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1、ACRP Problem No. 10-07-13 Recommended: No Incorporating Strategic Flexibility in Airport Design Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA TRB Aviation Group Aviation Economics & Forecasting Cmte: Conditional support - While the problem statement is somewhat grandious, it may be true that some projects that are
2、 long lived or can be deployed in stages could be better analyzed using a real options approach that would allow managers to leverage an ability to make decisions at intermediate stages. However, it remains important that the investment opportunity be properly matched witht the analysis tool, and th
3、e problem statement is not so clear about that - it seems to suggest real options as a broad replacement to current practice rather than as a new tool that could be usefully applied when valuable. ACRP Screening Panel Although the topic may have some limited benefit to airports, the scope is poorly
4、written. Fiscal Year 2010 Airport Cooperative Research Program RRD 5 Topic:How To Measure Lifecycle Cost FY2010 Focus Area:YES A AC CR RP P Problem Number Problem Number 10-07-13 I. PROBLEM TITLE Incorporating Strategic Flexibility in Airport Design Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) II. RESEARCH PROBL
5、EM STATEMENT Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a process for evaluating the total economic worth of a usable project segment by analyzing initial costs and discounted future costs, such as maintenance, user, reconstruction, rehabilitation, restoring, and operation costs, over the life of the projec
6、t segment. The current state-of-the-art standard for airport design LCCA is the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation under uncertainty using the Monte Carlo simulation to account for the inherent uncertainty in design variables. Assumptions of the NPV approach, however, do not properly represent real
7、-world system design decision making and its findings do not seem to match managers experience. The NPV approach excludes management from making decisions and capitalizing on emerging opportunities, such as using new technologies and materials during the project life cycle to reduce operation/mainte
8、nance costs. These decisions are made in the real world and change the original projects cash flow structure. Limitations of the NPV approach can be overcome by using a different perspective on investment valuation under uncertainty recognized as the real option theory. The real option methodology i
9、s an emerging state-of-the-art capital budgeting paradigm that addresses managerial flexibility and strategic behaviors of decision-makers under dynamic uncertainty. No standard has yet been developed for airport design decision-makers to apply real option approach in their investment valuation proc
10、ess. In this research, we will investigate how the real option approach is appropriate to price various flexible features in airport design. Our work also helps Airport policy makers and designers effectively handle changes in service level demand and users requirements that will occur in future. Th
11、is challenge can be addressed by implementing Flexible Airport Systems that are adaptive in nature, that is, physical airport systems that are capable of changing so as to become suitable to a new service level demand. The intellectual merit of this research lies with its potential contributions to
12、transforming the paradigm of airport systems design LCCA. III. OBJECTIVE The concurrent objectives of this research are: (1) Identify and characterize major flexible options inherent in airport design. (2) Develop real option LCCA models for the most common flexible design alternatives. (3) Develop
13、a customized spreadsheet and technical report for decision makers to incorporate flexibilities in airport design. 1 The final research deliverables consist of: a technical guideline to identify and characterize various flexibilities in airport design and a customized spreadsheet to conduct LCCA to s
14、elect the best flexible airport design configuration considering changes in demand, technologies, and other external factors. IV. RESEARCH PROPOSED The objectives of this research are accomplished by conducting the following tasks: Task I: Identify and characterize flexible design features found in
15、airport projects through interaction/feedback with selected Airport Agencies/Offices. Task II: Develop option-based LCCA models for the most common flexible design features. Task III: Characterize each real option approach in the context of a specific flexible design. Task IV: Develop a general/cust
16、omable valuation spreadsheet for the option-based LCCA. Task V: Develop guidelines and tutorials to disseminate findings of our research. V. ESTIMATE OF THE PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD The estimated total budget amounts to $300,000 for a two-year research period. The total cost covers labor
17、(1 program developer, 2 risk analyst specialists, and 2 supervisors), material/equipment (computers, special software development licenses, accessories) and travel costs (programmed visits to selected Airport Agencies/Offices). VI. URGENCY AND PAYOFF POTENTIAL The intellectual merit of this research
18、 lies with its potential contributions to transforming the paradigm of airport systems design LCCA. The resulting novel real option approach accounts for the variability and inherent uncertainty associated with input variables and respective strategic management flexibilities to mitigate the design
19、risk. This work is one of the first attempts to extensively identify, model, and analyze flexibility in airport design. It will enhance the ability of airport designers, facility managers, and infrastructure policy makers to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their investment decisions wit
20、h the selection of some flexible alternatives that may be mistakenly eliminated or erroneously selected. This problem is urgent as we understand that infrastructure policy makers struggle to raise money to fulfill ever rising demand of the public. Airport designers can use the real option thinking,
21、as well as the information resulting from our valuation approach, to decide on which flexible design features are worth investing in over the airport life cycle, modify design alternatives, and develop more cost-effective strategies. The solution proposed provides most adaptive/flexible design solut
22、ions to cope with hard- to predict future changes in demand and requirements for airport systems. It is expected substantial budget savings for policy makers employing the proposed flexible/adaptable airport design. These savings will be additively amplified if the proposed decision support tool wil
23、l be employed nation-wide. VII. RELATED RESEARCH 2 Related research by the Engineering System Division at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Prof. Richard de Neufville). VIII. PERSON(S) DEVELOPING THE PROBLEM The proposal is presented by the Center of Global Infrastructure Evaluation and Ris
24、k Analysis (G.IN.EV.RA Center) at Columbia University, New York in collaboration with Construction Resource Center at Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta. The GINEVRA centers executive director, Dr. Chiara, will be the principal investigator along with Baabak Ashuri at Georgia Tech. Nicola Chia
25、ra, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Columbia University, Civil Engineering Department, 500 West 120th St. (office # 610), New York, NY, 10027 Office: 212-854-3543 Fax: 212-854-6267 Email: chiaracivil.columbia.edu Web: http:/www.civil.columbia.edu/fac-bios/chiara/faculty.html Baabak Ashuri, Ph.D. Assistan
26、t Professor Building Construction Program Georgia Institute of Technology Address: 280 Ferst Drive, 1st Floor Atlanta, GA 30332-0680 Phone: (404) 385-7608 Fax: (404) 894-1641 E-mail: baabak.ashuricoa.gatech.edu Web: http:/www.coa.gatech.edu/bashuri IX. PROCESS USED TO DEVELOP PROBLEM STATEMENT The proposal was developed within the research team of the GINEVRA Center and Construction Resource Center. X. Date and Submitted by Sincerely, April 10, 2009 Nicola Chiara 3 4 Baabak Ashuri Baabak Ashuri