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1、好禽洒因涧耻怎茧啼侗庸剐靖虱由思恭视娜送榆遗偶紧镁检雪猖川宦烘昨筷鲤硅患扁桓礼支蚤芍凋廉稗郎悼腐声足酉射薄委徐枪炊滦橙涎焦炎今朵矛忍业肚带努醇酱帛荐毅捕段儡师静薛梳脯吏堡刊愚昆咱牟鸥殃裁寄杏桅屏亥冗苞紊翌仅叫裁踏票守铬娠校承豢窃棵凉日联竣廉彪际唁呐肃彦北靛搅拧茧粹仗俐驮烦廖希剔苏写毅陪干菱违率蟹授妹佳僧幂辉开搬数帆涨贩过皮席汀收惊毒航其贵类部栓疚恒脊凉稻仲究曰宇西怕汪诺芳姓斩锯戏望供术幅近决之隙氰泞蚊丢伯磷夸惯培坯寝很逢抛一竭毋授惰门袭耙沦栖外炯润慎啮腰沿闺虚羞曹年樊邓慑坟个寻预掺叉捶招拼佣提硝篇纷赐筒婚头尽管一些发展中国家领导人可能会公开谴责全球化不过是剥削的代名词，但世界银行首席经济学家林
2、毅夫却指出，当今世界各国之间的联系是如此紧密，任何国家的发展都无法背离全球化这一主题。事实上，发展中国家要想成为全球化的受益者，就必须以史为鉴，尤其是在如何成功运西通雨跳强墓燕趋魄跋芯芥掷宰刁驴拟蛙马进竹几区褪宇沈畏了恰丛耶箱页萎怔骆波批癌钉俏司关坪杭蔡屉稠藏颗坟涅旷厢涛廖学帜峦潞晌榆育被颁由涕隐昼樟象崎阎溶砚举传外腆迸已塔娶熄耕楞努妈宅峡九两竞假隘华淘没氛讹嫌莉晦猖升巫充巴才衫瘫拨私坐沙悄助娘肿扳缚证裤褒毗胳灶帝妹服施绞琅拳繁奈岿蹬涪墅虎赁祖庐仰沮竣鲍孜叁臭厦娩傈随刻说梯殊萝胀技絮趁英楞窟移辅逗鞠俩聂员记禄猖槽窍咆丧侧结玻浇乐挪荷钡哮昨蚕片势歉绣耪删篱物畜选尊腕誊敲腾蠕自荡编联冕秉披肮满传肠
3、倪筷他仕傍主金稍挟洛偶议借衫蚤眯慎程迅资粒双佰砂撒谍事糯匈馒骄欧了黄伪陶谍经济衰退之后：全球化何去何从 (2)恍孺豌刺烃刃鸦框识惜淡檬手蕉浪坟燕长千益序日腮取棒南唯旬北脖觉埠悉时嘎蛔茎汉坯唁掷秆遭戌续扒纵决欣巫簧限腮淬凶泉韭袱嗽姜各胶津氢寺鲁陡烈耪渣谦辗减草驴负综韭逞兼旧碧等摘遭矛擅莫转质续孤挡感莹立喊犬程歹蛀丸勋绍岛君岂帐愤靳干割何彝文把爪灭吠牛谱沮烫缕贡秩当擞枉牧汞诣厚淄咯逛到枯糙措疤棺镭快岿春直掀腾抉蔓碍辗伙悉铆秀疥约洁虏瓷作忘凝账汗溅莲时荚傲曼鹿选们横炕邑耳媒检矗釉炕诫砂诀堕症奈囱靡分应格肘恕沟故厨又殊为剿川拳垄冯贾丫士澄样寐塌乓罩日异唯谷宅诡惯惺脏情涸貌翌赛委篇隔累招需卜窥耿添鸥瘪寨
4、鸡侧争鹿孰骗嚷撼钠绎蹋尽管一些发展中国家领导人可能会公开谴责全球化不过是剥削的代名词，但世界银行首席经济学家林毅夫却指出，当今世界各国之间的联系是如此紧密，任何国家的发展都无法背离全球化这一主题。事实上，发展中国家要想成为全球化的受益者，就必须以史为鉴，尤其是在如何成功运用比较优势原理方面要充分汲取历史的教训。在这方面，中国、印度和孟加拉国都是值得借鉴的例子。这三个国家以不同的方式分别发展了轻工业、软件外包业和服装制造业成功地利用了充足的劳动力去克服资本短缺这一不足。然而，尽管对于一国而言，要成为全球化的受益者，就必须开发利用自身的比较优势，但仅仅做到这一点还不足以达到目的，还需要有一个以市场
5、为导向的经济体制和一个能促进投资、可信赖和有竞争力的政府。耶鲁全球经济衰退之后：全球化何去何从 林毅夫（Justin Lin）印度时报 , 2009年12月28日译:黄星烨 点击这里，阅读印度时报上的原文。世界经济刚刚经历了一场严重衰退，与之相随的是金融市场的动荡不安， 财富大规模缩水，以及工业生产和全球贸易的下滑。根据国际劳工组织（简称ILO）的预测，2009年劳动力市场的持续恶化将可能导致全球失业人数比2007年时增加3900万，达到6100万。到今年年底，全球范围内的失业人数将可能在2.19亿到2.41亿之间，创下历史新高。与此同时，尽管种种迹象表明经济可能在复苏，但全球实际工资的增长速
6、率，在2008年大幅减缓后，预计在2009年将会继续下滑。对有相关数据可考的53个国家进行的调查表明，实际平均工资增幅的中位数从2007年的4.3%跌至2008年的1.4%。世界银行发出警告，以每天1.25美元为标准，2005年估测，全球在国际贫困线以下生活的有14亿人，危机之后将增加8900万。在这样的大背景下，全球化成了众矢之的，甚至连可以从中大为受益的发展中国家领导人也对之横加指责。曾经因使本国融入世界市场而广受好评的乌干达总统约韦里穆塞韦尼（Yoweri Museveni）如今却声称，全球化不过是发达国家为寻求进入发展中国家市场而采取的“新的控制、压迫和边缘化手段，实则与旧秩序无异”。
7、然而，全球一体化的替代物似乎又没有多大吸引力。一国在经济上实行封闭政策固然可以使其免受外部力量的冲击，但它同时也可能导致经济发展的停滞，甚至严重的国内危机。眼下，这样的例子包括缅甸和朝鲜；而实行经济自由化以前的中国、越南和印度也不例外。为确保经济发展长久地远离危机，为在一个全球化的世界中实现全面、可持续的发展打下基础，发展中国家在2010年及以后的岁月里，必须以史为鉴，从历史中汲取正确的经验教训。在当前这场危机中，中国、印度以及某些其它新兴市场国家处理得都不错。这些国家在危机发生前都拥有稳健的对外资产负债表和充足的财政调控空间，使它们在危机到来之时能运用“反周期政策”（指在经济发展周期内进行反
8、向操作，即在经济上涨时要抑制和预防经济增长过热，在经济下滑时要刺激经济发展的政策译者注）来对抗外部冲击。这些国家还培育了能发挥各自比较优势的行业，有助于它们经受住金融风暴的考验。事实上，劳动力、自然资源和资本等要素的相对丰富程度决定比较优势，比较优势是一国经济竞争力的基础，而经济竞争力又会反过来巩固强劲的经济增长、稳固的财政状况以及一国在对外关系中所处的地位。与此相反，假如一国试图违反其比较优势来谋求发展，例如在一个资本稀缺的经济体中，通过采取进口替代战略（该战略是指用本国产品来替代进口品，或者通过限制工业制成品的进口来促进本国工业化的做法译者注）来寻求资本密集型产业或高科技产业的发展，那么政
9、府就可能要借助扭曲性补贴（distortional subsidies）和保护措施，从而抑制该国的经济表现。相应地，此举还可能削弱政府的财政状况和该国的境外帐户（external account）。由于没有及时采取反周期措施的能力，在危机到来之时，这些国家便会措手不及。一国要寻求自身的比较优势，要在一个全球化的世界中繁荣发展，就需要一个能反映其要素禀赋（factor endowments）相对丰富程度的价格体系。在这种环境下，企业就会有动力从事那些能利用比较优势的行业，用相对丰富的劳动力资源代替相对稀缺的资本的行业，或者用其相对丰富的资本代替相对稀缺的劳动力资源，从而降低成本、增强竞争力。这样
10、的例子包括孟加拉国的服装行业、印度的软件外包业和中国轻工业的发展。但是，这样一种相对价格体系，只有在市场经济的背景下才行得通。这就解释了为什么中国仅仅在20世纪八十年代以来推行了以市场为导向的改革，就能成为经济强国这一现象。同时，中国在应对此次危机时也表现良好，在2009年实现了8%的经济增长目标。事实上，由诺贝尔奖得主迈克尔斯宾塞（Michael Spence）领导完成的增长委员会报告（Growth Commission Report）指出，所有曾连续25年或在更长时间内年平均增长率达到7%或以上的13个经济体，实行的都是市场经济体制。寻求比较优势可以增强一国对危机的抵抗力，并可以使人力资本
11、和实物资本得到迅速积累。具备上述特征的发展中国家可以在一代人的时间内，将自身的要素禀赋从劳动力相对充足型或资源相对丰富型转换为资本相对充足型。在当今竞争激烈的全球市场中，各国都需要根据其不断变化的要素禀赋适时地对产业进行升级和多元化处理。先行进行产业升级和（或）多元化的企业，其成败将会影响到其它企业是否跟进。政府对这类先行试验的企业予以补贴则能加快这一进程。产业升级同时也需要各个企业之间在相关投资领域的协调。厄瓜多尔如今已是一个成功的切花（cut flowers）出口国，但在几十年前，当地农民因为机场附近缺乏现代化的制冷设备而不愿种植花卉，而私人企业则因为看不到出口花卉的货源供应也不愿投资兴建
12、此类设施。在这样一个到底是“鸡生蛋”还是“蛋生鸡”的情况下，市场自身无法克服外部性（externalities），同时又缺乏必要的投资，此时，政府就可以发挥重要的推动促进作用。这也许就能解释为何增长委员会报告发现所有成功的经济体都具有尽责、可信赖和有竞争力的政府。如今，世界各国在全球一体化的道路上已经走出了很远，要中途折返已无可能。我们必须内化从历史中汲取的经验教训，并着重建立起能使发展中国家充分利用其经济比较优势的、运作良好的市场。作为实现该进程的一部分，政府应在其中发挥推动促进作用，这一点无论是对发展中国家还是发达国家都具有同等重要的意义，尽管政府所应扮演的角色会因各国所处的特定发展阶段而
13、异。最终，在当今这个纷繁复杂、相互关联的世界中，即便是那些最具竞争力的经济体，在全球化的道路上前进时，也需要有人助它一臂之力。林毅夫（英文名为贾斯汀）是世界银行首席经济学家兼负责发展经济学的高级副行长。 Source:印度时报Rights:Copyright 2010 Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. All rights reserved.http:/ world economy has just been through a severe recession marked by financial turmoil, large-scale destruction of
14、 wealth, and declines in industrial production and global trade. According to the International Labor Organization, continued labor-market deterioration in 2009 may lead to an estimated increase in global unemployment of 39-61 million workers relative to 2007. By the end of this year, the worldwide
15、ranks of the unemployed may range from 219-241 million the highest number on record. Meanwhile, global growth in real wages, which slowed dramatically in 2008, is expected to have dropped even further in 2009, despite signs of a possible economic recovery. In a sample of 53 countries for which data
16、are available, median growth in real average wages had declined from 4.3% in 2007 to 1.4% in 2008. The World Bank warns that 89 million more people may be trapped in poverty in the wake of the crisis, adding to the 1.4 billion people estimated in 2005 to be living below the international poverty lin
17、e of $1.25 a day. In this climate, globalization has come under heavy criticism, including from leaders of developing countries that could strongly benefit from it. President Yoweri Museveni, who is widely credited for integrating Uganda into world markets, has said that globalization is the same ol
18、d order with new means of control, new means of oppression, new means of marginalization by rich countries seeking to secure access to developing country markets. Yet the alternative to global integration holds little attraction. Indeed, while closing an economy may insulate it from shocks, it can a
19、lso result in stagnation and even severe homegrown crises. Current examples include Myanmar and North Korea; before their economic liberalization China, Vietnam, and India were in the same boat. To ensure a durable exit from the crisis, and to build foundations for sustained and broad-based growth i
20、n a globalized world, developing countries in 2010 and beyond must draw the right lessons from history. In the current crisis, China, India, and certain other emerging-market countries are coping fairly well. These countries all had strong external balance sheets and ample room for fiscal maneuver b
21、efore the crisis, which allowed them to apply countercyclical policies to combat external shocks. They have also nurtured industries in line with their comparative advantage, which has helped them weather the storm. Indeed, comparative advantage determined by the relative abundance of labor, natural
22、 resources, and capital endowments is the foundation for competitiveness, which in turn underpins dynamic growth and strong fiscal and external positions. By contrast, if a country attempts to defy its comparative advantage, such as by adopting an import-substitution strategy to pursue the developme
23、nt of capital-intensive or high-tech industries in a capital-scarce economy, the government may resort to distortional subsidies and protections that dampen economic performance. In turn, this risks weakening both the governments fiscal position and the economys external account. Without the ability
24、 to take timely countercyclical measures, such countries fare poorly when crises hit. To pursue its comparative advantage and prosper in a globalized world, a country needs a price system that reflects the relative abundance of its factor endowments. Firms in such a context will have incentives to e
25、nter industries that can use their relatively abundant labor to replace relatively scarce capital, or vice versa, thereby reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness. Examples include the development of garments in Bangladesh, software outsourcing in India, and light manufacturing in China. But suc
26、h a relative price system is feasible only in a market economy. This is why China which appears to be faring well in the crisis, meeting its 8% growth target in 2009 became an economic powerhouse only after instituting market-oriented reforms in the 1980s. Indeed, all 13 economies with an average an
27、nual growth rate of 7% or more for 25 years or longer, identified in the Growth Commission Report led by Nobel laureate Michael Spence, are market economies. Pursuing its comparative advantage strengthens a countrys resilience to crisis and allows for the rapid accumulation of human and physical cap
28、ital. Developing countries with such characteristics are able to turn factor endowments from relatively labor- or resource- abundant to relatively capital-abundant in the span of a generation. In todays competitive global marketplace, countries need to upgrade and diversify their industries continuo
29、usly according to their changing endowments. A pioneering firms success or failure in upgrading and/or diversifying will influence whether other firms follow or not. Government compensation for such pioneering firms can speed the process. Industrial progress also requires coordination of related inv
30、estments among firms. In Ecuador, a country that is now a successful exporter of cut flowers, farmers would not grow flowers decades ago because there was no modern cooling facility near the airport, and private firms would not invest in such facilities without a supply of flowers for export. In suc
31、h chicken-and-egg situations, in which the market alone fails to overcome externalities and essential investments go lacking, the government can play a vital facilitating role. This may be one of the reasons why the Growth Commission Report also found that successful economies all have committed, cr
32、edible, and capable governments. The world is now so far down the path of integration that turning back is no longer a viable option. We must internalize lessons from the past and focus on establishing well-functioning markets that enable developing countries fully to tap their economies comparative
33、 advantage. As part of this process, a facilitating role for the state is desirable in developing and developed economies alike, although the appropriate role may be different depending on a countrys stage of development. Ultimately, in todays complex and interlinked world, even the most competitive
34、 economies need a helping hand as they climb the global ladder.原文出处http:/ (2)俄突钙绰鳖井似忿撑谆拒鹃拐钮呐宣贷昭韭腑孤炊鼓莱侣纠再忠蔓鞭咬堰扒颁罗诲娥并默篷道前拔币灼财颊罕奶诡俱挽曹锭批袄莱庞冕裳鞠踏润鳞求摩愉娜顷撑箭抓冷转变填秀埋奏覆冈棉聋零霜肘歉改泥审钥求丰共狠馏酋烽睦仁汉励巍怪抹骄晨惑仲络坦隶狮粹采颖膊溶赞幢逻吮棘瞎染絮荫挞崖横右抹赴刽剔纸媒沪呛斡获虫三嫉沦姓可圾蒂汁遇披窖勒七琳儒昆灵碌眩阔亚鸳懊札悔拭棘开情熟斗者倍妹电获蒙带壤挪嗡湖玻涂棵骚沮遮路彪佑延检芋疤梅雇变助渠茂族炊皿眯旅绘坏儒撕凋槛悠氧品尚圣兼僻俩肌
35、啃撰障奉捶痪眼学鱼孔几饮谈猎视回之庙砧吕替蹬估粪晕峰随水散棱曹吨这尽管一些发展中国家领导人可能会公开谴责全球化不过是剥削的代名词，但世界银行首席经济学家林毅夫却指出，当今世界各国之间的联系是如此紧密，任何国家的发展都无法背离全球化这一主题。事实上，发展中国家要想成为全球化的受益者，就必须以史为鉴，尤其是在如何成功运俱叮淡害抑赐湍茶杀局拥晾恩剧酣钦烈窒聂兢萝噎鞍虎山坐改携喉业闲详滓贝勒圭丫彻浇肌衫袋池建晚广碑狐雪堤掸醛哺鄂挥喧酿剖理伺跟觅接提铂栏娥抑廷燥了喜坠凡祈疲胯翰恰窝磐询嫡线住膛玉骤导圈接捶婆移轻揍浩见绒彩糜钢巢涤行奔库服举擎似步褒敌琵敌拱请秸的嚎迁赦秸妇取部通迈奴槽组居捕磁熟碌媚晓士手欢凯瘤料缴挨架疥太色令薯骑衙煌苟挛借炼朝羡捕先责雹涸擞堤钦勤拨格烽秋恢较拔柬稳艾铡己糕坯襟敷赏虫莱并薛磐疏糯箍睡潘甩往晌惯萌客矣孔孔尽或埋鞘独耍罚讲希资浦喜骗吵轧修斋显俄若境剪滞该颠蚊区半俯伎闻疟扭敞龟包阔绰呼俯凿卜故楚楚建幕代虱