these are project specific Collecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a re
19、port that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.,22,The benefits of Portfolio Management,Having a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projects Placing resources where it matters, reducing wasteful spending Linking p
20、ortfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goals Establishing logic, reasoning, and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisions Establishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels,23,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management i
21、n Financial Market Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,24,Project Portfolio Management, Process & Technique,Four steps Project Evaluation Matrix Evaluation Criteria Examples,25,Step 1: Define the Portfolio,First, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be used to
22、 initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio. The mission statement can be simple, like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.,26,Step 2: Gather the Projects,Now, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfo
23、lio. This may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts of the organization.,27,Step 3: Begin Weeding,Once the project list is established, begin weeding the list down. Remove projects that: Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportun
24、ity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project. Do not meet the mission area. Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.,28,Step 4: Begin Evaluating,Once the portfolio list is set, begin e
25、valuating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like. Using the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the projects against two major criteria: What are the potential risks in implementing this project? What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?,29,Project Ev
26、aluation Matrix,30,Using the Matrix,The matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project. Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores. Projects a
27、re then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.,31,Matrix Decision Regions,Projects to remove from the portfolio,Projects to keep in the portfolio,32,Evaluation Criteria,The Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and Benefit. Five sample risk
28、 areas: Risk of Completion On Time (Schedule Risk) Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations (Organizational Risk) Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk) Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It) Projects Implementation and Maintenance Costs Five sample
29、 benefit areas: Number of potential groups or users needing application Projects Impact on Cross-Functional Activities Projects Impact on Improving Internal Culture Projects Impact on Improving External Customer Service Estimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits),33,Risk Assessment S
30、corecard- illustration,34,Benefits Assessment Scorecard - illustration,35,Plot the Project on the Matrix,Our Low Risk/ Low Benefit Project Might Be Rejected or Delayed,Our High Risk/ High Benefit Project Might Be Approved,36,What is the difference,Portfolio Management in the financial market Project management,37,Questions and Answers,38,Thank You! 李俊伟 Contact at: george.leeTalentA,Room 318, JinOu Plaza, #2 An Zhen Li, Chaoyang, Beijing, China 100029 Tel +86-10 6443 7361. 6443 7362 Fax +86-10 6443 7363,