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1、BP,6,6,F,6,7,7,8,8,F,8,9,Q Q Q F Q Q Q Q F,2,0,9,0,0,1,1,2,2,F,4,Deutsche Bank Markets Research,Rating Buy Europe United Kingdom,Company BP,Date 18 October 2012 Company Update,Oil & Gas Integrated Oils,Reuters BP.L,Bloomberg BP/ LN,Exchange Ticker LSE BP,Price at 16 Oct 2012 (GBP) Price Target (GBP)
2、 52-week range (GBP),439.00 500.00 504.60 - 391.95,Turning point in the GoM,Lucas Herrmann, ACA,Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-73636 Early days but there are now clear signs of improvement,Key to near term price performance may be the outcome of events in both Russia and with the DoJ. More recent pro
3、duction data from the US GoM suggests, however, that BPs operating performance in this key region is now at an inflexion point with the potential for forecast upside in 2013 as the capture of additional gross margin drops through to the earnings line. No doubt investors will adopt their own view on
4、quite how to treat the elephants. Operationally, however, our sense is that it is now time to be more constructive,Mark Bloomfield, ACA Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-57905 Price/price relative,on forward performance. On higher 13 EPS we move to a 500p PT. Retained the costs, lost the barrels Central
5、 to the poverty associated with BPs profit performance over the past three years has been the Macondo-related collapse in its US GoM production. Against the backcloth of a c250kboe/d fall in GoM output since Q1 2010, per barrel US E&P margins have fallen from $37/bbl to just $11/bbl in the most rece
6、nt quarter despite a c$10/bbl uplift in average hydrocarbon realizations. No,700 600 500 400 300 200 10/09,4/10,10/10,4/11,10/11,4/12,doubt some increase in costs has played its role. Most significant in our view,however, has been the loss of c$6bn of oil related gross margin from facilities,FTSE 10
7、0 INDEX (Rebased),the full cost of which remains in place. Restore this margin in full and we see $3bn upside to our 2015 EBIT estimates (or 8% on 15 earnings). Gaining the barrels, limited incremental cost With this in mind key in our opinion to an improvement in BPs near term profit,Performance (%
8、) Absolute FTSE 100 INDEX,1m 3.0 0.7,3m 1.6 4.0,12m 4.9 9.3,performance and ability to deliver earnings upside is the restoration of volumes,in its heartland US business. As such, we find the most recent data on US GoM performance of significant encouragement suggesting as it does that,BP: US E&P EB
9、IT margins and prices,post the start-up of Galapagos and return to production of major assets Mad Dog and Atlantis, BPs GoM production is now at an inflexion point. Moreover, with the operated portfolio now concentrated on four major producing assets and the rigs available to it at an all time high,
10、 we feel greater confidence that given enhanced focus the now evident momentum can be expected to build.,$/boe 95.00 85.00 75.00 65.00 55.00,Blended hydrocarbon price EBIT margin/boe Integrity programme announced,$ margin/boe 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00,Valuation & risk. Target from 480p to
11、500p We remain of the view that BPs assets are undervalued. This, our more constructive view on the GoM production and the potential for sentiment enhancing resolution in Russia and the US drive our Buy stance. We target a,45.00 35.00 25.00 15.00 Q 1 0,Q 3 0,Y 0,Q 2 0,Q 4 0,Q 1 0,Q 3 0,Y 0,Q 2 0,By
12、2015 the $10/boe margin gap is worth $3bn to US upstream EBIT 4 1 3 Y 2 4 1 3 Y 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 E E,Y 1 E,20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00,10% discount to the 2013 sector multiple of 9x 2013 EPS suggestive of a fair share price of c500p. Key risks include negative outcomes on Russia and DoJ. Forecasts And Ratios,Source: DB estimates,Year End Dec 31 DB EPS (USD) % Change P/E (x) DPS (USD) Dividend Yield (%),