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1、The New Networks and New Economic Opportunities,Peter F. CowheyDean, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific StudiesAnd California Institute for Telecom and Information TechnologyUniversity of California, San DiegoWashington, DC, January, 2003Pcowheyucsd.edu,2,Infrastructure Explosion
2、s Transform Economies after Complementary Innovations,Business model of network expansion is uncertainRailroad busts and boomsThey require complementary innovations to be sustainablethe Standard Oil and Armour Meatpacking Trusts exemplify firm transformation after infrastructure explosions.They requ
3、ire regulatory and policy decisions to regularizetime zones and Railroads,3,Strong Prospects for Wireless Networks as Catalysts for Growth and Enterprise Transformation,New Networking/IT tools permit new user innovations the key to higher productivity and transforming enterprise practicesThe fundame
4、ntal economic advantages of wireless and distributed ITcheap and ubiquitousThe real challenges are in:Development of terminalsComplementary technology inputsBusiness Strategy and Policy,4,Cheap! Revolutionizing The Cost of Connectivity Networks,* Experimental network solution,Source: Canadian Nation
5、al Broadband Taskforce and InfoAmericas,5,Goes Anywhere! Coopers Law Wireless History Suggests Vision of High Speed Ubiquitous Wireless Communications Infrastructure is Likely to Evolve,Number of conversationsGlobal market,The number of conversations (voice and data) conducted over a given area, in
6、all of the useful radio spectrum, has doubled every 2-1/2 years for the last 105 years, ever since Marconi discovered radio in 1895,6,What has Changed from the 1990s in US Networking?,7,Is The US Behind?,US lags on broadband Case of Korea:Higher rate of broadband deployment in KoreaLower price for b
7、roadband in Korea & urban demographyNew mass consumer applications (teenage gaming) US mass consumer & “commercial black holes” Unlike Korea, the youth market does not dominate wireless in USUS faces “15% of office buildings” bottleneck for broadbandDont want to subsidize networks, but worrisome ris
8、k is that user innovation is taking off in Asia.US needs to innovate around the bottlenecks by taking advantage of our leadership in R & D,8,Elements of the Revolution (I): Wireless Models,Wireless Access-Anywhere, Anytime (Michael Powell)3GFixed wireless networks on licensed and unlicensed bandsHyb
9、rid networks with different cost structures & business models are crucialcost matters!,9,SMS,Still pictures,Voice,Telecon-ference (VHS-quality),Movies (broadcast-quality),Cost of 3G: $.20-.30/MB,Cost of wireless LAN: $.03-.06/MB,Music (MP3-quality),Highly-compressed video clip,Projected consumer wil
10、lingness to pay$ per Mbyte,iMode data,* Based on compressed file transmission, estimated willingness to pay Source: GS Research; McKinsey analysis,Hybrid networks address consumer cost barriers,10,THE WLAN MARKET IS GROWING RAPIDLY A REGULATORY SUCCESS!,CAGR50%,Increased speed: 2.4 GHz products offe
11、r speeds of up to 11 Mbps; NII 5.8Ghz products at 54 MpsLower price: prices $1000 per node in 2000 going t0 $250 per node in 2005.Standards: 802.11 widely adopted standardGrowing usage: use of laptops as primary enterprise PCs and of PDAsInteroperability with wireline networks will exponentially inc
12、rease users,Wi-FI Network Interface Cards Shipped(ooo,ooos),Source:Gartner Dataquest,11,Vast Increase in Internet End Points Embedded Processors everywhereSensors and Actuators every body is a data streamA new “data commons”Emergence of a Distributed (Networked) Planetary Computer Storage of Data Ev
13、erywhereScalable Computing Power (the GRID) Information Appliances,Elements of the Revolution (II): New Computing Models and the Data Commons,12,The Human Body Will Becomean Internet Data Source,Patent Pending,Non-Invasive Platform - Smart Band-AidCan Also Link to Invasive Sensors,Source: PhiloMetro
14、n,13,Scalable Computer Grids: Entropia achieved 1 teraflop capacity in 19 months,14,Technology and Business Challenges,The “one-cent” radio cheap and practical wireless sensorsBreaking out of the “big office building” box“Fiber to the Cow” IT applications to agricultureFrom the back office to the wa
15、rehouseBusiness models for massive end point monitoring (the data commons)Time management businessesBiomedical Market tools and management of the commonsSecurity,15,Some Policy Challenges,Privacy issues challenge the viability of the data commonsTelecom Regulation Issues: “4G” vs. spectrum flexibili
16、ty and marketsHow do we interconnect licensed and unlicensed networks? Interconnect issues: Can you share a cable modem service over WiFI?Universal service funding issues once VoIP (voice over internet) protocols allow WiFI to substitute for traditional voice networksHow do we make sure that wireless networking globally is really efficiently priced? The problem of “roaming” charges,