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1、Q1 2012 oil but production from Latin America, the UK North Sea and Emerging Europe has also disappointed. Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI In the UK, rising investment levels have not been able to stem a faster-than-expected decline in produ
2、ction, which fell below 1mn b/d in June 2011 for only the second time in 30 years. The effect has been magnified as the market has looked to the North Seas light sweet crude to replace lost light sweet volumes from Libya. In Azerbaijan, extended maintenance at BPs ACG oil field is likely to cause pr
3、oduction to disappoint by around 100,000b/d relative to expected volumes. Moreover, Azeri authorities have warned that production is likely to fall lower into 2012 and production has also been worse than expected in Latin America. Disappointing output volumes in Brazil and Venezuela have led us to l
4、ower our 2011 output target for the region by around 200,000b/d. Supply tightness is expected to ease going into 2012, but the market is not expected to produce a surplus until 2013. We forecast a supply deficit of around 860,000b/d, which will persist into 2012, with the market finally moving back
5、into surplus in 2013. Libya, however, remains a wildcard. Our forecast is based on the assumption that limited oil supplies of around 300,000b/d primarily from the Messla and Sarir fields in the southeast of the country will come back onstream before the end of 2011. The next stage of bringing produ
6、ction back onstream will likely see flows restart from the offshore Bouri field and the Eni-operated El Sharara field in the Murzuk Basin near the Algerian border. If those fields are successfully brought back onstream, we see potential output rising to as much as 1mn b/d by the end of 2012. More ch
7、allenging will be restarting production at Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI Japan Oil Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI Oil And Gas Reserves There are no meaningful volumes of oil or gas reserves in Japan. The estimated 44mn bbl of proven
8、 oil reserves (OGJ December 2010) is expected to diminish to around 30mn by the end of the forecast period. Japans insignificant 20bcm of gas deposits are expected to be broadly stable thanks to minimal production. Oil Supply And Demand Japans crude oil imports hit 3.73mn b/d in August 2011, up 1.2%
9、 year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures released by the Ministry of Finance. Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI Japans oil demand in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.42mn b/d, down slightly on the previous year. Oil consumption has been undermin
10、ed by sluggish economic activity, fuel efficiency improvements and inter- fuel substitution in favour of gas and nuclear power. Our data indicates only slightly lower consumption in 2011, at around 4.41mn b/d, which is higher than earlier forecasts as a result of the earthquake and subsequent tsunam
11、i that struck Japan in March 2011. This has resulted in reduced nuclear generation and an upturn in oil- and gas-fired power generation to compensate. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.46mn b/d. Gas Supply And Demand Natural gas demand has been rising relatively quickly, with Japan
12、already the worlds biggest LNG importer, while Tokyo Gas, Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), Toho Gas, Osaka Gas and Kyushu Electric Power are buying long-term gas from the Russian Sakhalin project. Many of Japans urban areas are not served by a natural gas distribution system. Japan Oil Source: Historic
13、al, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI The countrys nuclear sector, which accounted for 13% of primary energy demand in 2009, has been virtually shut down following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that struck Japan on March 11 2011. The country will turn to other fuels
14、, notably oil, coal and gas in the form of imported LNG to fill this gap. We see LNG in particular playing a crucial role, and rising import requirements have the potential to reshape the Pacific Basin LNG market. We have upawardly revised our gas imports projections for 2011, 2012 and 2013 followin
15、g the earthquake and tsunami. We expect gas consumption to have risen to 106.7bcm in 2011 and anticipate this will rise steadily towards 112bcm by 2015/16 largely in the form of imported LNG. LNG Japan is the largest LNG importer in the world. It has 23 import terminals. Most LNG terminals are locat
16、ed around the main population centres of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya. Many of Japans LNG facilities are owned by local power generation companies that operate gas-fired power stations, often in partnership with gas distribution companies. These same companies own much of Japans LNG tanker fleet. In Febr
17、uary 2009, Tokyo Gas announced that it was considering building a new LNG receiving terminal in Hitachi, north east of Tokyo, by 2017-2018. Japan Oil coal and oil will have a role to play as well, but if demand follows patterns set in the wake of the last major earthquake in 2007, we do see potentia
18、l for gas to account for as much as half of lost output, implying an increase in 2011. LNG Supply Deals Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia were the three biggest suppliers of LNG to Japan in 2009, according to Cedigaz data, followed by Qatar, the UAE, Russia and Oman. In 2009-2010, Japan signed a num
19、ber of new supply deals, mainly with Australian gas producers, but also with producers in Russia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Alaska. Japanese gas distributor Osaka Gas and Royal Dutch Shell struck a supply deal in July 2010 that will see Osaka Gas buy up to 800,000tpa for 25 years starting in A
20、pril 2012. Gas will be sourced from Shells global LNG portfolio but will include supplies from the planned Prelude FLNG project as well as the Japan Oil na = not available/applicable; *FY2009-10, ending on March 31 2010. Source: Company data Japan Oil includes Esso, Mobil, TonenGeneral Sekiyu and Ky
21、gnus Sekiyu; na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data FY10 (retail outlet data as of June 2010), BMI Japan Oil Upstream Oil Downstream Oil Both the upstream and downstream are composed of Risks/Rewards sub-ratings, which themselves comprise industry-specific and broader country risk compo
22、nents; Rewards: Evaluates the sectors size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry and state characteristics that may inhibit its development; Risks: Evaluates both industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the states political and economic profile that call into quest
23、ion the likelihood of expected returns being realised over the assessed time period. Japan Oil Japan Oil ? International quotas, guidelines and projections such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA. Energy consumption A mixture of methods are used to generate demand forecasts, applied as appropriate to each indivi
24、dual country: ? Underlying economic (GDP) growth for individual countries/regions, sourced from BMI published estimates. Historic relationships between GDP growth and energy demand growth at an individual country are analysed and used as the basis for predicting levels of consumption; ? Government p
25、rojections for oil, gas and electricity demand; ? Third-party agency projections for regional demand, such as IEA, EIA, OPEC; ? Extrapolation of capacity expansion forecasts based on company- or state-specific investment levels. Cross checks Whenever possible, we compare government and/or third part
26、y agency projections with the declared spending and capacity expansion plans of the companies operating in each individual country. Where there are discrepancies, we use company-specific data as physical spending patterns to ultimately determine capacity and supply capability. Similarly, we compare
27、capacity expansion plans and demand projections to check the energy balance of each country. Where the data suggest imports or exports, we check that necessary capacity exists or that the required investment in infrastructure is taking place. Sources Sources include those international bodies mentioned above such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA, as well as local energy ministries, official company information, and international and national news, and international and national news agencies.