BMI Thailand Power Report Q4 2010.pdf

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1、Q4 2010 power report ISSN 1754-4068 published by Business Monitor International Ltd. tHAILAND INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Mon

2、itor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any mea

3、ns graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources

4、 believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies o

5、r omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. THAILAND POWER REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 5- AND 10

6、-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 AND 2019 Part of BMIs Industry Report BMI In the 71 countries covered by BMIs energy service, primary energy demand (PED) is set to increase from an estimated 10,817mn toe in 2010 to 12,362mn toe by 2014. The 2009 estimate of global PED published in the BP Statistical Review

7、of World Energy (June 2010) was 11,164mn toe, which reflects its broader coverage than the BMI universe. According to BPs report, oil accounted for 34.8% of 2009 energy demand, followed by coal with 29.4% and gas with 23.8%; nuclear energys share was just 5.5%, behind hydro-electric power with 6.6%.

8、 BMIs forecasts suggest that, in spite of demand growth, gas will account for just 23.9% of PED in 2014, with much of the stable market share reflecting power generation Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 usage. In spite of environmental pressure, we see coals s

9、hare of overall demand edging higher to 31.5% by the end of the forecast period. Our estimates point to a 5.3% market share for nuclear power by 2014, with hydro-electricity remaining marginally ahead with an estimated 6.1% share of the energy market. BMIs forecasts for electricity generation sugges

10、t an increase from an estimated 19,301TWh in 2010 to 21,980TWh in 2014 (+17.4%), based on a universe of 71 countries. According to the BP Statistical Review (June 2010), world electricity generation in 2009 was 20,094TWh. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is a division of the US Dep

11、artment of Energy, predicts a 16.5% rise in global net power generation from 18,783TWh in 2007 to 21,899TWh by 2015. Thermal power generation will continue to dominate (EIA forecast: 13,858TWh by 2014), although gas will gain market share at the expense of oil, while coal will hold its ground. Our p

12、rojections for thermal power generation suggest a generation market share of 67.4% in 2014, down slightly from the estimated 2010 level of 68.5%. The EIAs long-term energy outlook predicts a 63.3% market share for thermal power generation in 2015, with coal having 40.3%, gas holding a 19.1% market s

13、hare and oil claiming just 3.9% of overall generation. According, to the EIA, nuclear power will account for 14.1% of electricity generation by 2015, with its market share falling steadily during the period. BMIs own data suggest a market share of around 13.3% for nuclear in 2014, in spite of signs

14、that this form of power generation is gaining fresh support as countries struggle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EIA now breaks out hydro-electric power from the renewables segment, and generating market share is predicted to reach 16.8% by 2015. BMIs data point to a hydro-power market shar

15、e of 15.4% by 2014. EIA forecasts suggest a 2015 market share for non-hydro renewables of 5.8% Asia Pacific Region The dominant regional electricity generator and consumer in the Asia Pacific region is China, which has a high dependence on imports to fuel its power stations. India and South Korea ar

16、e also significant regional players, also increasingly reliant on imported fuels to meet their power needs. Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2010) show regional electricity generation of 7,512TWh in 2009, of which China, Japan, India and South Korea accounted for 82%. BMIs e

17、stimates for 2010 suggest regional generation of 7,698TWh. Thailands market share in 2010 is an estimated 1.96%. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% between 2010 and 2014. By the end of the forecast period we expect Thailand to acco

18、unt for 1.87% of regional power generation. The EIA predicts that installed generating capacity for the OECD Pacific region will decrease from 415GW in 2007 to 391GW by 2015, and then rise to 401GW by 2020. Net electricity generation for the Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor Internation

19、al Ltd Page 11 region is forecasted to rise from 1,747TWh in 2007 to 1,843TWh by 2015, then to 1,976TWh by 2020. For non-OECD Asia, capacity is to increase from 1,089GW in 2007 to 1,471GW by 2015, and then to 1,766GW by 2020. Power generation is tipped to rise from 4,779TWh to 6,789TWH by 2015, incr

20、easing further to 8,607TWh by 2020. Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) Country 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 250.9 257.7 251.0 253.5 256.0 261.1 266.4 270.4 Cambodia 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.8 China 3,281.6 3,494.5 3,725.1 3,948.6 4,193.5 4,466.0 4,75

21、6.3 4,994.1 Hong Kong 38.9 38.0 38.7 39.0 39.5 40.3 41.7 43.2 India 797.9 824.5 869.8 908.9 958.9 1,006.9 1,052.2 1,094.3 Indonesia 142.4 149.4 151.7 160.0 169.6 177.3 184.4 193.6 Japan 1,180.1 1,183.7 1,115.1 1,120.7 1,137.5 1,151.1 1,162.6 1,185.9 Malaysia 105.0 106.4 106.9 111.0 117.7 121.0 127.1

22、 133.4 Pakistan 98.8 92.5 93.1 95.9 99.2 101.7 104.8 107.9 Philippines 59.6 60.8 61.4 64.2 68.3 71.8 75.3 78.7 Singapore 41.1 41.7 41.8 44.0 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.0 South Korea 426.6 446.7 455.9 458.0 461.0 465.0 472.0 479.1 Sri Lanka 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.2 Taiwan 242.7 237.7 229.7 235.0

23、 243.2 251.7 261.8 271.0 Thailand 142.5 145.4 145.9 151.0 155.5 161.8 167.4 172.5 Vietnam 69.5 79.2 85.6 94.1 104.5 116.0 127.6 139.1 BMI universe 6,888.9 7,170.4 7,384.5 7,697.8 8,065.3 8,455.7 8,867.2 9,234.0 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Ener

24、gy, June 2010; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 In 2010, thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a

25、17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Thailands thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 138TWh, or 2.25% of the regional total. By 2014, the

26、 country is expected to account for 2.12% of regional thermal generation. Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) Country 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 236.6 245.9 239.5 237.6 240.0 244.6 249.4 253.4 Cambodia 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.1 China 2,734.

27、2 2,840.9 3,039.4 3,233.6 3,423.1 3,648.7 3,878.4 4,060.1 Hong Kong 38.9 38.0 38.7 39.0 39.5 40.3 41.7 43.2 India 649.1 677.2 723.0 737.3 761.3 787.6 810.0 834.0 Indonesia 131.1 137.9 139.6 147.0 156.6 163.3 170.4 178.6 Japan 826.5 857.6 766.7 764.7 773.4 774.8 775.9 784.6 Malaysia 94.8 98.5 97.5 99

28、.5 104.0 106.5 109.5 113.5 Pakistan 63.8 64.6 62.5 64.2 63.5 64.0 65.0 65.5 Philippines 51.0 51.0 51.7 54.2 57.8 61.0 64.1 67.2 Singapore 41.1 41.7 41.8 44.0 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.0 South Korea 280.1 292.6 299.8 325.0 325.8 325.8 317.0 310.0 Sri Lanka 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 Taiwan 198.0 192.8 1

29、84.5 186.6 191.2 196.2 202.2 207.1 Thailand 131.1 133.0 134.0 138.0 141.0 146.0 149.5 153.0 Vietnam 39.6 47.0 49.8 54.5 61.1 71.3 77.0 84.5 BMI universe 5,523.1 5,725.7 5,875.9 6,133.2 6,392.6 6,686.9 6,969.3 7,216.3 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of Worl

30、d Energy, June 2010; BMI; Forecasts: BMI BMI estimates suggest that Asia Pacific hydro-electric power generation will have amounted to 984TWh in 2010, or 12.8% of regional electricity generation. By the end of the forecast period, we see hydro- power having 13.3% of the electricity market, with gene

31、ration at 1,226TWh. Thailands share of 2010 hydro generation is an estimated 0.74%, which we expect to rise to 0.82% by 2014. Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 In terms of PED, according to BP data in 2009 the Asia Pacific region consumed 4,147mn toe. The BMI e

32、stimate for 2010 is 4,341mn toe. The regional preference is for coal, which accounted for 51.9% of 2009 regional PED. Next in line is oil, with a 29.1% market share. Gas takes a 10.8% share, with nuclear accounting for 3.0% and hydro-electric energy representing 5.2%. Oil is the dominant fuel in Tha

33、iland, accounting for an estimated 44.9% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by gas at 36.4%, coal at 14.7% and hydro-electricity with a 1.7% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Thailands

34、 estimated 2010 market share of 2.28% is set to fall to 2.20% by 2014. Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) Country 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 122.3 119.5 119.2 123.4 126.5 129.6 134.2 136.9 Cambodia 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.4 China 1,864.4 2

35、,007.4 2,177.0 2,320.7 2,476.2 2,637.1 2,800.6 2,926.7 Hong Kong 25.5 23.8 23.9 24.9 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.8 India 411.0 441.1 468.9 489.0 513.5 546.8 574.2 605.8 Indonesia 119.4 124.7 128.2 134.0 140.7 146.3 149.2 155.2 Japan 515.9 508.7 463.9 493.0 487.0 490.0 490.0 495.0 Malaysia 60.3 59.0 55.7 56.8

36、58.0 59.5 61.3 63.1 Pakistan 65.1 64.8 65.8 67.1 69.8 73.3 76.6 80.8 Philippines 24.7 24.4 24.2 25.4 26.7 27.9 31.5 33.1 Singapore 55.1 58.7 60.8 62.0 63.9 65.8 69.7 73.9 South Korea 232.3 236.1 237.5 238.0 241.0 244.0 250.0 254.5 Sri Lanka 11.5 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.5 17.4 19.0 21.0 Taiwan 115.1 109.2

37、105.7 109.4 112.7 116.1 119.3 122.3 Thailand 92.9 94.1 95.1 98.9 102.2 106.3 110.5 115.0 Vietnam 55.8 65.8 70.5 77.5 88.0 97.7 106.0 115.5 BMI universe 3,776.4 3,956.0 4,116.0 4,341.3 4,554.6 4,792.2 5,027.9 5,235.9 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World

38、 Energy, June 2010; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 Thanks to Indonesia, Australia and Malaysia, the Asia Pacific region is significant as both a supplier and a consumer of natural gas. It is a major and growing feedstock for power generat

39、ion. In 2009 the region consumed 497bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas (BP data), and according to BMI estimates, demand in 2010 was 488bcm. By 2014 we expect the region to be consuming 611bcm of gas. Thailand is expected to account for 7.77% of regional gas consumption by 2014, importing an estimated 12.

40、5bcm of gas. The Asia Pacific region is a net importer of gas, due to demand from Japan, South Korea, India and China. In 2010 the region will have imported an estimated 69bcm, and could be importing 105bcm of gas in 2014. Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) Country 2007 2008 2009 2

41、010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 25.7 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.8 27.6 29.5 30.3 Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 China 69.5 81.3 88.7 97.6 101.0 110.0 118.3 130.0 Hong Kong 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 India 40.1 41.3 51.9 55.0 67.2 76.3 85.5 94.6 Indonesia 31.3 33.3 36.6 38.1 39.6 41.4 42

42、.7 45.2 Japan 90.2 93.7 87.4 88.7 90.5 92.3 94.1 95.6 Malaysia 33.0 33.6 31.5 32.0 32.0 32.5 33.3 34.1 Pakistan 36.5 37.5 37.9 38.0 39.0 41.0 42.0 43.5 Philippines 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.3 Singapore 8.6 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.7 South Korea 34.7 35.7 33.8 34.5 35.5 36.6 37.7 38.4 Sri L

43、anka 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taiwan 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 Thailand 35.4 37.4 39.2 40.0 42.0 43.5 45.2 47.5 Vietnam 7.1 7.9 8.0 9.1 10.0 11.7 14.0 16.0 BMI universe 429.2 453.8 467.6 487.6 513.3 543.9 575.1 610.7 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Stati

44、stical Review of World Energy, June 2010; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Regional coal consumption for 2009 totalled 2,152mn toe according to the latest BP review, which represents around 3,228mn tonnes of the fuel. BMI data suggest 2010

45、demand of an estimated 2,256mn toe will rise to 2,710mn toe by 2014, representing 4,065mn tonnes of coal (+20.1% in 2010-2014). Thailands estimated share of regional coal consumption is expected to be 0.66% by the end of the forecast period. Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) C

46、ountry 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 54.2 51.4 50.8 54.5 55.0 56.0 56.4 57.0 Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 China 1,313.6 1,406.1 1,537.4 1,637.3 1,752.0 1,865.8 1,977.8 2,050.0 Hong Kong 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.3 India 210.3 230.9 245.8 250.0 252.0 257.0 260

47、.0 268.0 Indonesia 28.4 30.2 30.5 31.4 33.6 33.6 33.6 35.0 Japan 125.3 128.7 108.8 120.0 120.0 118.0 115.0 115.0 Malaysia 7.1 5.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 Pakistan 5.1 5.3 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.6 7.7 Philippines 5.9 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.5 8.3 9.2 9.2 Singapore na na na na na na na 2.0 South Korea 59.7 66.1 68.6

48、 73.7 74.0 74.0 74.0 73.7 Sri Lanka 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taiwan 41.8 40.2 38.7 42.0 43.0 43.8 44.7 45.0 Thailand 14.1 15.3 14.1 14.6 15.0 16.0 17.2 17.9 Vietnam 9.9 8.5 8.5 8.7 10.1 11.6 12.5 14.1 BMI universe 1,883.0 2,001.8 2,126.0 2,256.0 2,379.9 2,504.5 2,622.0 2,709.9 e/f = BMI estim

49、ate/forecast; na = not available. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2010; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Thailand Power Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 Nuclear energy demand, put at 543TWh in 2010 by BMI, accounted for 7.1% of the Asia Pacific power market. By 2014 BMI sees nuclear consumption reaching 719TWh (7.8% market share), representing 2010-2014 growth of 32.5%. There is not the same enthusiasm in the region for nuclear