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1、 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 2013 年伊始：增长改善、涨势 加快：增仓 年伊始：增长改善、涨势 加快：增仓 证券研究报告 重申我们的乐观看法，小幅上调目标点位 对对 2013 年股市主要持乐观看法年股市主要持乐观看法 2013 年的关键词是“增长复苏”。亚洲地区经济增速应会从 6.2%上升至 6.9%， 企业盈利增速在停滞两年后应会于 2013/14 年加快至 13%/14%。这种形势对股市 有利，尤其在估值较低、投资者仓位保守的情况下。我们建议高配中国、印度、 韩国和新加坡市场，并倾向于周期股。 有何变化？美国财政、中国增长和配置策略有何变化？美国财政、中国增长和配置策略 在我们
2、发表 2013 年展望后的五周内，美国达成了财政协议，中国的经济增长和 政策前景得到巩固，我们的调研反馈显示相对于投资者看法而言，其所承担的风 险较低。亚太市场已上涨 6%；尽管就短期而言有些偏高，但尚未完全计入基本 面前景。 目标点位更高、涨势更快、高配周期性股目标点位更高、涨势更快、高配周期性股 我们将 MXAPJ 目标点位上调 4%至 540 点，隐含的股价回报率为 13%、包括股 息在内的总回报为 16%。主要推动因素是目标市盈率从 11.8 倍上调至 12.3 倍， 符合我们自上而下的估值模型，并较历史中值低 0.5 个标准差。我们最新的 3 个 月和 6 个月目标点位为 500 点
3、和 510 点，表明涨势将较为集中在年初。我们建议 高配汽车和资本品板块并低配电信板块。 如何从增长改善中受益如何从增长改善中受益 我们根据增长复苏题材推出投资建议。1.全球周期股 vs 防御股组合 (GSSZMSGC vs. GSSZMSDF)。2. 增长复苏股票组合 (GSSZGWRE)。3. GARP 落后大盘股组 合。4.自上而下选股组合(GSSZTDSP)。5. HSCEI 看涨期权价差。 随着经济加速增长，我们预计亚洲股市将实现十位数中端的回报率随着经济加速增长，我们预计亚洲股市将实现十位数中端的回报率 资料来源： 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究预测 慕天辉慕天辉, CFA +852
4、-2978-1328 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Caesar Maasry +852-2978-7213 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 刘劲津刘劲津, CFA +852-2978-1224 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 鄧啟志鄧啟志 +852-2978-0722 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Sunil Koul +852-2978-0924 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 欧阳汉欧阳汉 +65-6889-1199 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 Ramasubramanian Dharmaraj +91(80)6637-8592 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并
5、且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本 报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。 本报告仅供分发 给高盛机构客户。 高盛集团 Market12m target Target P/E (X) Upside Korea2,4008.818% India7,00014.517% China13,70011.215% Singapore3,60013.512% Malaysia1,80014.57% Taiwan8,3
6、0014.07% Australia5,00012.56% Philippines5,80015.5-1% Overweight Underweight 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 S-10 D-10 M-11 J-11 S-11 D-11 M-12 J-12 S-12 D-12 M-13 J-13 S-13 D-13 MXAPJ level 500 (+5%) 510 (+7%) 540 (+13%) 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 2 More, sooner: Add A strong finish to a good yea
7、r Asian regional markets finished 2012 on a strong note, rising 3% in December and 6% in 4Q. Notwithstanding a challenging 1H, during which the MXAPJ index rose and fell 16%, the region ended 2012 up 18.6%. This price return was in the 63rd percentile of the regions performance over the past 25 year
8、s, and comfortably above the 10.9% average return for this period. Moreover, realized volatility was 14.7%, which was lower than the average of 17.8% and in the 30th percentile of the historical realized volatility range. So 2012 turned out to be a good year, even though it did not feel that way to
9、many investors. In the Appendix, we show an array of exhibits that summarize the regions performance in 2012. The highlights are: ASEAN markets outperformed, again. Although performance flagged late in the year, the ASEAN region registered its seventh consecutive year of outperformance. The Philippi
10、nes, Singapore and Thailand were the top three gainers, with Malaysia and Indonesia bringing up the rear. Healthcare, tech and financials were the sector leaders. Consumer discretionary, energy and materials lagged. By macro slice, asset-sensitive financials led, commodity cyclicals lagged. Defensiv
11、es outperformed cyclicals until 4Q. Defensive and high-yield stocks retained their leadership even while the broad market was rebounding from early-June lows. Rotation back to cyclicals only started late in 4Q. Returns from stock-picking increased significantly. Average stock correlation reached an
12、historical high late in 2011, indicating a very macro-oriented trading environment. By end-2012, correlation reduced close to historical lows, showing that markets were rewarding stock picking to a much greater degree. 2012 was a year of extreme rotation. The main reason why many investors felt 2012
13、 was a tough year is that market rotation was the greatest in 17 years (we measure this by looking at the cross-sectional correlation of monthly market returns). Simply put, markets trended less and were choppier, even though their point-to-point performance may have been good. Having set the stage
14、for 2013, the key question is what lies ahead and how to position for it. Exhibit 1: 2012 saw a pronounced shift from a macro trading to a stock picking environment Exhibit 2: 2012 was difficult for investors because market rotation reached a 17-year extreme Source: MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Re
15、search. 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Avg Stock Correlation (Correlation with Regional Index) “Macro“ Trading “Micro“ Trading -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 De
16、c-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Correlation This months return vs. last months return (across Asian markets, 12-mo avg) Relative to the past 17 years, 2012 was a year of extreme rotation 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 3 Our positive e
17、quity view is driven by a recovery in growth The watchwords for 2013 are growth recovery We laid out our 2013 views in detail in 2013 Outlook: Prospects brighten as growth recovers, Nov 29 2012. In brief, the key theme that drives our views is the recovery in growth that we expect both at the macro
18、and micro levels. Asian regional economic growth should improve to 6.9% from 6.2%. This is the largest improvement to growth that we are forecasting since 2003, with the exception of the 2009 recovery from the GFC, and we are moderately ahead of consensus for 2013 and 2014. We expect most Asian econ
19、omies to improve in 2013, with the exception of Australia and a few ASEAN members which had strong years in 2012. Next year should see a further pick-up in regional growth to 7.4%, so the outlook is one of continuing broad-based improvement for two years. The main drivers of this outlook are: a) a s
20、tabilization and then improvement in DM growth; b) a recovery in Asian domestic demand, facilitated by generally accommodative fiscal and monetary policy; c) stable-to- softer energy prices, which mean that inflationary pressures are unlikely to increase as quickly as they did when Asia bounced back
21、 from the global financial crisis (for our updated Asia macro views and forecasts, see Asia Economics Analyst: Ten Questions for Asia in 2013, Jan 4). Corporate earnings growth should accelerate to 13% and 14% in 2013/14. After two years of stagnation, we expect Asian earnings growth to recover to t
22、he low-to-mid teens level. The key driver for this improvement is a rebound in profit margins, which have been under pressure for several years. The main reasons for this favorable change are: a) operating leverage should start to serve as a tailwind as economic growth picks up; b) input prices are
23、moderating, especially energy costs, which should relieve the increase in cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales. Importantly, our 6.9% net profit margin forecasts for 2014 for MXAPJ constituents (ex-financials) are only at the 40th percentile of the 15-year range, so the potential for upside r
24、evisions to earnings appears good given the macro environment we are projecting. These macro and micro fundamentals, combined with inexpensive valuations and conservative investor positioning (which we discuss later), should make a favorable cocktail for Asian equity markets in 2013. We are overweig
25、ht markets where we see favorable growth deltas and where valuations are attractive: China, India, Korea and Singapore, and are tilted towards cyclicals. 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 4 Exhibit 3: Our expectations for a pick-up in growth are the most positive in 10 years, with the exception of th
26、e rebound from the GFC Source: Consensus Economics, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Exhibit 4: After two years of stagnation, Asian corporate earnings should resume mid-teen growth in 2013 and 2014 Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. GSConsensusGSConsens
27、us Dec-036.4%7.3%6.5%90 bp10 bp Dec-048.2%6.8%6.8%-140 bp-140 bp Dec-057.7%7.6%7.1%-10 bp-60 bp Dec-068.7%8.2%7.6%-50 bp-110 bp Dec-079.5%8.5%8.8%-100 bp-70 bp Dec-087.0%5.5%6.3%-150 bp-70 bp Dec-095.7%8.7%7.6%300 bp190 bp Dec-109.1%8.4%7.8%-70 bp-130 bp Dec-117.4%7.1%7.2%-30 bp-20 bp Dec-126.2%6.9%
28、6.6%70 bp40 bp Year Next year GDP growth (yoy) Asia ex-Japan Change in GDP growth expectations GS current year expected GDP growth (yoy) 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20072008200920102011201220132014 MXAPJ EPS +14% 0%+3% 51% 28% -45% +13% 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 5 Whats changed? In the five weeks
29、 since we published our 2013 views, there have been three main developments that impact on the outlook for Asian equities, all positively. The US has reached a fiscal compromise. The drama of the fiscal cliff negotiations has been well-chronicled. Overall, the last-minute compromise on tax increases
30、 and spending cuts resulted in a package that will entail about a 1.5pp reduction in US GDP growth, similar to the 1.6pp growth drag in our base-case forecasts. Looking ahead, policy issues over the next two months will center on: a) raising the debt limit; b) entitlement reform, and c) further tax
31、reform. Although there still is uncertainty regarding US public finances and the stability of its debt rating, much of the downside risk to US growth (relative to our base-case) has been removed. This clearly is good for Asian equity markets, in terms of the fundamental outlook and investors risk ap
32、petite (see US Daily: .And now on to the debt limit) Jan 2). Chinas growth and policy outlook has firmed. Following stronger than expected production data in October and November, we have raised our 4Q12 GDP forecast for China to 7.8% from 7.6%, bringing full year growth in 2012 to 7.7%. This higher
33、 base also leads to a modest increase in our 2013 GDP growth estimate to 8.2% from 8.1%, and we expect a further moderate improvement to 8.4% in 2014. Furthermore, the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in late December sent encouraging policy signals, notably in positive statements regarding i
34、nfrastructure investment and liquidity, as well as in reinforcing the key policy themes of urbanization and structural reform. Although these are just incremental changes, they increase our confidence in a cyclical economic upturn in 2013/14 after the sharp fall in 2012 from 2011s 9.3% growth. (See
35、Emerging Markets Macro Daily, Dec 17, 2012 and China: Revising up our 4Q2012 GDP forecast to reflect better-than-expected production data, Dec 17, 2012.) Investors are under-risked. Following the publication of our 2013 views in late November, our strategy team had close to 200 separate meetings wit
36、h investors in Asia, Europe and the US. These gave us a timely and comprehensive sense of investors expectations and positioning. The key take-away from these conversations is that investors generally agreed with our positive outlook for 2013 (with the notable exception of domestic investors in Chin
37、a and Korea), but that they were not fully positioned for it. This gap between views and positioning suggests a good deal of potential fund inflow could occur as confidence in the growth outlook builds gradually. Exhibit 5: The shift from bonds to equities could be significant if confidence in the g
38、rowth outlook improves Exhibit 6: Net foreign buying of Asian equities rebounded to US$51bn in 2012 but was only 1% of market cap, much lower than in past years Source: AMG data, Bloomberg, local stock exchanges, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. 0 50 100 150 200 250 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
39、40 50 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Equity FundsBond Funds (RHS) USD bnUSD bn Cumulativenet buy (ex-ETF) since Jan2011 18 20 1 36 30 33 18 -2 -70 61 65 -14 51 -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2000 2001 20
40、02 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Inflow to EM Asia (USD bn) As % of Domestic Market Cap (RHS) 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 6 Our updated views: higher targets, swifter path, more cyclical tilt Dialing up our positive stance Asian markets have clearly reflected some of
41、the recent incremental positive news: since we first framed our 2013 views in late November, the MXAPJ index is up 6%. However, although somewhat stretched in the short-term (the relative strength index stands at 81), we do not think markets have fully discounted the fundamental outlook. The key rea
42、sons are: In conceptual terms, a reduced left-tailed probability (less US and China growth risk) should be reflected in higher valuations. A two-year cycle of earnings downgrades is finally ending but an earnings upgrade cycle has not yet begun. The money flow set-up we previously described could le
43、ad to an overshoot beyond what our fundamental analysis calls for. Valuations are moderate, in absolute terms and relative to historical norms. We raise our MXAPJ 12m target 4% to 540, implying a 13% price return and 16% total return including dividends. The driver is a higher P/E target of 12.3x (p
44、reviously 11.8x), which is in line with our top-down valuation models and still 0.5 SDs below the historical mean. Our refreshed 3m and 6m 500 and 510 targets show a more front-loaded path (9% and 6% above our previous estimates respectively). This conveys our expectation that markets may build on t
45、heir recent performance in 1Q13 before consolidating in 2Q. Sector tilts: upgrade autos and cap goods, downgrade telcos From a broad perspective, we believe the most important sectoral rotation in 2013 will be from defensives to cyclicals. In our Outlook report, we adopted a relatively pro-cyclical
46、stance, but maintained some defensive exposure in Telecom Services and Health Care. Given positive developments on the US political front and in the Chinese growth outlook, we shift our sector views to incorporate a greater cyclical exposure. Specifically, we upgrade Autos and Capital Goods to overw
47、eight, as recent developments have helped the global growth picture. We believe that JPY weakness may reverse now that elections are over and further expectation of structural changes in Japan may subside this would likely benefit Korean Autos, which have underperformed recently. In addition, we dow
48、ngrade Telecom Services to underweight, a view that our valuation models have suggested we adopt for some time now. We had maintained an overweight view to provide a buffer against a market correction, given fiscal cliff and China transition uncertainties (as well as Telecoms high dividend yield). B
49、ut as the outlook brightens, we prefer higher growth sectors to chasing yield. 2013 年 1 月 4 日 亚太 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 7 Exhibit 7: Asian regional markets have the potential to deliver a further mid-to-high teens total return in 2013 Exhibit 8: We look for a more-front loaded return path Exhibit 9: Our sector allocations emphasize cyclicals over defensives Source: Gol