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1、中国农村金融改革： 历程、经验、教训,世界银行高级金融专家 王君 Email: jwang3worldbank.org 2007年11月20日 亚太财经与发展中心农村金融培训班,农村金融的概念,什么是“三农”？ 农村 农业 农民 什么是农村金融？ 贷款 存款 支付 保险 租赁 贸易融资（trade credit) 其他,农村金融的需求与供给,需求的多样性 农户 种植 养殖 副业 婚丧嫁娶 治病等 农民工 企业 微型 小型 中型 村镇政府 供给 正规金融机构 民间借贷,农村金融改革历程回顾,农业合作化运动中产生的农信社 成立专业银行 成立政策性银行 对农村金融市场实行保护和限制 实行以低利率、高
2、补贴的农村金融政策 改革农信社 1997年亚洲金融危机之后：恢复其合作制性质 2003-2006：注资；明确所有者；移交省政府（成立省联社） 2007年：新的一轮改革试点开始 小额信贷试点（人民银行主导的） 2006年12月以来：降低农村金融市场准入门槛（银监会主导的） 村镇银行 贷款公司 村级农村金融互助组织 农发行 农业银行 邮政储蓄银行,中国农村金融的现状 Current status of rural finance in China,农业占GDP的比重在大幅度下降 Share of agricultural production in GDP has been on the decl
3、ine 对“三农”的关注表明从旧范式向新范式过渡 Concern over san nong indicates transition from the old to the new paradigm 但是仍然在实行对农业信贷的补贴 However subsidized lending to agriculture continues 农村存贷款利率逐步放宽但仍缺乏足够的灵活性 Rural interest rates have been deregulated to large extent but still insufficient 仍然缺乏扶助性的农村金融监管制度 Absence of
4、 an enabling regulatory regime needed for sustainable rural- and micro-finance 农村金融的基础设施仍然不健全 Continued lack of public infrastructure for rural finance,农村金融的特点：风险大成本高 Characteristics of rural finance,风险大 High risks 季节性波动 Seasonal fluctuations 协方差风险 Covariance risks 规模小并且市场分割 Small size of production
5、 and fragmented markets 缺乏传统的抵押物 Lack of traditional collateral 保险和劳动力市场不配套 Poorly complementary insurance and labor markets 基础设施不健全 Lack of physical and public infrastructure,农村金融的目标,减轻贫困？ 增加农民收入？ 保证农业 稳定县域经济？ 保护农村信用社？ 防止财政风险？ 为农村的企业和农户提供金融服务？,教训之一：误把农村金融当作农业信贷 Lesson one: RF mistaken as agricultur
6、al credit,很多政府把为传统的初级农业提供信贷当作是农村金融 Many governments equated primary agricultural credit to rural finance 因为初级农产品价格往往随着产量的增加而下降，因此农民的收入得不到提高 As prices of primary agricultural products tend to decline with growing supply, farmers income are often suppressed 出于对食品安全和农民福利的考虑，政府往往通过增加补贴的办法试图扩大农业信贷规模 Out
7、of consideration for food safety and welfare of the farmers, governments have a tendency to increase agricultural credit through subsidies,教训之二：扭曲的资金价格导致资源错配 Lesson two: distorted prices lead to misallocation,这种范式的突出特点是实行低利率、补贴贷款和指令性信贷计划 An important feature of this paradigm is to impose regulated l
8、ow interest rates and subsidized and directed lending 由此使得那些能够产生较高回报的经济活动反而得不到融资, 从而导致资源分配的扭曲 Those economic activities with high potential returns are crowded out, resulting in misallocation of resources 实证研究表明政府在农村基础设施、教育、卫生领域的投资实际上更有效率 Empirical evidence is abundant that investment in rural infra
9、structure, education and health generates tremendous higher returns than direct household subsidy,农业信贷补贴与医疗及基础教育融资效益比较 Comparing Agricultural Credit Subsides with Funding for Preventative Health and Basic Education,教训之三：补贴反而造成更大的不公平 Lesson three: subsidy worsens social inequality,补贴的本意是减轻贫困农民的负担 The
10、 motivation behind subsidy is to lessen the burden of poor farmers 然而全世界普遍的现象是低利率贷款往往被那些有权有势的人获得 However it is universally true that subsidized loans are often grabbed by the rich and influential 其结果反而使富者更富，从而加剧了社会的不公平 Consequently the rich becomes richer therefore making the social inequality even
11、worse 指令性贷款和补贴贷款治标不治本，无法从根本上解决金融市场效率低下的问题 Directed, subsidized credit was a poor response to the symptoms without addressing the root cause of poorly performing Rural Financial Markets (RFMs),教训之四：低估农民创造价值的能力 Lesson four: underestimation of farmers ability,很多人认为农民作为弱势群体没有能力承担较高利率 Many believe the fa
12、rmers are unable to bear higher interest rates as they are the weak and vulnerable 从而认为农村小额信贷必须实行低利率 Therefore believing that rural microfinance must be provided at low interest rate 这种认识往往来源于错误地把社会平均利润率等同于边际投资回报率 Such erroneous thinking often stems from mistaking average social returns as marginal
13、investment returns,教训之五: 旧的范式加剧农村金融机构的问题 Lesson five: the old paradigm weakens RFIs,低利率和指令性信贷政策使得农村金融机构没有动力实行商业化经营 Regulated interest rates and directed lending take away incentives for RFIs to assume commercial orientation 因为按照低利率每发放一笔贷款都意味着产生新的亏损 As each new loan implies additional loss at the les
14、s than equilibrium interest rates 只要有政府干预存在这些农村金融机构就有理由指望在发生亏损的时候政府会对其实行监管宽容或救助 As long as government intervention continues these RFIs have reason to expect regulatory forbearance or direct bailout,2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% Interest Rate Paid by RFI on its Borrowed Fun
15、ds 主要假设：股本占总资产的10%，年度平均总资产回报率是20%，管理费用占总资产的6%。 Key Assumptions: equity equals 10 percent of total assets, the average annual yield obtained on total assets is 20 percent, and administrative expenses are six percent of total assets. /,教训之六: 错把较高的市场利率视作高利贷 Lesson six: regarding high interest rates as
16、usurious,传统上有些国家把高于管制的利率视作高利贷 Traditionally some governments regard any interest rates above the regulated rates as usurious 也有的国家法律设定一个标准，超过即视为高利贷 And still others have legislations providing for a threshold for usurious interest rates 然而那种按照一定绝对额设定高利贷界限的做法已经过时了 However it is outdated practice to p
17、inpoint an absolute value as usurious interest rate 实际上只要借款者能够在偿还贷款本息之后仍有利润空间利率就不是高利贷 As long as the borrower is able to generate profit after paying interest and principle the interest rate is not usurious,微型贷款为什么需要高利率 Why lending rate for microloans needs to be high,占1万元贷款平均成本 the percentage cost
18、for a $10,000 loan,0.25%,25%,占100元贷款平均成本 the percentage cost for a $100 loan,如果利率不变银行肯定 不愿意发放小额贷款,教训之七: 政府的预算是有限的因此补贴不是办法 Lesson seven: there is a limit to the state budget,在任何情况下政府的预算都是有限的，因此政府面临两难选择 In any given situation the government capacity to provide subsidy is limited, therefore the governm
19、ent is confronted with a cruel dilemma 也就是说到底是以较高的补贴但是却只能使较少的人受惠 Namely to provide relatively higher subsidy but only to reach fewer rural households 或者以较低甚至是零补贴但是却能使有限的资金惠及更多的目标人群 Or to reach more households with lower or even zero subsidy 没有任何政府能够避开这种选择 No government can escape from this cruel dil
20、emma,问题是政府面临残酷的两难选择 But there is a cruel dilemma,在财政约束条件下每单位贷款 faced with budget constraints, for each unit lent:,或者以较少乃至零补贴使更多的目标人群得到实惠 either benefit more target group with less or zero subsidy,或者以较多的补贴使较少的目标人群得到实惠 or benefit less target group with more subsidy,Urban areas,高收入客户,低收入客户,目前提供的 服务,商业可
21、持续 边界,城市,农村,市场 效率 差距,微型金融的商业可持续边界 Frontier of commercial microfinance,教训之八：政府办农村金融机构很少有成功的 Lesson eight: governments are not good at running rural financial institutions,从国际范围看只有少数国家的国有金融机构取得成功 Worldwide there are only a few countries that have successful state-owned financial institutions 而这些国家往往有较
22、为健全的市场经济和良好的法律环境 And those countries without exception have relatively advanced market economy and conducive legal environment 若想成为成功的金融机构所有者除非政府模仿私人所有者把利润最大化作为首要目标 The government as owner can succeed only if it mimics private owners with profit maximization as the only objective 但是常识告诉我们这对于政府是极为困难的
23、 But common sense has it that it is almost next to impossible for government to do so,教训之九: 过度的监管可能会扼杀农村金融 Lesson nine: overly intrusive regulation could stifle RF,很多国家是先有农村金融（小额信贷）后有监管 In many countries development of rural/micro finance leads regulation 对于那些并不吸收公众存款的农村小额信贷没有必要对其实行审慎监管 It is not ad
24、visable to impose prudential regulation over RFIs that do not take public deposits 即使是这类农村小额信贷也需要以机构为基础才有可能持久发展 However such microfinance needs to be institution-based to be sustainable 这样就需要有扶助性的农村金融监管框架 Thus there is strong need for enabling regulatory framework for rural finance,教训之十: 不当的评价标准导致错误
25、的战略与政策 Lesson ten: inappropriate performance criteria could lead to wrong strategies and policies,多数农村金融机构被大量补贴, 其“利润”通常是大量补贴后的剩余价值 Most rural DFIs are heavily subsidized. Their “profit” is usually a residual value of a substantial subsidy they consume. “投资回报” 其实不是真正的回报 The “return” is no real retur
26、n,中国从国际教训的可借鉴之处 What can China learn from those lessons,增加农村收入和减少贫困的努力必须考虑整个农村产业， 而不仅仅是农民 Rural income generation and poverty alleviation efforts must take into accounts the entire rural sector, not just farmers 如果及时拨付贷款，信贷条件合理，小规模的农户能够、也愿意付适当高的利率 Small-scale farmers are able and willing to pay appr
27、opriately high interest rates if loan disbursement is timely and credit conditions are appropriate,政府的作用 Role of Government,旧角色 OLD 直接干预及管理农业信贷的数量与价格 To directly intervene and administer agricultural credit quantity and price,新角色 NEW 最大限度地减少直接干预和信贷控制, 以创造一个良好的政策环境 To create a favorable policy enviro
28、nment, while minimizing direct intervention,政府的作用：农村金融机构,农业银行 农村信用社 邮政储蓄银行 农业发展银行 村镇银行 小额贷款公司 村级合作金融组织,政府的作用,建立有担保的交易框架 概念：什么可以作为抵押？ 法律： 保护债权人还是债务人？ 如何确立优先规则？ 公示：登记还是备案？ 查询：时间、成本？ 执行：保护债权人还是保护债务人？,政府的作用：如何设计和发放补贴,如何把有限的公共资源用到该用的地方 补贴谁？ 怎样补贴？ 是否要评价效果？ 怎样评价？ 避免挤出民间投资者 避免扭曲市场机制 避免加剧赖帐文化,如何实现业绩的最优化 Opti
29、mizing performance in rural finance,对目标客户群的金融服务 覆盖面大并且具有可持续性 Sustainable financial services that reach the target clients,对目标客户群的金融服务 覆盖面大但是补贴程度也高 Highly subsidized financial services that reach the target Clients,对目标客户群的金融服务 覆盖面小并且补贴程度高 Highly subsidized financial services with low outreach to targ
30、et clients,对目标客户群的金融服务 覆盖面较小但是有可持续性Sustainable financial services with low outreach to the target clients,覆盖面大,覆盖面小,自我持续性强 High Self- Sustainability,自我持续性低 Low Self- Sustainibility,Source: Adapted from Majahan, 1994.,农村金融机构业绩的评价标准 Criteria For Assessing-The Performance of RFIs,主要评价标准,自我持续性,目标客户覆盖面,成
31、份指数: 补贴指数 将补贴与利息收入比较,混合指数: 评价覆盖面与服务质量,补贴举例: 国家承担贷款损失 优惠贷款的利率补贴 资本金的机会成本 准备金豁免,举例: 市场占有率 相对收入水平、服务质量 存款额 贷款额,补贴依赖指数作为一种分析框架 Subsidy Dependence Index as a framework,补贴依赖指数提供了衡量农村金融机构绩效的方法 The SDI provides a methodology to measure the true performance of RFIs 同时也提供了一种分析框架 Meanwhile it is also an analyt
32、ical framework 可以为农村金融改革和发展提供一种新的视角 provding a new perspective in approaching rural finance reform and development,补贴依赖指数 Subsidy Dependence Index (SDI),The SDI measures the percentage increase in the RFI average on-lending interest rate required to compensate for eliminating all subsidies received
33、by the RFI 补贴依赖指数衡量的是，假如取消对农村金融机构补贴，其平均贷款利率增长的百分比 SDI = S / (LP x I) ； SDI = RFIs subsidy dependence index （农村金融机构的补贴依赖指数） LP =Avg. annual outstanding loan portfolio of the RFI （ 农村金融机构年度平均贷款余额） I = Avg. on lending interest rate of the RFI （农村金融机构平均贷款利率）,补贴依赖指数 （续） Subsidy Dependence Index (SDI) (co
34、ntd),S=补贴总额； S=Total subsidies; 市场资金成本与会计成本之差乘以年均借款额 Difference between market and accounting cost of funds multiplied by annual average borrowed funds; 股本的机会成本及 Opportunity cost of equity and; 所有其它补贴 All other subsidies,我们从本部分学到了什么？ What have we learned from this session?,实现商业可持续性是扩大农村金融覆盖面和减少补贴依赖的根本途径 Commercial sustainability is the way to expanded outreach and reduced dependency dependency 扶助性的农村金融监管框架有助于实现上述目标 An enabling regulatory framework helps achieving the goal of commercialization of rural finance 决策者和监管者改变观念是成功的第一步 Change in mindset is the first necessary step,