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1、90,75,60,Deutsche Bank Markets Research,Rating Hold North America United States,Company Mosaic,Date 4 January 2013 Results,Industrials Chemicals / Commodity,Reuters MOS.N,Bloomberg MOS UN,Exchange Ticker NYS MOS,Price at 7 Jan 2013 (USD) Price target 52-week range,58.71 62.00 61.05 - 45.62,Potash Pr
2、icing Headwinds Likely to Keep Shares Rangebound Buybacks likely to begin mid-13 but pricing tepid and valuation fair. Hold Mosaic shares rose 3% following a roughly in-line FQ2. While the company outlook is becoming more positive as they will be able to begin buying back stock beginning in May 13 (
3、we expect them to re-purchase $1.25B of stock 14) after restrictions stemming from the May 2011 Cargill Transaction lapse, and ag fundamentals remain robust owing to i) solid crop pricing, ii) historically low stocks-to-use levels and iii) a 2nd straight year of record farm income in 12, with near-t
4、erm potash pricing headwinds pressuring margins and valuation a fair 12.4x 13E EPS, we maintain our Hold rating. FQ2 roughly in-line. Lower tax rate adds $0.12 Mosaic reported FQ2 EPS of $1.05, down 25%. While $0.12 above consensus, the entire upside was due to a lower than expected tax rate added $
5、0.12. Sales fell 16% to $2.5B on lower phosphate and potash volumes as well as lower phosphate pricing. In FQ3, Mosaic expects phosphates volumes of 2.5MM- 2.8MM m.t. vs 3.0MM m.t. in FQ2 and lower DAP pricing ($485-$515/m.t. vs $544/m.t. in FQ2). Phosphate operating rates in FQ3 are projected at 80
6、%+ vs 86% in FQ2. Mosaic expects potash pricing to fall in FQ3 (MOP price of $370-,David Begleiter, CFA Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-5473 Ramanan Sivalingam Associate Analyst ( ) 212 250-8619 Jermaine Brown Research Associate (+1) 212 250-3624 jermaine- Price/price relative,$400/m.t. vs $443/m.t. i
7、n Q2) due to a larger portion of standard product sales. FQ3 Potash volumes are expected to be 1.5-1.8MM m.t. vs 1.5MM m.t. in FQ2 with operating rates of 70%+ vs 76% in FQ2.,45 30 1/10,7/10,1/11,7/11,1/12,7/12,Key Takeaways 1) Fertilizer demand in the western hemisphere is strong, as evidenced by,M
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