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1、中国公共财政热点问题,林 双 林 北京大学经济学院财政学系 教授兼系主任 北京大学中国公共财政研究中心 主任 2011年7月 17日,主要内容 Outline,I. 中国经济发展与公共财政 Chinas Economic Development and Public Finance 税制改革 Tax Reforms 财政赤字和债务 Budget Deficits and Government Debt,I.1 中国经济发展 Chinas Economic Development 1978年开始的经济改革极大地改变了中国经济面貌 The economic reforms started in 1
2、978 has greatly changed Chinas economic landscape. Per Capita GDP Total GDP 人均GDP GDP总量 1978 - 381 元yuan 364.5 billion yuan 2008 -23,708 元yuan (PPPUS$6,020) 30,285.3 billion yuan 2009 -25,188 元yuan 33,535.3 billion yuan 2010 -29,745 元yuan (Exch Rate US$4,500美元) 39,798.3 billion yuan 中国 正向中等收入国家迈进,I.
3、 中国经济发展与公共财政 Chinas Economic Development and Public Finance,中国GDP增长率 Chinas GDP Growth 1978-2010,美国经济增长率,日本经济增长率,印度经济增长率,中国经济起飞 WSJ,中国成为第二大经济体 The Largest Economies in the World #1 United States美国 -GDP 2010, $14.72 trillion (est) #2 China中国 - $5.879 trillion #3 Japan日本 - $5.474 trillion WSJ Feb 13,
4、2011,2008 年部分国家国民收入 Population and GNI WDR 2010,2000 年世界人均财富(人均美元) Wealth of nations （$per capita） WDR 2010,I.2 中国经济面临的挑战 Challenges China faces 新时期我国出现新问题： 贫富差别大，地区差别大 环境污染 我国面临的长远问题： 人口老龄化 资源短缺 所有这些问题都与公共财政有关,部分国家基尼系数 Income GINI Coefficients in Selected Regions (2000-2010),Sources：United Nations:
5、 Human Development Report 2010,人口老龄化严重 Population Aging and Social Security Problem,65岁以上人口Population aged 65 or over 1990 - 63 million accounted for 5.6% of total population 2000 - 88 million 7% 2040 - over 20% 社会保障改革迫在眉睫 Social security reforms become necessary 中国社保有省、市、县级政府承担 Social Security is r
6、un by city- or province-level governments,2010,2050,人口老龄化要求对现有的社会保障体制进行改革 Social security payment will become a big issue,II. 税制改革 Tax Reforms II.1 税收的基本原则世界范围内的税制改革 Principles of Taxation and Worldwide Tax Reforms,II.1.1 中国传统财税思想 A. 轻徭薄赋，藏富于民 儒家自孟子后认为人心是善的，富人会救济穷人。即私人之间可以进行收入再分配，政府在收入再分配中的作用就不大了。人心
7、本来是善的，可以教化，应少用刑罚手段。政府规模要小。儒家主张小政府。 孟子认为，薄赋敛既能富民，又有利于发展生产。 在税收负担上，孟子主张 “什一而税”（孟子滕文公上）。 这成为以后2000多年儒家的税收信条。 Traditional thoughts on taxation in China A. Low Taxes, and kept wealth among people Mencius, a follower of Confucius, believed that people are kind, the rich will help the poor, and government
8、size should be small, and tax rate should be 10%. Confucianism dominated Chinas philosophy for a long time.,B.国家垄断，征隐形税 管仲就曾向齐桓公建议，直接向百姓征收人头税、房屋税、建筑税、林木税、六畜税等办法都不好，容易引起百姓对征税的反感。好的办法是控制国家的自然资源，“官山海”，实施食盐和铁器的国家专卖。食盐和铁器是人们日常生活和生产所必需，价再高也得买。专卖不仅可获得巨大财政收入，也不易引起民怨。 历史上茶叶、食油在中国都实行过国家专卖。 这些思想影响十分深远, 至今国有垄断企
9、业起着很大作用。 Implicit taxation More than 2000 years ago, Guan Zhong, the Prime Minister of Kingdom Qi, suggested to the King, the government should not collect head taxes, property taxes, and other taxes, to avoid peoples rebellion. Instead, the government should monopolize the sale of necessities, such
10、 as salt and iron, and sell at high prices. In history, even tea and cooking oil were once monopolized by the government. This thought is still influential today. SOEs and state dominated enterprises still produce about 28% of industrial output.,II.1.2 现代税收原则Modern Tax Principles,斯密 在国富论中提出 税制 4项原则
11、Adam Smith (1776) The Wealth of Nations, Book V 税制 4项原则Fourth maxims: (1) 公平，税负应该与纳税人 的能力成比例 Equality, taxes should be in proportion to taxpayers respective abilities; (2) 确定，纳税时间，方式，和数量必须确定、不随意 Certainty, time, manner, and quantity of tax on each individual must be certain, and not arbitrary; (3) 纳
12、税便利 Convenience for contributors to pay; (4) 征税成本低 Economy in collection 新添的原则Recently added principles: (1)促进经济持续增长，增加储蓄和劳动积极性 Growth stimulating, incentives to work and save; (2)促进社会福利水平提高 Welfare improving; (3)提供足够的税收Revenue sufficiency,II.2 世界范围的税制改革 Tax Reforms in the World,过去30年世界 税改的目标Objecti
13、ves of tax reforms： 促进经济增长，增加储蓄和资本积累，刺激劳动积极性，促进社会福利提高 资本积累是提高增值率和福利的关键 Capital accumulation is important for economic growth, wage increasing, and welfare improving; 哈罗德-多马模型：产出增长率 =储蓄率/资本与产量的比率 In the Harrod-Domar model, growth rate depends on the savings rate; 索罗模型：高储蓄率带来非稳态下的经济增长和稳态情况下的高人均收入In So
14、lows growth model, higher savings will lead to higher steady-state income, lead to growth in the transitional period, although not in the steady state; 新内生增长模型：储蓄带来长期经济增长In the endogenous growth model, savings and investment are positive related to growth; 所有的经验分析都证实投资与经济增长正相关 Empirical studies have
15、 shown investment is positively related to growth. 欧美储蓄率低 capital accumulation is related to savings, and the savings rate in the US and other industrialized countries have been low.,经济学家税改建议 Suggestions on tax reforms: 降低资本税 Reducing the tax rate on capital Diamond (1970), 资本税降低工资和个人的效用an increase
16、in the capital tax rate decreases the real wage rate and lower an individuals utility. Chamley (1981, 1986) and Judd (1985)，最优资本应该是零 show that the welfare-maximizing capital income tax should be zero in the steady state. Lucas (1990)，根本不应该对资本征税 argues that capital should not be taxed at all. “When I
17、 left graduate school, in 1963, I believed that the single most desirable change in the U.S. tax structure would be the taxation of capital gains as ordinary income. I now believe that neither capital gains nor any of the income from capital should be taxed at all. My earlier view was based on what
18、I viewed as the best available economic analysis, but of course I think my current view is based on better analysis.”,用消费税代替所得税 Replacing income tax by consumption tax Summers (1981), 消费税替代所得税会提高福利水平 a shift from capital taxation to consumption taxation would increase welfare substantially; Fullerto
19、n, Shoven, and Whalley (1983), Seidman (1989), Toder (1995), Hall (1996), and Hall and Rabushka (1996),消费税替代所得税会增加资本积累an increase in consumption taxation along with a decrease in income taxes will lower the interest rate and increase capital accumulation; 欧盟和世界100多个国家实行消费型的增值税EU and more than 100 co
20、untries adopted consumption-type of VAT, a money machine for the government. 美国没有实行增值税，原因在于该税收不利于收入再分配,缩小税制累进性Reduce progressivity of the income tax system; James Mirrlees (1971) 边际税率应该为非负，最高一档收入不应征税 optimal nonlinear income tax, optimal marginal tax rate. -He showed that the marginal tax rate shoul
21、d be nonnegative and should be zero for the highest income individual Peter Diamond (1998),边际税率应该为U型 -Marginal tax rate is inversed U shape Robert Hall and Rabushka (1985), 单一税率 The Flat Tax, -美国1981-1988降低最高一档收入的边际税率从70%到28% In Reagan reduced the highest marginal tax rate from 70% from 1981 to 28%
22、in 1988; -俄国2000年实行单一税率Russia adopted flat income tax, 13%; Many Eastern European countries did the same -Many believe in the 21th century, income tax should be more flat,Lower taxes and reduce the size of government King, Robert G. and Sergio Rebelo (1990), Barro (1991) 减少税收及缩小政府规模 经济学家一直建议 减税和减少政府
23、支出，但是许多欧美国家的政府只是减少税收，并没有减少开支，因此导致严重的赤字和政府债务。,30年来中国税制经历了分权让利、利改税、分税制等重大改革，为促进经济发展做出了贡献。 税制改革的历程： A. Allow State Enterprises to Keep Some Profits (分权让利) 1979 B. Substitute Taxes for Profit (利改税) 1983 C. The Contract Responsibility Tax System (包干制) 1986 D. Tax plus Profit System (利税分流) 1989 1978, 政府收入
24、占GDP 31%; 中央政府收入占 总收入 27% 1993, 12%; 22% E. Tax Sharing System and VAT Expansion (分税制及增值税扩大) 1994- F. Eliminate agricultural tax (取消农业税）2006 G. Merge corporate income tax for foreign 中央政府收入占 总收入 55%,中国财政收入增长迅速 2007年增长达到32% 2010年 21% The growth rate 32.4% in 2007 and 21.3% in 2010. 2011年上半年累计，全国财政收入5
25、6875.82亿元，比去年同期增加13526.03亿元，增长31.2%。 其中，中央本级收入28918.62亿 元，同比增长27%； 地方本级收入27957.2亿元，同比增长35.9%。 财政收入中的税收收入50028.43亿元，同比增长29.6%； 非税收入 6847.39亿元，同比增长44.5%。 增幅较高的主要原因： 1.经济增长带动税收增长，上半年，国内生产总值增长9.6%。 2.价格上涨带动以现价计算的相关税收增长，1-6月居民消费价格同比上涨5.4%，工业生产者出 厂价格同比上涨7.0%，带动以现价计算的相关税收相应增加。 3.特殊增收因素，进口环节税收等部分上年末收入在今年初集中
26、入库、上年企业效益较好带动今 年汇算清缴去年企业所得税入库比较多。 4.政策性增收因素，按有关规定将原预算外资金纳入预算管理，带动非税收入大幅增长，以及自2010年12月1日起 对外资企业征收城市维护建设税和教育费附加，相应增加一些收入。,政府实际财政收入及增长 （1978年不变价格） Real Government Revenues at 1978 Constant Price and its Growth Rates (1978-2010),预算外收入 Extra-budgetary Revenue,包括各种收费和基金收入等。八、九十年代规模大，1985年占预算收入的76%，1992年占1
27、11%。Extra budgetary revenue includes the fee and charges of local governments and central government agencies. It was quite large in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The ratio of extra-budgetary revenue to budgetary revenue was 76% in 1985 and reached 111% of budgetary revenues in 1992. 1994年税制改革
28、后，这样政府不再依赖预算外收入，主要是地方政府。中央比重1992年44%，2008年7%。After the 1994 tax reform, central government no longer relied on extra-budgetary revenues, and the share of central government in extra-budgetary revenue has significantly decreased. The central government share was 43.6% in 1992, down to only 8.7% in 20
29、05 and 7.4% in 2008. Thus, extra-budgetary revenue is important for local governments. 税制改革一直致力于减少预算外收入。预算外收入1995占预算收入的39%，2008年占11%；预算外收入1995占GDP的4%，2008年占2%。 Fiscal reforms have aimed at reducing the size of extra-budgetary revenues and expenditures. Extra-budgetary revenue accounted for 38.55% of
30、 budgetary revenue in 1995, and 10.79% in 2008. Extra-budgetary revenue accounted for 4.12% of GDP in 1995, 3.02% in 2005, and 2.1% in 2008.,预算外收入情况,地方政府有非预算收入Local governments also have off-budget revenues (called “the Little Golden Box”), which is unlawful. 非预算收入估计占 预算收入的30-40%左右，或占GDP的4-5%左右The s
31、ize of the off-budget revenue is about 30-40% of local government revenue and about 4-5% of GDP. 取缔非预算收入是完全可能的，但这会限制地方政府的自由、挫伤地方政府积极性 Eliminating the off-budget revenue is possible, but it will reduce local governments fiscal freedom.,非预算收入 Off-budgetary Revenue,财政收入占GDP的比重Government revenue share i
32、n GDP 预算收入、预算外收入、社会保障贡献 Budgetary Revenue, Extra-budgetary Revenue, Social Security Contribution 26% 加上非预算收入 Adding off-budgetary revenue 5% 总共 Total 31%,有关国家财政收入占GDP的比重 Government Revenue Share in GDP of Selected Regions,中国主要税种占总税收的比重 Revenue Shares of Major Taxes in China (%),2019/5/5,34,II.4 中国税制
33、面临的挑战 Challenges for Chinas Tax System,Ineffective in redistributing income 不能有效调节收入分配 High Tax Rates 税率过高 Shortage of local government revenue 地方政府财政收入不足 In effective in stimulating consumption 不能有效刺激消费,II.4.1 不能有效调节收入再分配 Tax System Ineffective in Income redistribution 大部分税种不是累进税 增值税: 最大税种，税率17%，20
34、08年占总税收33% 2009年后属于消费型，原来相当于单一所得税 营 业税：按营业额收, 税率6%，2008年占总税收14% 企业会将税金加入成本，提高价格，消费者不论收入高低，付一样的价格 因此，增值税和营业税都是累退的 个人所得税：不考虑家庭负担,累进税率5%-45%, 占总税收不到7% Most taxes are not progressive VAT：Tax rate 17%, accounted for 29% of total tax revenue in 2010 Business Tax: Tax rate 6%, 15% Consumption tax & VAT on
35、imports:14% Domestic Consumption tax: 8% VAT, business tax, consumption tax are regressive 66% Personal income tax: 6.6% Corporate income tax: 17.5%,没有个人财产税、遗产税、赠与税 No personal property tax, inheritance tax, gift tax 财产税的理论根据： 特别消费税 资本税或财富税 公共设施使用费，公共服务，如学校、公园、道路、警察等 Rational for property tax: Excis
36、e tax Capital tax or wealth tax User fee, provide services to the property, such as schools, parks, roads, police protection, etc 30年代中国进行了一系列财税改革，引入累进的所得税和遗产税等直接税。,2007年联邦财政收入组成 US Aggregate Federal Receipts by Source 特别消费税 Excise Taxes 3% 遗产和赠与税 Estate and Gift Taxes 1% 公司所得税 Corporate Income Tax
37、14% 个人所得税 Individual Income Tax 45% 雇佣税(社保） Employment Taxes 34% 其它税 Other Receipts 3%,没有个人财产税、遗产税、赠与税 No personal property tax, inheritance tax, gift tax 财产税的理论根据： 特别消费税 资本税或财富税 公共设施使用费，公共服务，如学校、公园、道路、警察等 Rational for property tax: Excise tax Capital tax or wealth tax User fee, provide services to
38、the property, such as schools, parks, roads, police protection, etc 30年代中国进行了一系列财税改革，引入累进的所得税和遗产税等直接税。,美国目前没有联邦财产税 2002年 州 政府财产税占总财产税的比重 3.5% 地方政府 96.5% In the US now, property tax is not a federal tax. In 2002, total $279 billion State governments: $9.7 billion 3.5% Local governments: $269 billion
39、96.5% 美国平均财产税率为 1.4%，其中德克萨斯为 2.6%，加州为0.68%,US Federal government estate tax rate 美国联邦政府遗产税,Year Exclusion Amount Max/Top tax rate 年 豁免额 最高税率 2001 $675,000 55% 2002 $1 million 50% 2003 $1 million 49% 2004 $1.5 million 48% 2005 $1.5 million 47% 2006 $2 million 46% 2007 $2 million 45% 2008 $2 million 4
40、5% 2009 $3.5 million 45% 2010 repealed 0% 2011 $1 million 55%,中国的税制是利于经济增长的，不利于收入再分配Chinas tax system is growth-oriented, not equality-oriented 从一定意义上讲，中国的税制正式西方主流经济学家所倡导的 In some sense, Chinas tax system is somewhat the tax system US mainstream economists proposed 他们想要更多的储蓄，我们想要更多的消费 They want more
41、 savings，we want to more consumption 他们建议增加消费税、减少储蓄税 They suggest more tax on consumption and less on savings,增值税 VAT 17% 公司所得税 Corporate Income Tax 25% 社会保障贡献 Social Security Contributions 28% Wages （20% Retirement，8% Healthcare） 个人所得税 Personal Income Tax 5-45% In the Forbes Tax Misery Index, China
42、 Rank No 2 The index based on corporate income tax, personal income tax, wealth tax, social security tax, and sales tax 根据福布斯2009年税负痛苦指数，中国内地的税负痛苦指数高居全球第2，仅次于法国。 这个指数的依据包括公司所得税、个人所得税、财富税、雇主及雇员社会保障金及销售税的税率.,II.4.2 高税率 High Tax Rates,美国公司所得税Federal Corporate Income Tax Rates in the US 2010,个人所得税率 Pers
43、onal Income Tax: 边际税率 Marginal tax rate 香港HK 2-17% 新加坡Singapore 3.5-20% 美国US 10-35% 中国边际税率高 Chinas marginal tax rate is high,II.4.3 地方财政收入短缺 Shortage of Local Government Revenues,地方政府发挥重要作用的时代已经到来The time for local government to play a more important role has come; 中国正在快速城市化，对公共基础设施和其它公共品的需求在增加 Chin
44、a is in the period of rapid urbanization, there is increasing demand for urban infrastructures and other public goods; 地方政府举债不足为奇 It is not surprised that local government has borrowed so much. 以美国为例 US: 1790-1842, 州政府投资多、举债多 State government was active in infrastructure investment, banks, canals, a
45、nd other transportation improvements; 1842-1933, 地方政府投资多、举债多 Local government invested more than state and federal government; 1933- , 联邦政府举债多 Federal government started to play an active role in intervening the economy and provide social security system,地方政府财力不足 Revenue Shortage of Local Government
46、s,In 1994, the central government set another goal: Central government revenue share 60% Local government revenue share 40% 地方政府收入比重下降 Share of local government revenue decreased: 78% in 1993, 49% in 2010 地方政府支出比重下降 Share of local government expenditure increased: 72% in 1993, 82% in 2010,地方主要税种占总税收
47、比重 Local Government Major Taxes as % of Local Tax Revenue,2019/5/5,49,中央转移支付Central Government Transfers: 税收返还Tax Rebates 项目配套Appropriations for Special Projects (Matching Grants) 一般性转移支付General Transfers 原体制下转移支付Fixed Subsidies or Submission under the Old System 决算补助Budgetary Subsidies 转移支付体系也是以增长为目标的，不能有效缩小地区差别 Transfer system is growth-promoting, but not for reducing f