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1、人口老龄化对就业的影响的因素我国未来劳动力市场和就业情况 :一是直接改变劳动力供给的总量和结构,并影响劳动力生产率的提高 ;二是通过消费结构和生产结构的调整来简介影响劳动需求,同时养老保障责任的加重也推动了劳动力成本的提高 .劳动力供给 :人口老龄化改变了劳动力供给的年龄结构,从而使得劳动力供给在数量上和结构上发生变化 .从三个方面说 :一是数量 ,人口老龄化讲带来劳动力供给的相对减少.劳动力供给与劳动适龄人口之间的比例关系相对比较稳定 ,因此劳动力供给与劳动适龄人口的总量的关联度较高.在人口规模既定不变的条件下 ,如果出生率下降速度地狱老龄化速度的话,那么人口老龄化讲导致劳动适龄人口在总人口
2、中的比重呈下降趋势,从而似的劳动力的供给总量出现减少.二是结构 ,人口老龄化提高了劳动力的平均年龄.与人口老龄化相伴随的是人口出生率的下降 ,这降低了新增劳动力的增长速度.当劳动力新增数量地狱退出数量 .新增速度慢于退出速度时 ,劳动力市场上年轻的劳动力的数量将越来越少,这必然使得劳动力的平均年龄越来越大 .1999 年我国劳动适应人口中 45 岁以上的比重为 24%,据预测 ,这一比重到 2040 年将上升至 37%左右 ,从而成为劳动力资源的主要组成部分 .三是就业方式 ,人口老龄化似的灵活就业更为普遍.出于多方面因素的考虑 ,很多老年人往往退而不休 .人口老龄化带来老年人口的不断增多,重
3、返劳动力市场的老年人口也在迅速增加 ,他们进入劳动力市场的形势灵活多样.老年人口较少像退休前一样进行正规就业,而是选择返聘 ,兼职 ,顾问和自由职业等方式 .根据自身条件提供相应的劳动服务 .劳动力需求 : 劳动力需求是社会对物质产品和服务需求的派生性需求 ,反映出经济社 会发展对劳动力的吸纳能力 .因此 ,人口老龄化对劳动力需求的影响也是间接的 ,通过社会 总消费和消费结构的变化老增加劳动力需求 .首先 ,人口老龄化促进社会总消费的增加,提高用人单位的劳动力需求 .通常来说 ,老年人口的边际消费倾向显著高于劳动适龄人口,人口老龄化将提高社会整体平均消费倾向,从而促进社会总消费的增长 .社会总
4、消费的增长需要更多的物质产品和服务与之相对应,在现有劳动力比较紧张的情况下 ,引进劳动力和提高劳动生产率成为用人单位的主要选择,从而带来劳动力需求总量的提高 .其次 ,人口老龄化刺激老年产业的发展,开辟了劳动力需求的新领域 .随着人口老龄化进程的加快 ,老年人口的消费需求和服务需求将会得到极大的增加, 如老年护理 ,老年娱乐和老年产品等 ,以满足老年人的多样化需求 .在市场经济发达国家 ,伴随人口老龄化而来的 ” 银色产业 ”已经有了显著发展 ,并行程了新的经济增长点 .老年服务业大多属于劳动密集型 行业 ,劳动力需求量比较大 ,也为社会创造了大量的就业机会 .Population Aging
5、 ' s Factors affecting EmploymentOur country 'fusture labor force market and employment situation: on one hand, total supply and structure of labor force is directly changed and production rate of labor forces is affected; on the other hand, the demand for labor forces is indirectly affected
6、 through adjustment of consumption structure and production structure while the cost of labor force is also improved by enhanced pension guarantee responsibility.2 Labor force supplies: Population aging change the age structure of labor force supply so that changes in labor force supply number occur
7、s.From three perspectives:I. Number: Population aging will result into relatively few supply of labor force. As the proportion between labor force supply and labor age population is comparatively stable, labor force supply is highly connected with total number of labor age population. Under the circ
8、umstance of fixed population scale, population aging will lead to decreasing tendency of labor age population in the total population in the event that decreasing speed of birth rate is lower than aging speed, so that total number of labor force supply.II. Structure: Population aging advances averag
9、e age of labor force. Decreasing population birth rate accompanying population aging reduces the increasing speed of new labor forces. While the number of new labor forces is lower than the number of labor forceswithdr'awal from labor market, thenew number is slower than withdrawal speed. The de
10、creasing number of young labor forces in labor market will inevitably result into gradually older average age of labor forces. It is predicated that Proportion of labor forces above 45 amongst the labor age populations in 1999 will rise to about 37% in 2040, thus being a component part of labor forc
11、e resources.III. Employment Mode: Population aging like flexible employment is more popular. Given that many aspects of factors are taken into account, many old people usually don' tstop working to lead a leisure life. Population aging brings about an increasing number of old people as the numbe
12、r of old people returning the labor market is rapidly on the increase. The way they enter into the labor market is flexible and diversified. As different from formal employment before retirement, the old people choose approaches such as: return for interview, consultant and free lance, etc. to prove
13、d corresponding services according to their self conditions.Demand for labor forces: Demand for labor forces refers to the society 's derived demand for material products & services, manifesting absorption capacity of economic society to labor forces. Thereby, population aging indirectly aff
14、ects the demand for labor forces, increasing demand for labor forces through changes of the society's total consumption and consumptionstructure.Firstly, population aging promotes increasing total social consumption and advances employer ' sdemand for labor forc es. Generally, the marginal c
15、onsumption of the elder population tends to be remarkably higher than that of labor age population. Increase in total social consumption requires more material products and services to be balanced with other. Introducing labor force and improving labor production rate is the main choice for employer
16、s under the condition of relatively strict labor forces, so that total demand for labor forces is improved.Secondly, Population aging stimulates the development of the elderly industry and creates new fields of demand for labor forces. As population aging process is hastened, the elderly population&
17、#39;s demand for consumption and service such as: elderly care, elderly entertainment and elderly products, etc. will be greatly increased to satisfy the elderly diversified demands. In developed countries, “ SilverIndustry ”accompanying population aging has remarkably developed and undergone new economic growth point. Most elderly services belong to labor intensive industries with larger demand for labor forces and create a large number of opportunities.