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1、Q1 2012 oil but production from Latin America, the UK North Sea and Emerging Europe has also disappointed. China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI In the UK, rising investment levels have not been able to stem a faster-than-expected decline in produ
2、ction, which fell below 1mn b/d in June 2011 for only the second time in 30 years. The effect has been magnified as the market has looked to the North Seas light sweet crude to replace lost light sweet volumes from Libya. In Azerbaijan, extended maintenance at BPs ACG oil field is likely to cause pr
3、oduction to disappoint by around 100,000b/d relative to expected volumes. Moreover, Azeri authorities have warned that production is likely to fall lower into 2012 and production has also been worse than expected in Latin America. Disappointing output volumes in Brazil and Venezuela have led us to l
4、ower our 2011 output target for the region by around 200,000b/d. Supply tightness is expected to ease going into 2012, but the market is not expected to produce a surplus until 2013. We forecast a supply deficit of around 860,000b/d, which will persist into 2012, with the market finally moving back
5、into surplus in 2013. Libya, however, remains a wildcard. Our forecast is based on the assumption that limited oil supplies of around 300,000b/d primarily from the Messla and Sarir fields in the southeast of the country will come back onstream before the end of 2011. The next stage of bringing produ
6、ction back onstream will likely see flows restart from the offshore Bouri field and the Eni-operated El Sharara field in the Murzuk Basin near the Algerian border. If those fields are successfully brought back onstream, we see potential output rising to as much as 1mn b/d by the end of 2012. More ch
7、allenging will be restarting production at China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI China Oil Source: Historical, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2010; Forecast, BMI China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimate
8、s/Forecasts, BMI Chinas oil production growth has come on the back of rapidly rising output from nine giant fields which accounted for some 80% of the countrys total production in 2009. Five of these fields are now declining, in particular the flagship Daqing and Shengli oil fields. Production growt
9、h in the future will be driven by the remaining four fields at which production is still expanding or steady: Changqing, Xinjiang, Dagang and Tarim. Tarim: CNPC has said it expects production from the Tarim oil field to reach 1mn boe/d in 2020, up from 407,854boe/d in 2008. CNPC said it expected bot
10、h oil and gas output at the field, which is located in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of western China, to increase from its current level. In 2009 the Tarim field, which is Chinas fourth largest oil producer and largest gas producing field, produced nearly 111,300b/d of oil and 18.1bcm of gas
11、, according to CNPC. Daqing: Production from the Daqing oil field in Heilongjiang province was 800,000b/d in 2010. The field also produced 3bcm of natural gas. PetroChina believes it can extract a further 7bn bbl of oil from the Daqing field with advanced technology, thereby extending the life of th
12、e field and boosting domestic oil output. Parent company CNPC said that the so-called well fracturing or fraccing method could be China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI The Puguang field, which was discovered in 2003, contains proven reserves of 356
13、bcm and is Sinopecs largest gas project and the focus of its operations in Sichuan. The field came onstream on October 10 2009 and began full operations at the beginning of 2010. Although annual production capacity at Puguang is eventually expected to reach 12bcm, Sinopec said in October 2009 that p
14、roduction in 2011 would be 8bcm. Shell and CNPC have signed an agreement to jointly develop tight gas deposits in Chinas Sichuan Province, according to a March 2010 Shell press release. The companies have submitted a 30-year PSA to the Chinese government for approval. Under the contract, the compani
15、es will first appraise and then potentially develop tight gas reservoirs in 4,000sq km of the Jinqui Block, located in central Sichuan province. Although details of the agreement were not included in Shells press release, Reuters quoted an unnamed source as saying that Shell would be making the tota
16、l investment and would be taking a stake of more than 50% in the project. The same source said that it would be at least two-to-three years before the project came onstream, at which time production is expected to be about 23bcm. Sinopec aims to produce approximately 6bcm of natural gas per annum fr
17、om its Yuanba gas field in south-western Sichuan in China by end-2015. Several exploration wells have been drilled by Sinopec on the field since 2009. China Oil e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI China Oil na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data, 2009. China Oil thi
18、s was confirmed more recently by the Nigerian upstream acquisition. CNOOC is also developing petrochemicals and refining interests through IOC JVs, which will eventually change the shape of the business. SWOT Analysis Strengths: Leading offshore oil production position Growing reserves and output Ri
19、sing international upstream exposure High efficiency and low costs Weaknesses: Limited upside potential from Chinese fields Risk of overpayment for non-China assets Opportunities: International diversification Downstream oil and gas diversification Strong domestic energy demand growth Threats: Risin
20、g investment requirement Competition in Chinas offshore segment Lower returns from downstream investments Changes in national energy policy Address ? CNOOC Limited Offshore Petroleum Plaza No 6, Dongzhimenwai Xiaojie DongCheng District Beijing, 100027 China ? Tel: +86 (10) 8452 1646 ? Fax: +86 (10)
21、8452 1441 ? Web: Financial Statistics Sales ? CNY183.1bn (2010) ? CNY105.2bn (2009) ? CNY126.0bn (2008) ? CNY90.7bn (2007) Net income ? CNY54.4bn (2010) ? CNY29.5bn (2009) ? CNY44.4bn (2008) ? CNY31.3bn (2007) Operating Statistics ? Year established: 1982 ? Total proven oil reserves: 1.89mn bbl (20
22、10e) Net oil production: ? 721,644b/d (2010) ? 509,696b/d (2009) ? 422,068 b/d (2008) Net gas production: ? 10.75bcm (2010) ? 6.75bcm (2009) ? 6.42bcm (2008) China Oil Upstream Oil Downstream Oil Both the upstream and downstream are composed of Risks/Rewards sub-ratings, which themselves comprise in
23、dustry-specific and broader country risk components; Rewards: Evaluates the sectors size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry and state characteristics that may inhibit its development; Risks: Evaluates both industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the states polit
24、ical and economic profile that call into question the likelihood of expected returns being realised over the assessed time period. China Oil China Oil ? International quotas, guidelines and projections such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA. Energy consumption A mixture of methods are used to generate demand fo
25、recasts, applied as appropriate to each individual country: ? Underlying economic (GDP) growth for individual countries/regions, sourced from BMI published estimates. Historic relationships between GDP growth and energy demand growth at an individual country are analysed and used as the basis for pr
26、edicting levels of consumption; ? Government projections for oil, gas and electricity demand; ? Third-party agency projections for regional demand, such as IEA, EIA, OPEC; ? Extrapolation of capacity expansion forecasts based on company- or state-specific investment levels. Cross checks Whenever pos
27、sible, we compare government and/or third party agency projections with the declared spending and capacity expansion plans of the companies operating in each individual country. Where there are discrepancies, we use company-specific data as physical spending patterns to ultimately determine capacity
28、 and supply capability. Similarly, we compare capacity expansion plans and demand projections to check the energy balance of each country. Where the data suggest imports or exports, we check that necessary capacity exists or that the required investment in infrastructure is taking place. Sources Sources include those international bodies mentioned above such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA, as well as local energy ministries, official company information, and international and national news, and international and national news agencies.