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1、中国策略研究,福祸相依：2009流动性迷局,摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司 娄刚，执行董事 | 中国及香港策略师 Jerry.L +852 2848-6511,流动性推动经济复苏,政府推动流动性稳定资产价格，刺激相关经济活动,美国：片面资金投入，银行惜贷； 中国：银行大胆放贷，挑战极限,美国等发达国家的定量宽松政策显著提高了流动性,中国银行新增贷款和货币供应量激增,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,第一阶段：资产价格反应,全球资产价格回升,国内股票市场反弹,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,资产价格在政府主导的流动性注入之下全面上涨,第二阶段：实体经济反应,资产价格的上涨随之带来信心恢复和实体经济起稳
2、 经济反弹已经进入全面加速期,发达国家实体经济起稳,中国工业企业生产正在恢复,摩根士丹利预测数据；资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,未来：历史将再次重复,第三阶段（即将到来）：经济过热和资产泡沫化； 第四阶段终结篇：通胀和政策紧缩的到来。,2006-07年的经济过热和资产泡沫,2007年的通胀和加息,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,迷局1：政策紧缩的时间和力度,紧缩并非是当下的选择,经济的实际情况：内生增长乏力，增长模式严重失衡；紧缩底气不足； 金融体系现状：贷款过激，坏账风险隐现；紧缩时机很差,国有银行积极放贷推动固定资产投资,政府项目仍主导固定资产投资的增长,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士
3、丹利,真正的调控将在12个月之后,中国政策特性： 减息快，加息慢； 不盯资产价格，盯住通胀和增长 我们解读的紧缩轨迹： 从绝对放松，到适度放松，到微观调控（现在），到开闸泄洪（引导资金外流），到宏观调控（12个月以后）,利率和通胀高度相关,利率和股市水平无显著相关,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,迷局2：通胀会不会到来,理解现代货币：理解政策退出和通胀的关键,货币：生产要素和需求要素的标准化载体，其本身而并非生产要素； 现代货币的新特征：1）主权货币的出现代表政府接管了货币的超公信力，即经济创造变成政府创造； 2）货币成为政府拆借的手段和经济调控的工具； ）央行的独立性成为防止政府滥用货币的
4、关键；）货币的广义化代表金融活动本身对货币的再创造。 本次金融危机实际上是货币危机：）金融复杂化，金融机构对货币的再创造变得不可预计，也远远超出政府控制；）伯南克试验：政府创造流动性填补金融机构惜贷，控制危机蔓延；）所以，最后如果政策退出以金融机构的运作正常化为准，那么央行就还是独立的。 政策退出的两难：）回收流动性需要时间，而且不能动作过猛。 ）央行要先于市场半个货币政策周期的时间正确判断（或猜测）经济复苏的确立 这几乎是不可能的。3）通胀发生的时候就已经证明政策退出已经晚了。 结论：政策退出一定是迟到的，通胀是不可避免的。,通胀必然到来,通胀的本质：货币供应才是通胀之本，总需求只是标。总需
5、求是通胀的传导机制，不是发生机制 通胀从来就是一个货币现象。钞票印多了就会有通胀。所以在金融海啸以后的印钞大赛在美欧开始以后，通胀就不再是一个会不会发生的问题，而是什么时候发生的问题 通胀不是经济繁荣的特有现象。如果是，那津巴布韦应该是全世界最发达的国家。,中国的狭义货币供应量(M1)领先于通胀大约6个月,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,2010: 全球通胀,本次通胀的特殊背景：金融自由化和经济全球化以后的所谓通胀自我实现 经济全球化以后，通胀也变成一个全球现象。能源，粮食，大宗商品都可以很快地把通胀在全球传导。没有一个国家能独善其身不管你经济好不好。 在金融产品极大丰富的今天，通胀也成为一
6、种投资标的。由于投机金融资本的参与（放大实体需求），通胀的预期可能加速变成现实。当前的学院派经济学家对通胀估计明显不足 2010年全球通胀就会到来，而且迅速蔓延到中国。,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,发达国家“定量放松”已经显著提高了全球狭义货币供应量(M1)增速,迷局3：热钱到底有多少？,热钱卷土重来,我认为凡是不能用FDI和贸易顺差解释的外汇存货变动都可以称之为热钱。因为这里面只有很小一小部分是来源于外汇资产的股利和利息收入。 有人说很多所谓热钱流动其实是中资金融机构的外汇资产跨境流动造成的，不能称之为热钱。我不同意这个说法。谁也没说热钱一定就是外国人的。只要是因为短期套利或者避险而暂
7、时进入的外汇都应该称之为热钱。因为它们无论是谁所有，对经济和资本市场产生的影响是一样的。 热钱进入的渠道很多，有夸大贸易额进入的，有夸大FDI进入的，有夸大境外资产收益率进入的，或者有的干脆就背着现金进来。不一而足。,资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利,热钱卷土重来,解决之道,对付热钱恐怕没有特效药。中国经济强势、人民币看涨、和境外的利息差又放大，这些条件对热钱来说太诱人。 我国外汇储备强大，怕的不是热钱冲击，而是烦在资本项目不开放，钱进来以后出去很费劲。 根本的解决方法只有开放资本项目一途。让资金自由的进出是防止“吃撑着“的最好办法。,热钱和流动性过剩的结果,短期： 资产价格飙升 资金外溢：Q
8、DII, HSI ETF, 等等 中长期： 通胀的实现 宏观调控和紧缩政策,结论：,流动性，通胀，政策退出和资产价格的关系,对末期市场条件和政策组合的梳理：关键在于通胀的情况,初期：经济疲弱，流动性泛滥，资产价格走低； 中期：经济触底，流动性宽松，资产价格飙升（现在）； 末期： 可能性1：经济强势，温和通胀，政策紧缩（主动紧缩），资产价格继续上升； 可能性2：经济弱势，恶性通胀，政策紧缩（被动紧缩），资产价格应声而落； 可能性3：经济弱势，温和通胀，政策中性，资产价格震荡向下。 从目前形势观察，可能性2发生的概率最大。 对资产价格敏感的行业要提前做好充分对冲和风险管理。,The informa
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