《[互联网]宏观经济学4.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《[互联网]宏观经济学4.ppt（124页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN,Production and Growth,Saving, Investment, and the Financial System,Unemployment and Its Natural Rate,Production and Growth,A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.,Economic Growth around the World,Living standards, as measur
2、ed by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations.,Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.,To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, the production of goods and services must be focused on.,Productivity: Its Role and Det
3、erminants,Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.,Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced from each unit of inputs.,How productivity is determined?,The factors of production directly determine productivity. the inputs used
4、to produce goods and services,Physical capital Human capital Natural resources Technological knowledge,Physical Capital,is a produced factor of production.,is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services.,Tools used to build or repair automobiles, build furniture
5、, Office buildings, schools, etc.,It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process., is the economists term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience.,Human Capital,Human resources Human investme
6、nt,Natural Resources,inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits.,can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services.,renewable resources nonrenewable resources,societys understanding of
7、the best ways to produce goods and services. Application of technological knowledge plays the key role in jumping out of Neo-Malthusian Model of population trap .,Technological Knowledge,Economic Growth and Public Policy,Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.,Enco
8、urage saving and investment. Encourage investment from abroad. Encourage education and training. Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability. Promote free trade. Promote research and development.,Government Policies which raise productivity and living standards.,The Importance
9、of Saving and Investment,One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.,Harrod-Domar model （1） g = s/V （2） Y/Y = s （Y/K） Karl Marx g = s Vicious Cycle of Poverty Paradox of Thrifty,The relationship between S and g,(,a,),G,r,o,w,t,h,R,a,t,e,1,9,
10、6,0,1991,(,b,),I,n,v,e,s,t,m,e,n,t,1,9,6,0,1991,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bang
11、ladesh,Chile,Rwanda,Investment (percent of GDP),Growth Rate (percent),0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,0,10,20,30,40,The relationship between I and g,Rostovian take-off model (the theory of stage of economic growth) RosensteinRodan :The theory of the big-push Diminishing Returns As the stock of capital rises, the ex
12、tra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls.,High growth rate High level of growth,In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.,Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate lead
13、s to higher growth only for a while.,The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich.,the most improved one the best one,Late-development Advantage,Investment from Abroad,Governments can increase capital ac
14、cumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.,Foreign aid Foreign investment Foreign debt,Theoretical Source,Two-gap Model,IS = MX,Investment from abroad takes several forms: Foreign Portfolio Investment Investments financed with foreign money but operated
15、by domestic residents. Foreign Direct Investment Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. Transnational Corporations/BOT,Education,For a countrys long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. Analysis of education based upon Cost Benefit,An
16、educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter societys pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.,Problems facing some poor countries include Education deepening/knowledge unemployment Brain drain (external) which
17、means the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries. Internal Brain drain 身在曹营心在汉,Property Rights and Political Stability,Property rights refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own. An economy-wide respect for property rights is an
18、 important prerequisite for the price system to work. It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.,Inward -oriented trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. primary inward-looking secondary inward-looking (import substitution) Outward -oriented trade pol
19、icies, encouraging interaction with other countries. primary outward-looking secondary outward-looking (export promotion),Free Trade,Research and Development,R&D is the first stage of technological progress. The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living. Most technolog
20、ical advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors. Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.,Technological Progress,R&D,Technical Innovation,Technical Diffusion,Acquisition,Transfer,Appropriate te
21、chnology,Intermediate technology,Population Growth,Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth affects a society.,Population growth interacts with other factors of production: Stretching natural resources Malthusian Population Theory Diluting the capital stock Neo
22、-classical economic growth model Promoting technological progress,The Financial System,consists of the group of institutions in the economy that help to match one persons saving with another persons investment, that is , coordinate the actions of savers and borrowers. It moves the economys scarce re
23、sources from savers to borrowers.,Financial Institutions in the Economy,Financial institutions can be grouped into two different categories: financial markets and financial intermediaries.,Financial Markets are the institutions through which savers can directly provide funds to borrowers. Bond Marke
24、t Stock Market Financial Intermediaries are financial institutions through which savers can indirectly provide funds to borrowers. Banks Mutual Funds,Bond Market Bond is a certificate of indebtedness that specifies obligations of the borrower to the holder of the bond. Characteristics of a Bond Term
25、: The length of time until the bond matures. Credit Risk: The probability that the borrower will fail to pay some of the interest or principal. Tax Treatment: The way in which the tax laws treat the interest on the bond.,Financial Markets,Stock Market Stock represents a claim to partial ownership in
26、 a firm and is therefore, a claim to the profits that the firm makes. The sale of stock to raise money is called equity financing. Compared to bonds, stocks offer both higher risk and potentially higher returns.,Banks take deposits from people who want to save and use the deposits to make loans to p
27、eople who want to borrow. pay depositors interest on their deposits and charge borrowers slightly higher interest on their loans.,Financial Intermediaries,Banks help create a medium of exchange by allowing people to write checks against their deposits. A medium of exchanges is an item that people ca
28、n easily use to engage in transactions. This facilitates the purchases of goods and services.,Mutual Funds is an institution that sells shares to the public and uses the proceeds to buy a portfolio, of various types of stocks, bonds, or both. They allow people with small amounts of money to easily d
29、iversify.,Other Financial Institutions Credit unions Pension funds Insurance companies Loan sharks,Saving and Investment in the National Income Accounts,Recall that GDP is both total income in an economy and total expenditure on the economys output of goods and services: Y = C + I + G + NX,Some Impo
30、rtant Identities,Assume a closed economy one that does not engage in international trade: Y = C + I + G,Now, subtract C and G from both sides of the equation: Y C G =I The left side of the equation is the total income in the economy after paying for consumption and government purchases and is called
31、 national saving, or just saving (S).,Substituting S for Y - C - G, the equation can be written as: S = I,National saving, or saving, is equal to: S = I S = Y C G S = (Y Tn C) + (Tn G),The Meaning of Saving and Investment,National Saving is the total income in the economy that remains after paying f
32、or consumption and government purchases. Private Saving= (Y Tn C) is the amount of income that households have left after paying their taxes and paying for their consumption. Public Saving= (Tn G) .is the amount of tax revenue that the government has left after paying for its spending.,If T G, the g
33、overnment runs a budget surplus because it receives more money than it spends. The surplus of T - G represents public saving. If G T, the government runs a budget deficit because it spends more money than it receives in tax revenue.,Surplus and Deficit,For the economy as a whole, saving must be equa
34、l to investment. S = I,The Market for Loanable Funds,Financial markets coordinate the economys saving and investment in the market for loanable funds.,is the market in which those who want to save supply funds and those who want to borrow to invest demand funds.,Loanable funds refers to all income t
35、hat people have chosen to save and lend out, rather than use for their own consumption.,Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds,The supply of loanable funds comes from people who have extra income they want to save and lend out. The demand for loanable funds comes from households and firms that wish to
36、 borrow to make investments.,The interest rate is the price of the loan. It represents the amount that borrowers pay for loans and the amount that lenders receive on their saving. The interest rate in the market for loanable funds is the real interest rate.,Financial markets work much like other mar
37、kets in the economy. The equilibrium of the supply and demand for loanable funds determines the real interest rate.,Loanable Funds,(in billions of dollars),0,Interest,Rate,The Market for Loanable Funds,Government policies that affect saving and investment Taxes and saving Taxes and investment Govern
38、ment budget deficits,Policy 1: Saving Incentives,Taxes on interest income substantially reduce the future payoff from current saving and, as a result, reduce the incentive to save.,A tax decrease increases the incentive for households to save at any given interest rate. The supply of loanable funds
39、curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium interest rate decreases. The quantity demanded for loanable funds increases,Loanable Funds,(in billions of dollars),0,Interest,Rate,An Increase in the Supply for Loanable Funds,If a change in tax law encourages greater saving, the result will be lower inter
40、est rates and greater investment.,Policy 2: Investment Incentives,An investment tax credit increases the incentive to borrow. Increases the demand for loanable funds. Shifts the demand curve to the right. Results in a higher interest rate and a greater quantity saved.,If a change in tax laws encoura
41、ges greater investment, the result will be higher interest rates and greater saving.,Loanable Funds,(in billions of dollars),0,Interest,Rate,An Increase in the Demand for Loanable Funds,Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses,When the government spends more than it receives in tax revenue
42、s, the short fall is called the budget deficit. The accumulation of past budget deficits is called the government debt.,Government borrowing to finance its budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds available to finance investment by households and firms. This fall in investment is referred
43、 to as crowding out. The deficit borrowing crowds out private borrowers who are trying to finance investments.,A budget deficit decreases the supply of loanable funds. Shifts the supply curve to the left. Increases the equilibrium interest rate. Reduces the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds,Loa
44、nable Funds,(in billions of dollars),0,Interest,Rate,The Effect of a Government Budget Deficit,When government reduces national saving by running a deficit, the interest rate rises and investment falls.,A budget surplus increases the supply of loanable funds, reduces the interest rate, and stimulate
45、s investment.,Identifying Unemployment,Categories of Unemployment The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories. the long-run problem and the short-run problem natural unemployment cyclical unemployment, is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run. It i
46、s the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.,Natural Unemployment, refers to the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate. It is associated with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.,Cyclical Unemployment,Three Basic Questions: How does gover
47、nment measure the economys rate of unemployment? What problems arise in interpreting the unemployment data? How long are the unemployed typically without work?,Describing Unemployment,How is unemployment measured?,Based on the answers to the survey questions, each adult is placed into one of three c
48、ategories: Employed Unemployed Not in the labor force,A person is considered as an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.,A person is employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.,A person is unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, is looking for a job, o
49、r is waiting for the start date of a new job.,A person who fits neither of these categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labor force.,The labor force is the total number of workers, including both the employed and the unemployed.,The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unem