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1、By Dai Lian Page1 PMP考前培训 10/18/2002 By Dai Lian Page2 什么是项目？PMBOK 1.2 具体目标：明确定义、现实可行的目标(clearly defined realistic objectives)。 临时性或一次性（Temporary）：明确的开始与结束。 独特性（Unique）：创造独特的产品、服务或结果。 相关的活动并消耗资源(Interrelated activities and consume resources)。 问题： 项目的4个特征中最重要的2个是什么？ 项目与日常运营的共性与区别？ By Dai Lian Page3 项
2、目 有始有终(Temporary) 开始和结束 独特的(Unique) 产品或服务 由人来实施 受制于有限的资源 需要计划、实施和控制 运营 重复的(repetive) 进行的(ongoing) 项目与运营（Operation）的关系 By Dai Lian Page4 渐进细化（Progressive Elaboration） PMBOK 1.2.3 是临时性与 独特性的综合。 渐进：按步骤进行，稳步增加 细化：仔细地将内容的细节全面展开。 问题：以下哪一个不能被渐进细化？ A：范围 B：风险 C：项目产品 D：项目服务 By Dai Lian Page5 质量(Quality, Objec
3、tive, requirements ) 成本 (Cost, Budget) 时间 (Time, Schedule) 牵一发而 动全身 范围 风险 项目的三个约束条件 By Dai Lian Page6 项目管理的定义 q 什么是项目管理 通过使用知识、技能、工 具和方法来组织、计划、 实施并监控项目活动，使 之满足项目需要。 源：PMBOK2000 项目管理的特点 v过程、管理系统、方法 的集合； v有效的计划和控制； v是对项目、项目群、项 目组合的管理； v项目管理既是管理科学 ，也是管理艺术。 By Dai Lian Page7 子项目（Subproject） PMBOK 1.5 项目
4、中某一部分，在一定水平上是独立运作的时候，就称之 为“子项目”。 可内：Project team. 可外：Subcontractor. 以一个单独阶段或项目过程为基础。 例如： 根据过程分：实施 人员技能分：工种 技术内容分：程序自动测试。 By Dai Lian Page8 大型项目/项目群（program） PMBOK 1.5 一组相关项目。 有Ongoing operations运维 例如： 飞机生产 出版报刊杂志 单一项目就是项目群的子项目。 在很多情况下可以互用。 By Dai Lian Page9 项目组合管理（Portfolio Management） 公司战略与可用资源有机结合
5、的一种投资管理战略。 (Investment Management Strategy coordinating organizations strategic and available resources) 选择和支持某些产品生产线项目或大型项目，通过这些项目把 公司战略与资源联系在一起。 (Selection and support of specific product line projects and programs that link the organizations strategic plan, investments) By Dai Lian Page10 项目管理办公室
6、（PMO） 负责协调许多项目及不同产品交织一起的大型项目。 可作为组织的一个部门。 设立标准并主要负责以下事物： 采购、风险、WBS Dictionary 绩效评估 资源管理 题外话： CAPM PMPAuto CAQSoftware DevelopmentPMP+3500Hr+75Questions PMO By Dai Lian Page11 项目生命周期 概念（Concept） 开发（Development） 实施（Implementation） 结束（Termination） 问题： 冲突在项目生命周期中最多的阶段是？ 冲突在项目生命周期中次多的阶段是？ 必须是4个阶段吗？ By Da
7、i Lian Page12 时间 人员 风险 a basis for tradeoffs. Projects product product description(5.1.1.1) Project deliverables a list of summary level Sub-products. Project objectives quantifiable criteria to measure success at least: Cost Schedule Quality SMART Objectiv e By Dai Lian Page32 Involves subdividing
8、the major project deliverables or sub-deliverables smaller more manageable units Until sufficient detailed defined deliverables to Support developing Activity. 分解 Decomposition PMBOK 5.2.2.2 Step 1: 识别主要可交付 成果 Identify major deliverables Step 2: Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be d
9、eveloped Step 3: Identify constituent components (组成元素) Step 4: Verify the correctness By Dai Lian Page33 工作分解结构 WBS PMBOK 5.3.3.1 面向可交付成果而对项目元素的分组，它组织并定义了整个项 目范围。 Deliverable-oriented, Not activity oriented. Work not in WBS is outside scope of project. Unique identifier Code of account Work package
10、 Lowest level item of WBS Can be decomposed in a Subproject WBS. some books: 80 hours. WBS dictionary: work component descriptions. typically include: work package, schedule dates, Cost budget, staff assignment By Dai Lian Page34 工作分解结构与其他结构的区别 PMBOK 5.3.3.1 CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解结构 定义卖方提供给买方报
11、告的层次，不如WBS详细。 OBS(Organization breakdown structure)：组织分解结构 显示工作被分配到组织单元。 RBS (Resource breakdown structure)：资源分解结构 OBS的一种变异，将工作元素分配到个人。 BOM (Bill of Material)：材料清单 制造产品所需零部件等的分级层次。 PBS (Project breakdown Structure) ：项目分解结构 即WBS，用于某些将BOM称为WBS的领域。 By Dai Lian Page35 范围核实 Scope Verification PMBOK 5.4 是
12、项目干系人正式接受（Formal Acceptance）项目的过程。 需要审查Deliverables和Work results，以确保正确圆满完成。 项目提前终止，则应对项目完成程度建立文档。 注意区别：范围核实与质量控制。 范围核实：关心工作结果的“接受Acceptance” 质量控制：关心工作结果的“正确性Correctness” Inspection= Review, product reviews, audits, walkthrough By Dai Lian Page36 变更申请 Change Request PMBOK 5.5.1.3 多种形式：oral/written, d
13、irect/indirect, externally/internally initiated, legal/optional 但是，必须是正式的（Formal） 引起变更申请的原因： 1.外部事件 2.定义Product scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission） 3.定义Project scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission） 4.Value-adding change (尤其在Optional时) 5.Riskcontingency plan or workaround plan.(11.6.3.3) By Dai Lian Page37 Activit
14、y Definition 活动定义 PMBOK 6.1 分解(Decomposition 6.1.2.1)：将工作包细分为：更小、更易于管理 的活动（Activity）。 与范围定义中分解的区别: Output 不同：deliverable / activity. 活动清单（6.1.3.1） 项目执行的所有活动。 WBS的延伸。 每个活动要有描述。 WBS更新（6.1.3.3）。 又叫精细化 Refinement. By Dai Lian Page38 Dependencies 依赖关系 PMBOK 6.2 q Mandatory 强制 qOften involve physical or t
15、echnological limitations (based on the nature of work being done) q也叫硬逻辑，硬依赖关系。 q Discretionary 任意 q Best practice q 软逻辑 Soft Logic: desirable and customary (based on experience) q 优先 Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor) q External q Project activity
16、with nonproject activity. By Dai Lian Page39 前导图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.1 Precedence Diagramming Method AON (Activity on Node): Node=activity, Arrow=dependencies One time estimate Lead and Lag Four relationships: Finish to StartFinish to Finish Start to StartStart to Finish TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2
17、 TASK1 TASK2 ESEF LSLF ESEF LSLF By Dai Lian Page40 箭线图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.2 Arrow Diagramming Method AOA (Activity on Arrow)： 双代号网络图，活动在箭线上。 有虚拟活动Dummy Activity: 一般用虚线表示, 0 duration. No Lag One relationship: Finish to start S 1 23 4 E A B C D E F G By Dai Lian Page41 计划评审技术 PERT PMBOK 6.4.2.1 Three time
18、estimate 悲观值 Pessimistic 最可能值 Most Likely 乐观值 Optimistic Weighted Average=(Optimistic + 4*Most likely + Pessimistic)/6 Standard deviation(标准差)=(Pessimistic - Optimistic)/6 Beta Distribution Most Likely PERT Weighted Average By Dai Lian Page42 关键路径法 CPM PMBOK 6.4.2.1 One time estimate Most likely Cal
19、culate forward pass using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise form of expert judgment q 参数模型 Parametric Modeling uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs (e.g.building houses)
20、Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve q 从下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating rolling up individual activities into project total smaller work activities have more accuracy q 计算机工具 Computerized tools s
21、preadsheets, software By Dai Lian Page53 估算的准确性 (Accuracy of Estimates） q 量级估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate: -25% to 75%; Without detailed data, Best guess, usually made during Initiation Phase Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary q 预算估算 Budget Estimate: -10% to 25%; More better data, u
22、sually made during the Planning phase Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design q 确定估算 Definitive Estimate: -5% to 10%; Well defined data, usually bottom up. Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes. By Dai Lian Page54 估算的准确性 q Cost Estimates: 量级估算Order of Magnitude (ballpar
23、k estimate)：During initial evaluation 预算估算 Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval. 确定估算 Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract change etc. Order of Magnitude Definitive Estimate Budget Estimate 75% -25% 25% -10% 10% -5% By Dai Lian Page55 生命周期成本（Life cycle costing） q 开发成本 Develo
24、pment cost q 生产成本 Production cost q 运维成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost q 处置成本 Discard cost Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (e.g. 电池，化 学品 etc.) By Dai Lian Page56 Time Value of Money q PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest)n q NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and
25、 outflow NPV0, go NPV=0, consider NPVAC，节约； EVBV，超前； EVBV，滞后。 ETC指从今以后一段时间; EAC指工作结束那个点。 By Dai Lian Page69 Quality 质量 Quality: 实体中与它满足明确需要和隐含需要的能力相关的所有特性的 总和。Totality of characteristics of an entity that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs. Five misunderstandings about quality: 1
26、.Quality means goodness or luxury. 2.Quality is intangible and not measurable. 3.Quality is Expensive. 4.Quality problem is originated by workers. 5.Quality originate in quality department. 区别质量与等级：如酒店星级 区别质量与镀金（Gold plating） By Dai Lian Page70 质量目标 Quality Goals 质量的目标是： 适合于使用Fitness for use. (产品或服务
27、能否使用？Is the product or service capable of being used?) 适合于目的Fitness for purpose. (产品或服务达到了设计目标 ？Does the product or service meet its intended purpose?) 顾客满意 Customer satisfaction. (产品或服务满足了顾客的期 望？Does the product or service meet the customers expectations?) 符合需求 Conformance to the requirements. (产品或
28、服务是 否符合要求？Does the product or service conform to the requirements?) By Dai Lian Page71 质量责任 Responsibility for Quality q 高层管理 Top management 负责组织的质量。Responsible for Quality of the Organization q 项目经理Project manager 负责项目的质量。 Responsible for Quality of the project q Individual employee 负责其所做工作的质量。Resp
29、onsible for the tasks they performed By Dai Lian Page72 Quality Planning 质量计划 PMBOK8.1.1 q确定与项目有关的质量标准并确定达到标准的方法。 q质量政策（Quality policy） q有组织的最高层正式发布的关于质量的总宗旨和总方向。 q如果组织没有正式质量政策，项目团队应该为项目指定质量政 策。 q项目团队有责任确保干系人全面获知质量政策。 q范围说明（Scope statement） q产品描述（Product description） q标准和规范（Standard and regulation）
30、By Dai Lian Page73 实验设计 Design of Experiments PMBOK8.1.2.4 q 一种统计方法，帮助识别哪些因素将影响某种变量。 q 多用于项目产品上。如：汽车设计中确定哪种悬置与 车轮的搭配效果最好，并且价位合理。 q 项目中的用途成本与进度tradeoff： 高级工程师的费用高但用时少，低级工程师则相反。 将高级和低级工程师进行多种组合，已确定最佳。 By Dai Lian Page74 Quality Cost 质量成本 PMBOK8.1.2.5 q 质量成本指为了达到产品/服务质量而进行的全部工作所发生的所有成本。 包括符合要求的成本和不符合要求
31、的成本。(Cost of Conformance/ non- conformance) q 典型项目一般设定项目价值的 3-5%作为质量管理的成本。 质量成本类型 Quality Cost Category: q 预防成本Prevention Cost - cost to plan and execute a project so that it will be error-free q 鉴定成本Appraisal Cost - cost of evaluating the processes and the outputs of the processes to ensure the pro
32、duct is error-free q 内部失败（故障）成本 Internal Failure Cost - cost incurred to correct an identified defect before the customer receives the product q 外部失败（故障）成本 External Failure Cost - cost incurred due to errors detected by the customer. This includes warranty cost, field service personnel training cost
33、, complaint handling, and future business losses. q 测量与检测设备成本Measurement and Test Equipment - capital cost of equipment used to perform prevention and appraisal activities. By Dai Lian Page75 QA and QC Comparison q 质量保证(QA): 在质量体系中实施的全部有计划、有系统的活动 ，以提供满足项目相关标准的信心。 q 质量控制(QC): 一个过程，用来监控具体项目结果，以决定他们 是否
34、符合相关的质量标准，并识别消除不满意绩效的成因。 QA Managerial process Organize Designs programs/processes Sets objectives Provide resources Develops procedures QC Technical aspect of Quality Examines Analyzes Monitors conformance Provides reporting By Dai Lian Page76 质量控制中要区分以下概念 PMBOK8.3 预防(prevention)与检查(inspection) 特性抽
35、样(attribute sampling)与变量抽样(variable sampling) 特殊原因(special cause)与随机原因(random cause) 许可的误差(Tolerance/Threshold)与控制限度(control limits) By Dai Lian Page77 质量工具 Quality Tools 流程图 曲线图 帕累托图（Pareto Diagram）-80/20定理 因果图（鱼骨图/Ishikawa图） 图表（Graphs） 控制图（Control Charts） 核对表（Checksheets） By Dai Lian Page78 Sampli
36、ng q 确定样本大小 q Before reject product, benchmark the number of defect(this is the management responsibility). q Methods Acceptance Attribute Special Attribute Continuous sampling Chain Skip-lot Variable sampling By Dai Lian Page79 不断改进（Continues Improvement Process） PDCA (戴明 Deming): 计划Plan 提高当前的实践 im
37、prove the present practice 执行 Do 计划的实施implement the plan 检查 Check 通过测试来观察是否得到了期望的结果。test to see if desired results are achieved 行动 Act 实施纠正行动。Implement corrective Action 戴明还阐述说：85%的质量问题应由管理层负责，另外15%由团队成员 负责。 Deming also stated that 85% of poor quality is attributable to the management, 15% to the te
38、am members. By Dai Lian Page80 Taguchis theory qQuality should be designed into the product, not inspected into it. qQuality is best achieved by minimizing the deviation from a target. The product should be designed to be immune to uncontrollable environmental factors. qThe cost of quality should be
39、 measured as a function of deviation from the standard and the losses should be measured system-wide. By Dai Lian Page81 AAR接受 ARA测试 ACR设计 ACR需求 EDCBA R负责A协助C审查 责任分配矩阵可在各个等级实行 责任分配矩阵 By Dai Lian Page82 PM Roles and Responsibilities q Integrator 集成者 是看到项目目标及项目如何融入组织整体计划的人。PM is the most likely person
40、 who can view both the project and the way it fits into the overall plan for the organization. 协调项目团队的努力。Must coordinate the efforts of all the units of the project team. q Communicator : 水平，垂直，内外，正式非正式等 q Team Leader q Decision Maker q Climate Creator or Builder The PM should attempt to build a sup
41、portive atmosphere so that project team members work together and not against one another. Seek to avoid unrest and negative forms of conflict by building supportive atmosphere early. By Dai Lian Page83 权力的类型 q 法定 （Legitimate or Formal): q基于一个人在公司中的正式地位。Based on a persons formal position in the comp
42、any. q奖赏 Reward: q提供好结果的能力。如：提升、涨工资等 Power to give positive consequences or outcomes. q强制 Coercive (Penalty): q提供坏结果的能力。如：停职、解聘等。Refers to negative consequences that a person can inflict on others. q威望 Referent : q通过团队成员将某人视为模范，崇拜并心甘情愿追随而获得的能力。Power gained when team members admire, and willingly fol
43、low, an individual as a role model q专家权威 Expert : q通过在某方面公认的知识或技能水平而获得的能力。 Refers to earned power through a recognized level of knowledge or skill in a specific area. Also called charisma. By Dai Lian Page84 领导风格/决策模型 Leadership Styles / Decision Model q Autocratic（独裁型）: 项目经理很少或根本不从团队那里收集信息。The PM s
44、olicits little or no information from team. 独断专行。Makes decision solely. 又被称为：指导型。Also referred to as Directing. qConsultive autocratic（咨询独裁型）: 从团队那里收集大量信息。Intensive information input is solicited from the team. 但自己作决定。The PM still makes the decisions solely. 又被称为：说服型。May also be referred to as Persu
45、ading. By Dai Lian Page85 领导风格/决策模型 Leadership Styles / Decision Model q Democratic (民主型) q 将问题交给团队讨论并收集信息。Problem presented to the team for open discussion and information gathering. q团队做决策。Team makes decision. q 又被称为：参与型。 Also referred to as Participating / Consensus Manager. qLaissey Faire (自由放任型
46、) q 集体内上下之间很少或没有信息交换 。Little or no information exchange takes place within the group(Up and down). q 团队有最终决策权。The team has the ultimate authority for the final decision. q又被称为：授权型。 Also referred to as Delegating / Shareholder Manager. q注：这种类型被认为是拙劣的管理。This style is considered to be poor management.
47、By Dai Lian Page86 Maslow的需求层次理论 q 人与人之间存在需求差异。 生理 安全 爱和归属 自尊 自我实现 By Dai Lian Page87 动机理论 Motivation Theories q Theory X: (developed by McGregor to describe how managers relate to subordinates) qMost people dislike their work and will avoid it. qMost people lack ambition and have little capacity fo
48、r problem solving and creativity. qWorkers prefer direction and avoid taking responsibility and initiative. qWorkers motivated only by Maslows lower level needs (physiological and safety). qWorkers are self-centered, indifferent to the needs of the organization, and resistant to change. qTheory Y: (
49、also developed by McGregor) qMost people meet high performance expectations if appropriately motivated and the climate supportive. qMost people are creative, imaginative, ambitious, and committed to meeting the organizations goals. qMost people are self-disciplined, can direct and control themselves, desire responsibilities, and accept them willingly. qWorkers are motivated by Maslows higher level needs (self esteem and self actualization) B