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1、ACRP Problem No. 10-10-15 Recommended: No Airport Evacuation Simulation TRB Aviation Group Aviation Security & Emergency Mgt TF: Do not support. The tool is necessary and would be very useful to airports to avoid live evacuation drills which are very costly and disruptive. Nonetheless this is a prod
2、uct development R&D project and should be addressed by a private interest accordingly. AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM PROBLEM STATEMENT A AC CR RP P Problem Number Problem Number 10-10-15 RRD 5 Topic: Emergencies and Disaster Management FY2010 Focus Area: I. PROBLEM TITLE Airport Evacuation Si
3、mulation II. RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT Large-Scale evacuation involves the movement of people and resources both into and out of a geographic area and buildings under threat of disaster/attack or directly after the incident. Recent advances in computer simulation modeling and visualization techniqu
4、es using agents have enabled better dynamic modeling of evacuation scenarios. In agent modeling, a large number of autonomous agents are programmed with rules and simulated within a physical environment to discover emergent behavior patterns. Chen and Zhan (2008) provide a review of recent research
5、in this area and a short discussion of software packages (e.g. Paramics, VISSIM, CORSIM) for this type of modeling. These packages primarily focus on vehicle modeling. Chen and Zhan (2008) also state that it is “well known that the behavior of individual vehicles plays a crucial role in an emergency
6、 evacuation”. Other agent based software package such as AnyLogic, provide specialized modules for modeling pedestrian flows. A full understanding of evacuation dynamics should integrate multiple modes of transportation (e.g. vehicles (cars, busses, etc), pedestrians, trucking etc.) and better simul
7、ate human behavior in such systems. It is also critical to develop behavior models that can mimic the strain on resources due to the simultaneous use of the network by first responders and other support personnel, including the modeling of the flow of the resources to be used within the response. Th
8、e modeling of airports via simulation has focused on passenger flow into the terminals, through security, and to their gates. This provides for important designs and configurations (especially security flows) to efficiently move passengers to their gates. The focus of security has been on passenger
9、and baggage screening to ensure safe air travel. However, because airports are locations with large concentrations of people, the airport itself and the people in it are likely targets. For example, terrorist may more easily gain access to the terminal area prior to security checkpoints and release
10、a chemical or biological agent, necessitating the evacuation of the entire airport complex. Given the concentrations of people and the trend in airport design for pleasant environments that support shopping, etc., it is important to consider designs that allow for the evacuation of people from the a
11、irport and its surrounding areas (e.g. parking lots, etc.) This reverses the flow of previously designed processes associated with typical modeling efforts and needs to be investigated. Recommendations need to be developed to mitigate the risks to passengers during evacuation events. Airport planner
12、s need better models and tools to assess the risks associated with their emergency evacuation plans. III. OBJECTIVE The objective of this research is to provide simulation-modeling tools for the analysis of large-scale airport evacuation to assess the risks to passengers during the evacuation proces
13、s and the development of subsequent design guidelines and plans related to these types of evacuation scenarios. IV. RESEARCH PROPOSED The proposed research will examine current practice through literature and software reviews as well as surveys and visits of airports for data collection of evacuatio
14、n plans for analysis. Then, the research will perform case study analyses at targeted airports to assess through simulation modeling the challenges associated with applying current tools and well as to provide risk assessments for airports. Then the research will develop design guidelines based on s
15、imulations for adoption by generic airport facilities. Tasks: Phase 1: State of the Art Review (12 months) 1) Literature review of simulation techniques used to model large-scale evacuations involving people and vehicles. 2) State of the art review of commercial and open source software available fo
16、r simulation modeling of large-scale evacuations. 3) Develop expertise with at least 1 commercial tool 2 4) Review of current airport policies, designs, and plans for emergency evacuation. Review relevant literature, survey airport administration, on-site visit and assessment of sample airports. 5)
17、Phase 1 report Tasks: Phase 2: Simulation Modeling (18 months) 1) Develop airport partners and scenarios for risk assessment 2) Collect and analyze data required for simulation modeling 3) Develop prototype simulation models 4) Verify and validate models with airport partners 5) Design experiments a
18、nd scenarios for investigating passenger risks 6) Run and analyze experiments 7) Summarize experimental results, make conclusions and recommendations 8) Phase 2 report Tasks: Phase 3: Design Guideline Investigation (6 months) 1) Develop metrics to asses risks associated with airport layout designs 2
19、) Investigate formulas or meta-models to assess risks and compare with simulation 3) Generate design principles and test designs via simulation 4) Make recommendations 5) Final Project report. V. ESTIMATE OF THE PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD Recommended Funding: $170,000 per year Research Peri
20、od: 3 years VI. URGENCY AND PAYOFF POTENTIAL Airports offer high value targets for terrorists due to the concentration of people within the airport and its vicinity, as well as its modal value within the national transportation grid. It is critical that airport planners have viable building evacuati
21、on plans that mitigate evacuation risks and allow responders efficient access to the areas. The reluctance of airport officials in cooperating and sharing emergency plans and airport designs is a project management risk for the proposed research effort. See reference #3 under Related Research for ot
22、her barriers to the implementation of results. The payoff is that airport design and operating processes can be improved to reduce the risk to passengers during large-scale evacuations. VII. RELATED RESEARCH Numerous efforts are underway to develop methods to better simulate large-scale evacuations
23、via simulation, especially the mimicking of the human behavior of crowds during evacuations. Some additional references may be found in the following: 1) Rossetti, M. D., Pohl, E, Limp, F., and Stout, J. “Applications of GIS and Operations Research Logistics Planning Methods for Arkansas Rural Trans
24、portation Emergency Planning”, Mack- Blackwell Rural Transportation Research Center (http:/www.mackblackwell.org/), MBTC 2088 Final Research Report, July 2008. 2) Chen, X., Zhan, F.B. 2008. “Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation of Urban Evacuation: Relative Effectiveness of Simultaneous and Staged E
25、vacuation Strategies,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol. 59, no. 1, pp 25-53. 3) Stambaugh, H. et al. (2009) “An Airport Guide for Regional Emergency Planning for CBRNE Events”, ACRP Report 12, Airport Cooperative Research Program, Transportation Research Board. 4) Rossetti, M. D. “S
26、imulating Transportation Modes in Large-Scale Evacuation Scenarios”, Department of Homeland Security, Mack-Blackwell Transportation Center (MBTC), National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (NTSCOE) Grant, 2008-2009 VIII. PERSON(S) DEVELOPING THE PROBLEM Manuel D. Rossetti, Ph.D., P.E. As
27、sociate Professor of Industrial Engineering University of Arkansas Department of Industrial Engineering 4207 Bell Engineering Center Fayetteville, AR 72701 Phone: (479) 575-6756 email: rossettiuark.edu 3 www: www.uark.edu/rossetti IX. PROCESS USED TO DEVELOP PROBLEM STATEMENT This problem statement is the product of an individual. X. DATE AND SUBMITTED BY April 10, 2009 submitted by Manuel Rossetti