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1、外文翻译-隐蔽性通货膨胀的影响及其应用 本科毕业论文设计外 文 翻 译外文出处 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg2021173-182 外文作者 Cengiz KahramanTufan Demireland Nihan Demirel 原文Effects of Inflation under Fuzziness and Some ApplicationsAbstractThis chapter presents the ways of incorporating the parameter fuzzy inflation to the engineering
2、 economy analyses Inflation is a financial parameter difficult to estimate The fuzzy set theory gives us the possibility of converting linguistic expressions about inflation estimates to numerical values In the chapter discounted cash flow techniques including these fuzzy expressions and some numeri
3、cal examples are given The obtained results show the interval of the worst and the best possible outcomes when fuzzy inflation rates are taken into account 1 IntroductionInflation is an increase in the amount of money necessary to obtain the same amount of product or service before the inflated pric
4、e was present With the inflation in anytime prices rise and the purchasing power decreases it takes more dollars for the same amount of goods or services Deflation is the opposite of inflation It has the oppositeeffects with deflation prices decrease and the purchasing power increases With the defla
5、tion it takes fewer dollars in the future to buy the same amount of goods or services as it does today The governments can be face to face with the inflation much more commonly than deflation at national economy Blank and Tarquin 2002Sharp-Bette and Park 1990 Degarmo et al 1990 Gnen 1990 Young 1993
6、Most people are undoubtedly aware that inflation has to do with price increases What is perhaps less well-known is that the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat over time Originally the word inflation was used to describe a characteristic of money that its value was eroded This happens
7、 when all prices in an economy rise at the same rate over time When all prices rise at the same ratehouseholds incomes for example wages increase as much as their expenses This means that households have to pay more for the same quantity of goods Howeverneither household consumption nor its actual v
8、alue utility is affected when all prices rise at the same rateOver time however the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat Today it is often used synonymously with the words price increase and can there by describe any kind of price rises not just increases in all prices For example one
9、often hears of wage inflation domestic inflation or imported inflation None of these terms mean an increase in all prices Rather they refer to rises in the prices of certain specific goods or servicesThe most common and most well-known measure of inflation is the change in the consumer price index -
10、 the CPI The CPI is a so-called cost-of-living index or compensation index This means that the CPI measures how consumers cost of living changes over time If consumers incomes increase at the same rate as their cost of living their utility will be unchanged over time The CPI is often used for exactl
11、y this purpose - as a basis for adjusting pensions or determining how compensation clauses in different agreements should be interpretedTo adjust for the effects of inflation in project evaluation most authors prefer to use a general index such as the Consumers Price Index The reason is as follows S
12、ince it is the investors real income or purchasing power that we seek to enhancethere is a slight advantage in choosing an index of Consumer Goods prices such as the CPI The changeable value of currency is the reason of inflation With the inflation the currency value goes down The inflation and defl
13、ation can be occurred as higher prices for food cars and other purchased commodities and services for the people On the other hand for the business and government inflation has eroded the purchasingpower of savings and earnings if interest rates and salary raises have not kept pace with general pric
14、e trends Inflation types are shown belowCost push inflation Increases in producers costs that are passed along to customerssometimes with disproportionate escalations that push prices up Demand-pull inflation Excessive spending power of consumers sometimes obtained at the expense of savings that pul
15、ls prices upWhen the literature is searched we can see that there are few works on fuzzy inflationKahraman and Tolga 1995 examine the effects of fuzzy inflation rate on aftertaxrate calculations De and Goswami 2006 present an EOQ model with fuzzyinflation rate and fuzzy deterioration rate when a del
16、ay in payment is permissible2 Relation between Inflation and InterestInflation affects everyone with some degree The degree of inflation affects the consequences when inflation is mild the economy prospers When inflation is moderateincreased demand pulls prices still higher When inflation is severe
17、prices rise much faster than wages do When inflation is hyperinflation this is the most dangerous level of inflation this uncontrolled inflation destroys a nations economy Park2006 Hyperinflation is a problem in countries where political instability overspending by the government weak international
18、trade balances etc is present Sharp-Betteand Park 1990 When the government has inflation in its economy first of all it pays attention to credit restrictions wage controls contraction of the money supply reduction in demand by raising taxes increased demand by reducing taxes enlarged supply of goods
19、 through greater productivity stimulated by investment incentives and wage-price guidelines backed by political persuasion to manage inflation and its effects on the economy Park 2006 On the other hand the government can redefine the currency in terms of the currency of another country control banks
20、 and corporations and control of the flow of capital into and out of the country in order to decrease inflation Sharp-Bette and Park 1990 Most of the engineering economists are more interested in the effects of inflation than its causes and corrections Due to inflation a dollar assumes different val
21、ues at different times The dollars do not have the same value for yesterday today and tomorrow The engineering economists have to predict the dollars values and organize their works by concerning with inflation and also they have to research what would happen if inflation became high level such as m
22、oderate or severe21 Inflation MeasurementThe measurement of inflation is difficult because the prices of different goods and services do not increase or decrease by the same amount they change at different times by the different amounts The calculation of a general inflation rate can be changed by g
23、eographical differences in prices and different buying habits of consumersThe whole sale price index producer price index and consumer price index are used for the measurement of inflation rates The consumer price index is the most commonly used technique for the inflation rate measurementThe whole
24、sale price index WPI This index measures inflation at the whole sale level for both consumer and industrial goodsProducer price index PPI This index measures average changes in prices receivedby producers of all commodities On the other hand PPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid fo
25、r selected goods and services used by producers Blank and Tarquin 2002 Consumer price index CPI For calculation of CPI prices for goods are obtained monthly and are averaged according to demographic distributions Then the prices are weighted according to the expenditure proportions of the typical fa
26、mily Park2006 CPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by ultimate consumers Blank and Tarquin 2002 In CPI seven different things are measured as fixed market basket of goods foods and beverageshousing apparel and upkeep transportation medical care
27、 entertainment and other education personal care etc This index shows the effect of retail price changes on a selected standard of living22 Impact of InflationThe analysts have to be interested in the impact of inflation on economic evaluations There are two basic methods for researchers in the lite
28、rature for consideration of inflation in their calculationsConstant real dollars All cash flows are converted to money units that have constant purchasing power for eliminating inflation effects It is generally easier to estimate future costs in constant dollars because the estimator is familiar wit
29、h todays values On the other hand there are two weaknesses limiting the usefulness of the constant dollar tax effects are ignored and no provision is made for differences inescalation rates among price and cost components Biermann and Smidt 1990 It is denoted RFuture dollars In the amount of money u
30、nits that are called future dollars actually exchanged at the time of each transaction for estimating cash flows Future dollars are sometimes called then-current dollars nominal dollars or actual dollars It is denoted as AIt is a simple matter to convert estimates in real dollar flow to actual dolla
31、r flow when inflation is assumed to be a constant rate To make comparisons between monetary amounts which occur in different time periods the different-valued dollars must first be converted to constant value dollars in order to represent the same purchasing power over time Sharp-Bette and Park 1990
32、 As an economic evaluation when the rate of inflation increases there is a corresponding increase in the market interest rate Inflation is differential rather than uniform Goods and services prices do not always change proportionately Including the effect of inflation is a second-order refinement fo
33、r economic evaluations the first-order refinement was the inclusion of the effect of taxes on basic cash flowFor eliminating weaknesses of the constant dollar approach the analysts can use after-tax actual cash flow comparisons In the literature there are three different comparisons for actual cash
34、flowsNo responsive charges in after-tax analysisMultiple inflation rates in an after-tax analysisAfter-tax modified cash flow comparison译文隐蔽性通货膨胀的影响及其应用摘要这个章节主要包扩隐蔽性通货膨胀分析方法通货膨胀是一个难以估计的财政参数隐蔽性通货膨胀理论告诉我们如何表达通货膨胀以及如何用数值表达隐蔽性通货膨胀在本章节中忽略了现金流量的影响表述了隐蔽性的概念以及列举一些数据结果显示在考虑了隐蔽性通货膨胀后的最坏可能结果和最好可能结果结果的差距一简介通货膨胀
35、概念指的是货币的增长没有与之对应的相同数量的产品或者效劳在通货膨胀下物价是当前物价在通货膨胀时期随着物价上升货币购置力会减少将来将花费更多的美元才得到和今天相同数量的产品或效劳通货紧缩是通货膨胀的对立面起到相反的效果当通货紧缩时期物价下降和货币购置力增加将来将花费更少的美元得到和今天相同的数量产品或效劳通常情况下政府面对通货膨胀情况多于通货紧缩的情况Blank and Tarquin 2002Sharp-Bette and Park 1990 Degarmo et al 1990 Gnen 1990 Young 1993毫无疑问多数人认为通货膨胀必伴随物价增加但很少有人知道通货膨胀一词的意思已
36、随着时间的流逝发生改变了最初通货膨胀一词用来描述价值被贬值的货币的特征这发生在经济和物价同比增长的时候所有物价以相同的比率上升时家庭的收入例如工资增长和家庭支出相同这表示家庭必须为相同的数量的商品支付更多的货币然而在物价上升相同比率时家庭支出和实际的价值效用均不受其影响随着经济的开展通货膨胀一词的意思有所改变现在通货膨胀经常被定义为当物价不同增长时可以描述多种物价上涨不只在所有物价相同比率增长的情况例如我们经常听说工资通货膨胀国内通货膨胀或进口通货膨胀这些并不意味着所有商品的价格都上涨更确切地说他们指的是某些特定产品或效劳物价的上涨计量通货膨胀的最多最常用的方法是消费者物价指数 - CPICP
37、I 是所谓的生活本钱指数或补偿指数 CPI 是用来测量消费者生活本钱随着时间的变化而变化如果消费者的收入和生活本钱增长相通他们的效用随着时间的流逝将是不变的CPI 经常被用来确定这样的目标即用于调整养老金或确定协议的补偿条款应该怎样的得到的补偿数为调整工程评估中通货膨胀的效果多数作者喜欢使用一个常规的指数例如消费者物价指数理由如下它是投资者的实际收入或我们试图提高的购置力这是使用CPI的一个好处货币的可变价值是通货膨胀的原因当通货膨胀时货币价值下降通货膨胀和通货紧缩更容易发生在如食物汽车等商品和效劳物价上升时时候在另一方面对商业和政府而言如果利率和工资薪酬的增加没有跟上一般物价的增长那么通货膨
38、胀就会削弱了储蓄和收入购置力通货膨胀的类型如下本钱推动通货膨胀生产者的本钱增加转嫁给消费者从而本钱增长不成比例的拉动物价增长需求拉动通货膨胀过度的消费能力限制了储蓄增长从而带动了物价的增长收索相关文献我们发现隐藏的通货膨胀导致失业Kahraman 和 Tolga1995 年计算了隐蔽通货膨胀的税后影响De 和 Goswami2006 年发表了一个关于测量隐蔽性通货膨胀率和延期付款后隐蔽程度的EOQ模型二通胀和利率之间的关系通货膨胀在一定程度上影响每个人通货膨胀程度决定了通货膨胀的影响程度在温和通货膨胀下经济缓慢增长日益增加的需求拉动物价在恶性通货膨胀下物价上涨高于工资上涨当处在恶性通货膨胀时恶
39、性通货膨胀是通货膨胀之中危险水平最高的不受控制的通货膨胀摧毁一个国家的经济水平 Park2006 当一个国家政治不稳定政府过度支出国际贸易失衡等等夏普-Betteand 公园 1990 年将出现恶性通货膨胀的问题当一国政府经济上出现通货膨胀时首先该国信用贷款水平受到限制其次工资水平受到限制货币供应量减少税收增加需求减少或税收减少需求增加说服管理当局增加投资或提高工资水平来刺激生产力从而带动商品供应在另一方面为了减少通货膨胀国家也可以通过控制银行和公司来控制现金的流入量和流出量比起通货膨胀的原因和改良方法大局部经济学家对通货膨胀的影响更感兴趣由于通货膨胀一美元呈现不同的价值在不同的时期一美元的价
40、值在昨天今天和明天各不相同经济学家必须预测美元的价值开展工作关心通货膨胀而且他们必须研究如果通货膨胀程度上升到更高水平比方恶性通货膨胀时将会发生什么21通货膨胀计量通货膨胀的计量是困难的那是因为不同商品和效劳的价格增加或减少的幅度不同它们在不同时期发生不同的改变在计算一般通货膨胀率时会受到不同区域的物价水平和不同区域的消费习惯的影响批发物价指数 WPI 这个指数以生成的所有商品和消费来计算通货膨胀生产者物价指数 PPI 这个指数从所有商品的生产者角度的计算物价的平均变化另一方面 生产者物价指数PPI也是用来计算用于生产产品和提供劳务所支付的价格变动的一个综合指标 Blank and Tarqu
41、in 2002消费者物价指数 CPI 每月会根据人口分布水平情况计算物价的平均数然后以这个物价平均数为根底根据家庭情况和家庭支出比例 计算CPI的数值 Park2006 CPI 是测量在为被最后的消费者使用的指定的产品和效劳被支付的物价方面的变化的一种合成物Blank and Tarquin 2002在 CPI 计算时将从七个不同方面计算固定市场下的物价水平食物和饮料住房衣服和保养运输医疗娱乐其他教育个人卫生等等CPI也表达了既定生活标准下的零售价格的变动影响22通货膨胀的影响分析员关心评估通货膨胀对经济的影响有二种根本模式被用来计算通货膨胀的影响不变币值模式通过将所有的现金流量以固定的物价水
42、平和固定的购置力转换为货币来消除通货膨胀的影响通常情况下更容易以不变的货币水平来预计未来的本钱因为这种预计建立在当前的价值水平上另一方面使用不变币值也存在两个弱点忽略了税收影响和没有提供物价和本钱构成 Biermann 和 Smidt 1990 这种模式表示为R未来币值模式在称为实际上为了估计现金流量在每笔交易时被兑换的将来价值金额的单位被表示如A这是一件简单事情在通货膨胀呈现一个固定比率时将在实际流通中的货币转换为实际货币为了比拟不同时期的货币水平不同的货币价值首先必须转换为随着时间的流逝但购置力不变的固定币值Sharp-Bette and Park 1990作为一个经济预测值当通货膨胀率上升时市场利率方面也相应增长通货膨胀存在差异并非一致商品的价格变动和效劳的价格变动总是不成比例通货膨胀影响是对于经济估计的再次改良首次经济估计改良在与税收的根底现金流量为了改良不变币值的缺点分析师可以比拟税后的实际现金流量因此有三种不同方法计算实际现金流量不考虑相应费用的税后分析复合通货膨胀率的税后分析税后现金流量比拟外文出处施普林格出版社柏林海德堡2021173 - 1821