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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS,Real Tech Conference Peter Stanger,E-COMMERCE IS DEAD,“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000,“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” F, April 2000,“Can you build a brand online selling third-p
2、arty goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes” Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read,“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever
3、seen.” Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson,TOM SIEBEL CEO, Siebel Systems,“If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”,THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WR
4、ONG,IS THE REVOLUTION OVER? July 28, 1794,THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS,1860 - 1890,1895 - 1925,FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK,LONG DISTANCE,Wholesale (Network) Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection,Retail Sales/marketing Account management Billing,Retail Sales/marketin
5、g Account management Billing,Network Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection,Retail,Retail Network intelligence Value added services,Wholesale service creation Network intelligence Value added services,Network management/dispatch,Wholesale,PHARMACEUTICALS,Research,Development,Tria
6、ls,Registration,Manufac- turing,Sales & marketing,Increased development costs Role of blockbusters increasing Quality outsourcers available Easier coordination,1980s,1990s,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac- turing,Sales & marketing,Academic labs,Biotech firms,Contract research organiz
7、ations,Contract mfrs,PBMs,JVs/ licensing,ELECTRIC UTILITIES,COMPUTER INDUSTRY,AT&T, MCI and Sprint, fragmented radically,Microprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chips,Computers,Operating systems,Applications software,Marketing, sales, and distribution,Common standards Time based competition,199
8、5,Intel,Motorola,AMD,Compaq,Dell,Apple,Packard Bell,IBM,DOS and Windows,UNIX,Mac OS,OS/2,Microsoft Office,WordPerfect,Others,Retail,Superstores,On-line,Mail order,NeXt,IBM , Digital,1997,Primary fuel,Power generation,Trading,Distribution,Backward integration to reduce risk Forward integration to ope
9、n supply channels,Scale through focusing on huge power plants,Synergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy business,New services for the customer,Ruhrkohle,Mobil,BP,Shell,National Power (UK),Electrobel (Belgium),RWE (Germany),Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway),Enron,United Utilities
10、(UK),South- ern Water,Eastern Elect-ricity (UK),Stadt- werke Munch- en (Ger- many),1990,1995,1985,1990,Statkraft (Norway),Oslo Energi (Norway),EVO (Germany),IVO (Finland),MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES,MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURING Digit
11、al Photography Example,Camera,Film,Equipment,Paper, chemicals,Photo-finisher,Reprint/ enlarge,Store/ display,Share with others,Processing,Analog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominate,Major players (2000 U.S. market share),Canon Nikon Olympus Minolta Kodak Fuji,Kodak (66%) Fuji,Kodak (Qualex) (40%) Fuj
12、i Photohuts,Album manufacturers Frame manufacturers,Mail services,disposables,EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES,65.1,17.8,Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0, Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive d
13、ata; industry association reports; analyst reports Note: Excludes financial brokerage,11.5,15.2,North American Business-to- Consumer Revenues ($B),20.6,+132%,+66%,+46%,26.7,44.5,Online channel 10% share in several categories,CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING,EBIT Margin in % of Revenues,1999,2000,Source: The
14、State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group,ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTS,Online Retailing,Ds Marketplaces CLECs,Cataloguers GE, Big 3 ILECs/IXCs,B2B,Telecom,RENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS,THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEAD,Illust
15、rative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010,Technology),Globalization,Deregulation,Electronic commerce,Source: BCG analysis,Deregulation and globalization index (1999=100),Technology and electronic commerce index (1999=100),A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!,Asse
16、t turns (sales/ assets),Cash flow margin in % of sales (%),Retail,Construction Machinery,Automobile,Chemicals,Utilities,Real Estate,Airline,Auto parts,Aerospace,Telecom,Source: BCG Analysis,A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!,Access Fibre Wireless Satellite Asset productivity focus,e-Procurement e-Sales Margin focus,Opportunity Space,Source: BCG Analysis,