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1、GLGi: Solid-State Disk Technologies, Applications & Market Opportunities, Forecast & Risk,Robert Witkow President Westwood Marketing, LLC, 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved,Council Member Biography Robert Witkow is the President at Westwood Marketing LLC, a company providing of bus
2、iness development and market intelligence services to the flash memory industry. He is an expert on flash memory applications for mobile telephones, digital cameras, and other consumer electronic devices. Previously, he served in senior sales and marketing management positions at SMART Modular Techn
3、ologies, the leading independent memory module manufacturer in the world, at Lexar Media, where he managed OEM and Technology Sales and Marketing, and at M-Systems, where as Director of Sales and Marketing he brought the USB Flash Drive to the North American market., 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc.,
4、All Rights Reserved,Topics Applications & value proposition Key components & supplier overview Market forecasts & revenue metrics Disruptive & alternative technologies (Violin Memory, Pliant, Texas Memory, Solid Data System), 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved,About GLG Institute GL
5、G Institute (GLGiSM) is a professional organization focused on educating business and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It is designed to revolutionize the professional education market by putting the power of programming into the hands of the GLG community. GLGi hosts hundreds of
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7、 subject areas and from trusted Council Members Share Seminar details with colleagues or friends, 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved,Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts John Aronsohn Vice President and TMT Global Research Head, Gerson Lehrman Group 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor New York, NY
8、 10022 212-984-3673 Aaron Liberman Managing Director, Sales and Marketing Gerson Lehrman Group 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor New York, NY 10022 212-984-3684 Carly Pisarri Process Manager Gerson Lehrman Group 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor New York, NY 10022 212-750-1435 , 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc.
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17、tive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use of the information provided at this event.,Contents,SSD Technology SSD & Key Components Overview SSD - HDD Characteristics Technical Comparison
18、SSC vs. HDD Issues SSD Applications Enterprise Storage Industry Leaders Portable Computing Industry Leaders Military / Aerospace Forecast Data Points NAND Demand Forecast SSD Demand Forecast by Application Obstacles to Adoption Alternative / Disruptive Technologies Questions & Answers About the Pres
19、enter,SSD Technology,A Solid-State Disk (SSD) is a data storage device that emulates a hard disk drive (HDD) NAND Flash SSDs are essentially arrays of flash memory devices which include a controller that electrically and mechanically emulate, and are software compatible with magnetic HDDs,SSD & Key
20、Components Overview,NAND Flash Controller Captive IP Development Silicon Motion (NASDAQ: SIMO) Hyperstone (sub. of CML Microsystems, LSE: CML.L) Phison (TSE: Phison Company 8299) IP Goal Microelectronics (Private Company Chengdu, China),SSD - HDD Technical Comparison,SSD vs. HDD Issues,Q. SSD access
21、 times are great, but write speeds are a step back, so why would I want an SSD? Small reads (4k) are 20X faster than similar reads on an HDD. SSD write performance still leaves much to be desired? This is where SSD manufacturers differentiate their product. I heard that NAND performance is degrading
22、 as a result of die shrinks and increases in bits per cell. Wont this slow SSD performance gains? A. Correct. Write performance problems are not going away.,SSD Applications,Enterprise Storage: Now Portable Computing: 2010 or 11 Military / Aerospace: Legacy Consumer Electronic Media Players are Not
23、Likely Candidates for SSD,Enterprise Storage,Drivers Read Performance Increase Network Capacity Power Savings SSD Manufacturers STEC, Mtron, SMART Modular Buyers / Market Drivers 1st tier: EMC, HP Storageworks, IBM, HDS 2nd tier: Dell, NetApp, SGI, Quantum, Sun,SSD - Enterprise Leaders,Mtron Private
24、ly Held, 2006, Gyeonggi-Do, S. Korea Claims fastest enterprise class SSD Very close ties to Seoul National University and Samsung Distribution deal with Imation who is better known for optical Controller IP from Indilinx, founded by other SNU graduates SMART Modular NASDAQ: SMOD, 1985, Fremont, CA 6
25、1% of 2007s $828.4 million revenue was generated by HP & Cisco SMART recently purchased Adtron Close ties to Francisco Partners, Silverlake, & Samsung STEC NASDAQ: STEC, 1985, Santa Ana, CA Zeus IOPS is the highest performing enterprise class SSD STECs differentiator is its in-house controller techn
26、ology Margins could be pressured as competitors improve product performance 23% of 2007s $188.7 million revenue came from SMART Modular,SSD - Enterprise Leaders,$100 non-NAND BOM in Enterprise SSDs. $5.00 non-NAND BOM in Notebook SSDs $1.00 non-NAND BOM in eeePC and OLPC,Portable Computing,Drivers P
27、ower Savings Quicker Boot Weight Reliability,Apple MacBook Air $1,799 w/ 80 GB HDD $3,199 w/ 64 GB SSD Lenovo X300 $2,632 w/ 64 GB SSD,Dell Latitude D430 $1,726 w/ 80 GB HDD $2,506 w/ 64 GB SSD Asus EeePC $349 w/ 4 GB SSD,SSD Portable Computing Leaders,Samsung Gyeonggi-Do, S. Korea 42.1% NAND Market
28、 Share In-house SSD controller development, supplemented with Silicon Motion controllers Lowest cost model due to highest yields, not from the most advanced technology Investing heavily in PCRAM which shows promise in NVM and SSD applications,SanDisk NASDAQ: SNDK 1988, Milpitas, CA 2007 Sales of $3.
29、9 billion $17 Billion Toshiba JV Fab CapEx through 2011 2/3 of 2007 Royalties generated by Samsung. Royalty renegotiation is on-going All current SSDs are built with Samsung SLC Forecast of Q1 08 MLC SSD has been pushed out to Q4 08,Toshiba Tokyo, Japan 27.9% NAND Market Share Partners with SanDisk
30、on Fab development $16.7 Billion SanDisk JV for Fabs 4 and 5, which will quadruple production capacity To date, Toshiba has sold SanDisk designed NAND. Now starting to develop their own NAND designs,Watch List: Hynix and Seagate,Military / Aerospace,Drivers Reliability Annual Units 20K Not Exciting
31、Characterized by High Margins,Forecast Data Points,HDD Revenue: 3.5% CAGR 2006 - 2011 SSD Revenue 2007 - 2012 CAGR: 71%. (from $373 million to $5.4 billion) SSD Average Capacity: 40 - 45% CAGR from 2006 2011 (from 32 GB to 200 GB) NAND cost erosion will continue unabated: 2006 - 79.4% (Benchmark 8 G
32、b MLC) 2007 - 57.1% 2008 YTD - 30% SSD and HDD pricing will near parity in Q1 2011 Expect SSDs to soak up 20% of NAND capacity by Q1 2010,NAND Demand / Forecast,SSD Demand / Forecast,Obstacles to Adoption,Enterprise CIOs want proof that flash memory will not wear out Entry point of 10X the cost of m
33、agnetic or optical storage is significant Magnetic Storage Erosion ($1.00/ GB in 2005 to $.25 in 2011) Portable Computing Price, Price, Price SanDisk stated in 6/07 that significant adoption would be seen when flash eroded to 5X magnetic Seagate is projecting no significant adoption until NAND erode
34、s to 2X magnetic I recently golfed with #2 IT executive at KPMG. He has a PC/ seat budget, and is not willing to pay any premium until hard $ savings are proven Alternative & Disruptive Technologies,Alternative / Disruptive Technologies,Solid State Memory Appliance Violin Memory Pliant Technology Te
35、xas Memory Systems Solid Data Systems Traditional Magnetic Hybrid HDD Technical Breakthroughs / Cost Erosion,Solid-State Memory Appliance,Established Players: Texas Memory Systems 1978, Privately Held HQ in Houston, TX Solid Data Systems 1993, Privately Held HQ in Santa Clara, CA Emerging Competitor
36、s: Pliant Technology 2006, Privately Held, Founders are Storage Industry Legends, Lightspeed Ventures A-Round in February 2008, HQ in Milpitas, CA Violin Memory 2005, Privately Held, RationalWave Partners is an Investor, HQ in Iselin, NJ,Questions & Answers,Which approach is going to win the Enterprise? SSD Memory Appliance Traditional Magnetic Which companies are most at risk and why? STEC SanDisk Seagate Who has the most to gain? Seagate Samsung Toshiba Your questions?,