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1、3600,3200,2800,Anglo American,Deutsche Bank Markets Research,Rating Buy Europe United Kingdom,Company Anglo American,Date 28 January 2013 Results,Metals but with Iron Ore (-,Key changes Target Price Price/price relative,2,230.00 to 2,200.00,-1.3%,28%), Platinum (-33%) and Nickel (-18%) reporting vol
2、ume declines. Anglos result will likely lead to continued group cost pressure and relative to peers this was not a strong result, although expectations were low.,Limited newsflow expected until 1H13 results Given the appointment of Mark Cutifani as CEO, we expect a quiet period from Anglo until his
3、first public comments at the interim results (100 day view). At,2400 2000 1600 1/10,7/10,1/11,7/11,1/12,7/12,the FY12 results we expect some noise on write-ups and impairments with a,De Beers write-up (US$7bn, co guidance) offset by write-downs of Platinum,FTSE 100 INDEX (Rebased),US$1bn, announced)
4、, Amapa (US$200m, DBe) and potentially Minas Rio. The Minas Rio BV is US$8.5bn (DBe), versus our valuation of US$1bn, thus a write- down is likely in our view but may not be to the extent of our estimates given the possible introduction of a JV partner as one way of de-risking the project.,Performan
5、ce (%) Absolute FTSE 100 INDEX,1m 0.3 5.5,3m 1.5 8.3,12m -29.0 9.8,Earnings and NAV changes: Earnings up c.4%, NAV down 2% Earnings changes reflect the better than expected Copper, Met Coal and Diamonds result offset by the weaker Platinum earnings and NPV assumed post the operational review announc
6、ed recently. Target price trimmed to 2200p, (29500 SAc); recommendation Buy, Risks Our price target reflects a valuation taking into consideration both DCF over life-of-mine (9.5% WACC - Beta 1.25, ERP 4.5%, Rf 5%, COD 6% on a through- the-cycle target gearing of 30%) for core asset valuations and m
7、arket values or peer group multiples for non-core assets. We apply a 0.9x NAV multiple to reflect managements performance relative to the broader Metals and Mining sector. Risks include stronger-than-expected operating currencies (Rand, A$) and lower commodity prices, in particular PGMs, copper and
8、iron ore. Specific risks include further cost increases or delays at Minas Rio, the implementation risks of the Platinum operational review and delays to project approvals Forecasts And Ratios,Year End Dec 31 DB EPS (USD) % Change P/E (DB EPS) (x),2010A 4.01 0.0% 10.3,2011A 5.06 0.0% 8.9,2012E 1.75
9、3.3% 17.1,2013E 1.94 4.5% 15.4,2014E 2.23 -5.1% 13.4,Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data _ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
10、could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,28 January 2013 Metals as a result, the recommendations may differ an
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