《ACRP-Problem-No-10-03-08.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ACRP-Problem-No-10-03-08.pdf（5页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、ACRP Problem No. 10-03-08 Recommended: Yes Influence of Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors on Air Travel Demand ACRP Staff Builds upon published ACRP Synthesis 2 Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. TRB Aviation Group Aviation System Planning Cmte: Good topic. Should identify what the results
2、could be used for. Aviation Economics Task 1 Literature review The literature review undertaken for ACRP Synthesis 2 Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting will be expanded and updated, with particular focus on the demographic and socio-economic determinants of air travel demand. Task 2 Identificatio
3、n of data sources on air traveler characteristics Investigate and summarize the availability of data on traveler characteristics from intercept surveys of air passengers and household or business travel surveys undertaken by federal agencies as well as airlines and airports. Particular attention sho
4、uld be given to the extent and level of detail on data on demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as related information such as trip purpose, frequency of travel, travel party size, extent of advance planning and flexibility of travel dates or schedule, etc. Consideration should als
5、o be given to the frequency with which surveys are undertaken and the sample sizes involved. Task 3 Interim report Prepare an interim report documenting the findings of Tasks 1 and 2 and presenting a work plan for the remainder of the project. Submit interim report to the Project Panel for review an
6、d approval of the work plan before commencing subsequent tasks. Task 4 Assemble database of air traveler characteristics in selected markets Select a representative sample of air travel markets, contact relevant survey sponsors to identify willingness to provide survey datasets for analysis, and ent
7、er into agreements as required to make data available for the research and define any restrictions on the subsequent use of the data. Contact the U. S. Department of Commerce for access to and use of their international air traveler survey data collected by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industrie
8、s. Assemble a longitudinal database of air traveler characteristics in the selected markets for which survey data is available. Task 5 Assemble statistical data on air travel in selected markets Assemble a time-series database of air travel activity in the markets selected in Task 3 from airline dat
9、a reported to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Task 6 Data analysis Analyze the data assembled in Tasks 4 and 5 using econometric or other statistical analysis techniques to explore the role of demographic and socio-economic factors on the demand for air travel. Identify key demographic or soc
10、io-economic factors that influence air travel demand in different markets. 2 - 3 - 4/8/09 Task 7 Implementation and further research - Based on the results of the analysis in Task 6, develop an air travel forecasting approach that can account for future changes in the distribution of the values of t
11、hese factors across the population. Identify needs for further research and requirements for additional survey data collection to address issues that could not be resolved with the available data. Task 8 Final report Prepare a draft final report documenting the findings of the research and submit to
12、 the Project Panel for review and comment. Revise report to address Panel concerns and suggestions and submit to ACRP for publication. V. ESTIMATE OF THE PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD It is estimated that the research described in this problem statement would require about 24 months to complet
13、e by a suitably experienced research team, for a required funding level of $400,000. The first three months would be allocated to Tasks 1 and 2. Preparation of the interim report in Task 3 and subsequent discussion with the Project Panel would take two months, with the following year devoted to the
14、assembly of the data in Tasks 4 and 5 and analysis in Task 6. The would leave four months to address implementation aspects and further research in Task 7 and preparation of the draft final report. The final three months would be spent in review of the draft report by the Project Panel and revising
15、the report to respond to the panel comments. VI. URGENCY AND PAYOFF POTENTIAL Current forecasting efforts rely on stable relationships between air passenger demand and broad economic indicators of population, economic activity, personal income, and airline yield. Recent history suggests that this st
16、ability can no longer be taken for granted, and that a better understanding of the effect of changes in other demographic and socio-economic factors will be required to provide reasonable forecasts of future trends in air travel. Future forecasting techniques will need to incorporate a richer set of
17、 causal variables and require an improved understanding of how these factors interact to influence the demand for air travel. Among other benefits from this research will come an improved ability to analyze how certain economic and socio-political shocks would impact air travel in general, and diffe
18、rent classes of air travelers to varying degrees. VII. RELATED RESEARCH The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) of the U.S. Department of Commerce conducts an on-going survey of international air travelers. This data goes back to 1983 and contains much valuable information on traveler dem
19、ographics that can be exploited. Many airlines conduct surveys of their passengers on a routine basis, while airport authorities regularly conduct air passenger surveys. Such data represents a second rich source of information and typically include some demographic and socio-economic information. Ob
20、taining access to these data may be dependent on arriving at agreements on confidentiality between ACRP, the project team and the survey sponsors. A recent study for the Federal Aviation Administration, Implementation of a National Database of Air Passenger Survey Data3 surveyed airport authorities,
21、 state and regional planning agencies, and airport planning consultants to identify how frequently such surveys are undertaken. ACRP Synthesis 2 Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting has identified numerous areas for expanded research. The incorporation of a better understanding of the role of socio
22、-economic and demographic factors on the demand for air travel would greatly assist in improving aviation activity forecasting techniques. The report on ACRP Project 11-02, Task 7, Strategic Process for Developing ACRP Research Problem Statements (ACRP Research Results Digest 5 Current and Emerging
23、Issues Facing the Airport Industry) identified a number of research requirements that would be covered in whole, or in part, by this problem statement; including Airport/Airline Economics and Forecasting, and Changing Demand for Air Service. 3 Gosling, Geoffrey D., and Mark M. Hansen, Implementation
24、 of a National Database of Air Passenger Survey Data, Research Report UCB-ITS-RR-2006-7, National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, December 2006. 3 - 4 - 4/8/09 4 Literature searches have revealed surprisi
25、ng little research on the demographics (age, trip purpose, occupation, income) of air passengers. Similarly, the propensity for making business air trips across different sectors of the economy is not well documented, making it difficult to anticipate the effect of changes in the composition of the
26、economy over time on future levels of air travel, or to understand how regional differences in the structure of the local economy affect air travel at specific airports. ACRP Project 03-04 Guidebook for Airport-User Survey Methodology has identified techniques for improving the collection of air pas
27、senger information, including demographic and socio-economic factors, with the long-term objective of standardizing the types and methods of data collection. However, to fully leverage the findings of such surveys to support improved aviation activity forecasts there needs to be a better understandi
28、ng of what demographic and socio-economic data to collect in future surveys. VIII. PERSON(S) DEVELOPING THE PROBLEM STATEMEMT This problem statement has been developed by: J. Paul Cripwell, Rates Analyst, NAVCANADA , 77 Metcalfe St, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1P 5L6 Tel: (613)-563-5876; fax: (613)-56
29、3-7994; email: cripwepnavcanada.ca Geoffrey Gosling, Principal, Aviation System Consulting, LLC, 805 Colusa Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94707; tel: (510) 528-8741; fax: (510) 528-8745; e-mail: . IX. PROCESS USED TO DEVELOP PROBLEM STATEMENT The problem statement was initiated by the authors with advice and
30、 support from Transport Canada, Aviation Forecasting. A draft of the problem statement was reviewed by members of the TRB Committees on Aviation System Planning and Aviation Economics and Forecasting, and the American Society of Civil Engineers Airport Planning and Operations Committee. Suggestions and comments were incorporated into the problem statement. X. DATE AND SUBMITTED BY Date of submission: April 10, 2009. Submitted by: J. Paul Cripwell, Rates Analyst, NavCanada