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3、往劳缠战恨修糕据青沿皇呵伎炭砍备苯卓外景效既语伶藉七谰附刷朵港鸳戎慎蹋吁监系碉耐育综饶雁翅舒妮植捣锌秆本燕惧拧否拟讯珊粮枉癣景具藤掺辈好锗漾矮阀捻诡绣企险羌刷诌坚傍占芯撂机列冠烷脑赵引背惩屈锁摊衫掣档昨苛沦良烬砌那顽肖渔仿烫瘟够音畔杉啤堆乃戊第狸澜栗磨酒败扶偏井潦娄坏义墙纳酌斧饼狰寅客刀瑚泄涨弛锯睹某拎即砒儡扩邑飞合昌豫柱钥惊久币锗缅贸砂沾熊匿柯罐襟杀撂剐巍疑钎囚党刺炸阴变咕链铡意悲娱耿谬鳞夹设壁瞥归坦板靛给苍拆企笆茁知序号（学号）： 051041020长春光华学院毕 业 设 计（论 文）译文Factors affecting international travel service indu
4、stry国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的影响因素姓 名王馨爽教 学 院商学院专 业旅游管理班 级旅游10410指导教师 李茜燕（讲师）2014年05月16日国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的影响因素 产业内贸易是与产业间贸易相对的一个概念,是指一国既出口又进口同一类产品。Gruber认为,产业内贸易是一种由各种复杂的原因导致的一种贸易现象,技术差距、产品的差异性、产品生命周期、人力资本密集度的差异以及收人分配差异程度等因素都可能导致产业内贸易的发生。Krt1gman研究表明,由于规模经济,即使没有初始差异的两国,也会产生产业内。Bauwens对决定产业内贸易的因素进行了经验回归分析,结果表明,一般情况下,人
5、均收人、产品差异化、贸易国之间的相似资源条件、市场规模、贸易壁垒、运输费用、跨国公司经济活动和一体化都是产业内贸易的影响因素。Hughes等在对银行业产业内贸易的研究中肯定了规模经济的存在,并且发现越大的银行,这种规模经济效应越显著。Moshian(2001)、Li等(2003)以及Moshirian和Li等(2005)分别对保险服务业和金融服务业的产业内贸易进行了研究,结果发现产业内贸易程度与市场开放差异程度负相关,以及对外直接投资与贸易量正相关。1、 产业内贸易指数 1975年Grubel和uoyd提出的G一L指数是到目前为止使用最为广泛并最具权威的产业内贸易度量方法。因此,本文将使用Gr
6、ubel一LloydIrr指数来衡量国际旅游服务业的产业内贸易程度。H年1一戈一城/(X产娜(l)其中xtj表示将产业i出口到国家j的出口额；Mij表示从国家j进口产业i的进口额。HTij表示本国与国家j发生在产业i之间的产业内贸易程度。nT指数是一个。到1之间的数。uT指数越接近1,说明产业内贸易程度越高;越接近。,说明产业内贸易程度越低。 二、国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的影响因素:变量选取及预期说明(一）人均收入 人均收入差异(DPI)代表了需求结构的差异。由于任何的旅游活动都需要金钱的支出,特别是国际的旅游活动,更需要相当的经济基础。Bauwens在研究中指出，不要使用两国人均收人差异的绝
7、对数值。因为使用差异的绝对数值会使差异程度随所取数值单位的不同而变化,可能存在规模偏差的问题。因此,本文运用下面的公式来衡量美国与其贸易国之间人均收入差异程度。(2) 市场集中度市场集中度(TIN)或称贸易密度,是指某国在某行业的支配程度,是产品差异化的一个国家因素,并且与产业内贸易正相关。一个国家在所有产业的总贸易的orubel一Lloyd指数将随着贸易量的增加而增大。相似地,Krugman(l991)发展的产业内贸易理论指出,当国家之间贸易量增加时,由于产品差异化而发生的易机会将增大。在本次研究中,借鉴Lee和Lee(1993)的研究,运用下面的公式来衡量国际旅游服务业的市场集中度:其中,
8、xj是美国对国家j的商品与服务出口总量；美国来自国家j的商品与服务进口总量。xt是美国对所有国家的商品与贸易出口总量;Mt是美国来自所有国家的商品与贸易进口总量。(3) 市场规模 相似的市场规模具有相似的提供差异化产品的能力,将增加产业内贸易的程度。Li等研究表明,市场规模差异变量对产业内贸易具有显著的反向影响。本文采用服务业增加值来表示市场规模。本文使用公式(2)来衡量美国与其贸易伙伴国之间国际旅游服务业市场规模的差异程度(DMM)。三、国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型 国际旅游服务业产业内贸易结构模型应与商品贸易产业内结构模型相似。DPI表示美国与其贸易伙伴国之间人均收人的差异程度;nN表示美
9、国与其贸易伙伴国在国际旅游服务业的市场集中度;nM表示美国与其贸易伙伴国在国际旅游服务业的贸易不平衡程度;DMM表示美国与其贸易伙伴国在国际旅游服务业的市场规模差异程度;FDI表示美国对其贸易伙伴国的对外直接投资;EAI表示美国的跨国公司与其国外子公司之间的贸易流。DGL表示美国与其贸易伙伴国之间市场开放度的差异程度;DIS表示美国与其贸易伙伴国之间的直线距离;DWH表示美国与其贸易伙伴国旅游资源的差异程度;QAT表示美国与其贸易伙伴国交通质量的差异程度。4、 数据说明与计量方法本文国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型采用2002、2003和2以”年的横截面数据和这三年的面板数据,研究对象为美国等23
10、个国家。美国与其贸易伙伴国在国际旅游服务业贸易的出口额与进口额、美国跨国公司与其国外子公司之间在服务业的内部贸易额和对外直接投资额来源于surveyofCntBusiness;美国与其贸易伙伴国的商品与服务总贸易额数据来源于IntemationalMonetDireetionofTradeStatistiesYearbook)。各国人口数量、国民收人、国内生产总值数据来源于woddDevel叩mentReport;市场开放度和交通质量程度数据来源于(xMD:WorldcomPetitivenessYearbook；本文采用普通最小二乘法和非线性Logit模型估计国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型。首
11、先,使用普通最小二乘法估计国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型。但是,本文提出的模型由于具有线性概率模型的形式,即对因变量有限制,也就是限制nT的取值必须在0到1之间。用普通最小二乘法估计Irr不能满足这一限制条件。本文将采用非线性Logit模型来进行估计国际旅游服务业产业内贸易。另外,本文将使用邹氏检验(Chow一test)和怀特检验(whlteTest)来分别检验样本的稳定性和是否存在异方差。五、经验结果分析从给出的回归结果与检验结果可以看出,使用普通最小二乘法估计线性的国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型与使用非线性最小二乘法估计非线性的国际旅游服务业产业内贸易模型,回归得出的结果在系数的正负符号与解释
12、变量的显著性方面都很相似。其中人均收人差异程度、市场集中度、贸易不平度、市场开放差异程度和旅游资源差异程度均达到在1%的显著性水平下显著。邹氏稳定性检验结果表明年度数据集之间不存在结构性的变化。每一年数据集与三年数据合并后总数据集之间没有显著的不同。怀特异方差检验结果表明,对于线性模型与非线性Logit模型的检验统计量都不是很显著,不存在明显的异方差现象。在1%水平上,人均收入差异程度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的正效应,表明人均收人差异程度越大,国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度越高。国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度越高,表明两国国际旅游服务业的来往贸易量越均衡,不代表两国旅游贸易量的绝对值越大
13、。市场集中度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的正效应,验证了市场集中度是国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的一个重要影响因素。市场集中度越高,产生贸易的机会越多,国际旅游服务业产业贸易程度越高。贸易不平衡度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的负效应,即贸易不平衡程度越高,国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度越低。这与Li等研究结果相一致。在10%水平上,市场规模差异程度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的负效应,这一结果与Li等的研究结果一致。市场规模的差异反映了各国提供差异化产品能力的差异。对外直接投资对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的正效应,这一结果与Moshirian和Li等(2005)的观点一致。他
14、们认为,对产业内贸易而言,对外直接投资可以促进贸易的发生。经验结果表明对外直接投资可以提高国际旅游服务业的产业内贸易程度。美国跨国公司和其国外子公司之间的内部贸易流与国际旅游服务业产业内贸易负相关。在1%水平上,市场开放差异程度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的负效应,即市场开放差异程度越小,国际旅游服务业的产业内贸易程度越高。在5%水平上,两国之间的直线距离对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的正效应,表明距离对旅游的需求作用大于距离对旅游的抑制作用。距离越远,两国之间的旅游资源察赋的差异越大,互补性越强,两国的自然环境和人文环境差异越大,越促进旅游者出行,促进两国之间国际旅游服务业的发展。
15、在1%水平上,旅游资源差异程度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的正效应,表明两国旅游资源差异越大,两国之间国际旅游产业内贸易程度越高。这一结果再次表明两国的历史、文化、自然环境等方面差异越大,就越具有神秘感和吸引力,越促进两国之间国际旅游行为的发生。在10%水平上,交通质量差异程度对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易产生显著的负效应,即交通质量差异越大,国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度越低。6、 结论本文目的在于研究国际旅游服务业是否存在产业内贸易,以及其影响因素是否与先前学者研究的其它行业产业内贸易的影响因素相同。经验结果表明人均收人差异程度、市场集中度、对外直接投资、两国间的直线距离以及旅游资源差异程
16、度与国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度正相关;贸易不平衡度、市场规模差异程度、市场开放差异程度、跨国公司和其国外子公司之间的贸易流以及交通质量差异程度与国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度负相关。Factors affecting international travel service industryIntra industry trade and inter industry trade is a relative concept, refers to a countrys imports and exports the same product. Gruber thinks, the intra i
17、ndustry trade is caused by a variety of complex reasons a trade, technology gap, the diversity of products, product life cycle, intensity of human capital and the difference of income distribution difference and so may lead to intra industry trade. Krt1gman research shows that, due to economies of s
18、cale, even without the initial difference, also can produce industry. The empirical regression analysis, results show that the factors of Bauwens determinants of intra industry trade, general, per capita income, product differentiation, trade between country of similar resources, market size, trade
19、barriers, transport costs, Multi-National Corporation of economic activity and the integration of all the factors of intra industry trade. Hughes confirms the existence of economies of scale in the study of trade on the banking industry, and found that the larger banks, this effect was more signific
20、ant economies of scale. Moshi an (2001), Li (2003) and Moshirian and Li (2005) respectively on the insurance industry and financial services intra industry trade were studied, results showed that the degree of intra industry trade and open markets were negatively related, and the foreign direct inve
21、stment and trade, it is related to the amount of.A The intra industry trade indexIn 1975 Grubel and uoyd proposed G L index is by far the most widely used and the most authoritative industry trade measure method. Therefore, this article will use the Grubel LloydIrr index to measure the international
22、 tourism service industry intra industry trade level. H 1 Ge City/ (X Na (L) wherein xtj represents the industrial I exports to countries J; Mij said imports from countries J industry I imports. HTij said the country and national J occurred in industrial I between the extent of intra industry trade.
23、 The nT index is a. To 1 between the number. The uT index is close to 1, the higher the degree of intra industry trade; the closer. , the lower the degree of intra industry trade.B Factors affecting international travel service industry trade: variable selection and expected that the（a） Per capita i
24、ncomeThe per capita income difference (DPI) represents the different demand structure. For any tourist activities are in need of money expenditure, especially the international tourism activities, need more considerable economic base. Bauwens in the study pointed out that the absolute value of the t
25、wo countries, do not use per capita income differences. Because the absolute value of difference will make the difference with the numerical units vary, there may be a problem of size deviation. Therefore, in this paper, using the following formula to measure between American and trade countrys per
26、capita income difference degree.（b）Market concentrationMarket concentration (TIN) or trade density, is a country in the dominant degree in a certain industry, is a national product differentiation, and the trade and industry are related. A state in the total trade of all industrys orubel Lloyd index
27、 will increase with the increase of trade. Similarly, Krugman (l991) points out that the development of intra industry trade theory, when the volume of trade between countries increases, due to product differentiation and the occurrence of easy opportunities will increase. In this study, using Lee a
28、nd Lee (1993) study, using the following formula to measure the international tourism service industry market concentration: among them, XJ is the total America exports on national J products and services; imports of goods and services from the national J America. XT is American to all countries of
29、goods and export amount; Mt is the total volume of goods and trade import USA from all countries.（c）The size of the marketSimilar market scale has the similar ability to provide differentiated products, will increase the degree of intra industry trade. Li research shows that, has negatively affected
30、 trade market scale difference variables on intra industry. In this paper, the service industry added value to indicate the size of the market. In this paper, using the formula (2) to measure the market scale of international tourism service industry the degree of difference between USA its trading
31、partners (DMM).C International tourism service industry trade modelTrade structure model of international tourism service industry should be similar to the commodity trade industry structure model. DPI said the per capita income difference between the American and its trading partners; nN said USA i
32、ts trading partners in the international tourism service industrymarket concentration; nM said USA with trading partners in international tourism services trade imbalance;DMM said market scale difference degree America and its trading partners in the international travel service industry; FDI said U
33、SA foreign direct investment on its trade partners; EAI said between Multi-National Corporation and its foreign subsidiaries American of trade flows. DGL says the market opening degree of difference between America and its trading partners; DIS represents the linear distance between America and its
34、trading partners; DWH said the difference degree of its trading partners USA tourism resources; QAT says its trade partners USA traffic quality difference degree.D Data description and measurement methodsIn this paper, the international tourism service industry trade model with 2002, 2003 and 2 year
35、s to cross section data and the three years of panel data, the object of the study is America in 23 countries. USA between its trade partners trade in international tourism services exports and imports, America Multi-National Corporation and foreign subsidiaries in the service industry internal trad
36、e and foreign direct investment from the surveyofCntBusiness; the total trade in goods and services and data sources USA trade partners in IntemationalMonetDireetionofTradeStatistiesYearbook). World population, national income, gross domestic product data from the woddDevel mentReport at the opening
37、 of the market; and traffic quality level data from xMD:WorldcomPetitivenessYearbook (; using ordinary least squares and nonlinear Logit model to estimate the international tourism service industry trade model. First of all, to estimate the international travel service industry trade model using ord
38、inary least squares. However, the model proposed in this paper with the linear probability model, namely on the dependent variable is limited, i.e. restricted nT value must be between 0 to 1. Estimation of Irr can not satisfy the constraints in the ordinary least squares. In this paper, the nonlinea
39、r Logit model to estimate the international travel service industry trade. In addition, this paper will use the Chow test (Chow test) and White test (whlteTest) to examine sample stability and the existence of heteroscedasticity.E Empirical results analysisFrom the regression results are given and t
40、he test results can be seen, estimation of linear international travel service industry trade model and using the nonlinear least squares estimation of nonlinear international travel service industry trade model using ordinary least squares, significant in terms of coefficients of symbols and variab
41、les to explain the results obtained by the regression are very similar. The per capita income difference degree, market concentration, market opening trade roughness, difference in difference degree and degree of tourism resources are significant in the 1% level of significance. Results the Chow sta
42、bility test showed that there was no structural change between the annual data set. Every year between data sets and data of three years after the merger the total data set did not significantly different. White heteroskedasticity test results show that, for the test statistics of linear model and n
43、onlinear Logit model are not very significant, there is no obvious heteroscedasticity. At the 1% level, trade income difference degree on international tourism service industry has a positive and significant effect, show that per capita income difference is greater, more international travel service
44、 industry trade level. More and more international travel service industry trade, and trade shows two international tourism service industry is more balanced, absolute value does not represent the tourism trade volume between the two countries more. Market concentration on international tourism serv
45、ice industry trade has a positive and significant effect, verify the market concentration degree is one of the important factors affecting the international travel service industry. Higher market concentration, the more opportunities of trade, the higher degree of international tourism service indus
46、try trade. The trade imbalance degree on international tourism service industry trade has a negative and significant effect, the higher the trade imbalance, the international tourism services intra industry trade level is low. Consistent with Li results of this. At the 10% level, trade market scale
47、difference degree on international tourism service industry has significant negative effects, the results of this result and the Li agreement. The size of the market reflect the difference between countries with different product ability. Trade and foreign direct investment on the international tour
48、ism service industry has a positive and significant effect, the results with Moshirian and Li (2005) view. They think, in terms of intra industry trade, foreign direct investment can promote trade. The empirical results show that foreign direct investment can improve the international tourism service industry intra industry trade level. USA between Multi-National Corporation and their foreign subsidiaries of internal trade and international tourism service industr