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1、BRITISH STANDARD BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelines ICS 17.160 ? Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI BS ISO 13381-1:2004 This British Standard was published
2、 under the authority of the Standards Policy and Strategy Committee on 31 July 2006 BSI 2006 ISBN 0 580 49027 0 National foreword This British Standard reproduces verbatim ISO 13381-1:2004 and implements it as the UK national standard. The UK participation in its preparation was entrusted by Technic
3、al Committee GME/21, Mechanical vibration, shock and condition monitoring, to Subcommittee GME/21/7, Condition monitoring, which has the responsibility to: A list of organizations represented on this subcommittee can be obtained on request to its secretary. Cross-references The British Standards whi
4、ch implement international publications referred to in this document may be found in the BSI Catalogue under the section entitled “International Standards Correspondence Index”, or by using the “Search” facility of the BSI Electronic Catalogue or of British Standards Online. This publication does no
5、t purport to include all the necessary provisions of a contract. Users are responsible for its correct application. Compliance with a British Standard does not of itself confer immunity from legal obligations. aid enquirers to understand the text; present to the responsible international/European co
6、mmittee any enquiries on the interpretation, or proposals for change, and keep UK interests informed; monitor related international and European developments and promulgate them in the UK. Summary of pages This document comprises a front cover, an inside front cover, the ISO title page, pages ii to
7、v, a blank page, pages 1 to 20, an inside back cover and a back cover. The BSI copyright notice displayed in this document indicates when the document was last issued. Amendments issued since publication Amd. No. DateComments Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00
8、2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI Reference number ISO 13381-1:2004(E) INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13381-1 First edition 2004-11-01 Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelines Surveillance et diagnostic des machines Pronostic Partie 1: Lignes directrices gnr
9、ales BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI ii Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI iii Contents Page Forewordiv Introduction v 1 Scope1 2 Nor
10、mative references .1 3 Terms and definitions.1 4 Pre-requisite data required 2 5 Prognosis concepts3 5.1 Basic concepts3 5.2 Influence factors .5 5.3 Setting alert, alarm and trip (shut-down) limits .6 5.4 Multiple parameter analysis.8 5.5 Initiation criteria 10 5.6 Prognosis of failure mode initiat
11、ion11 6 Failure and deterioration models used for prognostics .12 6.1 Modelling concepts for failure mode behaviour12 6.2 Modelling types.13 7 Generic prognosis process13 7.1 Prognosis confidence levels .13 7.2 Prognosis process13 8 Prognosis report .15 Annex A (normative) Condition monitoring flowc
12、hart .16 Annex B (normative) Example of the determination of the confidence level of a prognosis.17 Annex C (informative) Failure modelling techniques .18 Bibliography .20 BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI i
13、v Foreword ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a
14、 technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matte
15、rs of electrotechnical standardization. International Standards are drafted in accordance with the rules given in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. The main task of technical committees is to prepare International Standards. Draft International Standards adopted by the technical committees are circula
16、ted to the member bodies for voting. Publication as an International Standard requires approval by at least 75 % of the member bodies casting a vote. Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsibl
17、e for identifying any or all such patent rights. ISO 13381-1 was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 108, Mechanical vibration and shock, Subcommittee SC 5, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines. ISO 13381 consists of the following parts, under the general title Condition monitoring an
18、d diagnostics of machines Prognostics: Part 1: General guidelines Future parts are under preparation and are intended to outline modelling methods and techniques applicable to prognostics. BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolle
19、d Copy, (c) BSI v Introduction The complete process of machine condition monitoring consists of five distinct phases, as follows: detection of problems (deviations from normal conditions); diagnosis of the faults and their causes; prognosis of future fault progression; recommendation of actions; pos
20、t-mortems. As far as the prognosis of machine health is concerned (which demands prophecies of future machine integrity and deterioration), there can be no exactitude in the process requiring statistical or testimonial approaches to be adopted. Standardization in prognosis of machine health therefor
21、e embodies guidelines, approaches and concepts rather than procedures or standard methodologies. Prognosis of future fault progressions requires foreknowledge of the probable failure modes, future duties to which the machine will/might be subjected, and a thorough understanding of the relationships
22、between failure modes and operating conditions. This can demand the collection of previous duty and cumulative duty parameters, along with condition and performance parameters, prior to extrapolations, projections and forecasts. Also, there are a growing number of models for damage initiation and da
23、mage progression. Prognosis processes need to accommodate these and future analytical damage models. As computing power increases and multiple parameter analysis becomes a reality, the ability to predict the initiation of a failure mode is not inconceivable if the initiation criteria, expressed as a
24、 set of parameter values for a given mode, are known as well as their future behaviour for a given set of conditions. BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI blank Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun N
25、ov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI 1 Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelines 1 Scope This International Standard provides guidance for the development of prognosis processes. It is intended to allow the users and manufacturers of
26、 condition monitoring and diagnostics systems to share common concepts in the fields of machinery fault prognosis, to enable users to determine the necessary data, characteristics and behaviour necessary for accurate prognosis, to outline an appropriate approach to prognosis development, and to intr
27、oduce prognoses concepts in order to facilitate the development of future systems and training. 2 Normative references The following referenced documents are indispensable for the application of this document. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For undated references, the latest e
28、dition of the referenced document (including any amendments) applies. ISO 13372, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Vocabulary ISO 17359, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines General guidelines 3 Terms and definitions For the purposes of this document, the terms and definit
29、ions given in ISO 13372 and the following apply. 3.1 prognosis estimation of time to failure and risk for one or more existing and future failure modes 3.2 confidence level figure of merit that indicates the degree of certainty that the diagnosis/prognosis is correct NOTE 1 It is expressed as a perc
30、entage. BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI 2 NOTE 2 This value is essentially a figure representing the cumulative effect of error sources on the final certainty or confidence in the accuracy of the outcome.
31、Such a figure can be determined algorithmically or via a weighted assessment system. 3.3 root cause set of conditions and/or actions that occur at the beginning of a sequence of events that result in the initiation of a failure mode 3.4 failure modes effects analysis FMEA pre-production design and d
32、evelopment process to help determine the ways that a machine could fail, and to assess the associated effects of such failure NOTE The FMEA procedure is outlined in BS 5760-5. 3.5 failure modes effects criticality analysis FMECA process that adds an economic, financial and/or safety component to FME
33、A to assist in maintenance management decisions NOTE The FMECA procedure is outlined in IEC 60812. 3.6 failure modes symptoms analysis FMSA process based on FMECA that documents the symptoms produced by each mode, and the most effective detection and monitoring techniques, in order to develop and op
34、timize a monitoring programme NOTE This process is outlined in ISO 13379. 3.7 estimated time to failure ETTF estimation of the period from the current point in time to the point in time when the monitored machine is deemed to be in the failed condition 4 Pre-requisite data required For the general c
35、oncepts for condition monitoring, see ISO 17359. These form the basis for the prognosis process and its pre-requisites. Prognosis requires collection of documented data covering the following: a) the total population of plant, machinery and components under observation; b) all monitored parameters a
36、nd descriptors; c) historical operation data, and maintenance and failure data; d) future operating and maintenance environments, requirements and schedules; e) initial diagnosis, including identification of all existing failure modes; f) failure modelling processes that can include statistics, exis
37、ting and future failure mode influence factors, initiation criteria, and failure definition set points for all parameters, and descriptors; g) curve fitting, projection and superimposition techniques; BS ISO 13381-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006,
38、 Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI 3 h) alarm limits; i) trip (shut-down) limits; j) results of failure investigation; k) reliability, availability, maintainability and safety data; l) damage initiation data; m) damage progression data. The specific objectives of the collection of reliability data relating
39、 to current condition and field performance of machinery are to provide for a survey of the actual reliability and, hence, to enable the predicted reliability characteristics of an item to be made and compared with field data and damage models, and thereby to improve future predictions, and to provi
40、de data for improving the reliability of both the current item and future developments. The specific objectives of the collection of data relating to current field duties and cumulative duties of machinery are to provide for a survey of the relationship between the actual reliability and the work do
41、ne and, hence, to enable a comparison of damage initiation and progression models with field data, to provide data for improving the damage estimation models of both the current item and future developments, and to provide data for the extension of the range of applications for damage estimation mod
42、els. The specific objectives of the collection of cost data relating to monitoring equipment and usage, production losses, secondary damage losses, maintenance activities and stores inventories of machinery are to provide for a survey of the benefit-to-cost ratios of various alternative maintenance
43、actions, to improve future maintenance decisions, to provide data for reducing the operating and maintenance costs of both the current item and future embodiments, and to provide cost data (along with monitored data and performance data, and also with field duty data) for the optimal organization an
44、d management of any maintenance operation (on-condition maintenance, scheduled preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, service personnel, spare parts stores, etc). 5 Prognosis concepts 5.1 Basic concepts Prognosis is an estimation of time to failure and risk for one or more existing and futu
45、re failure modes, and is normally intuitive and based on experience. Prognosis is usually effective for faults and failure modes with known, age-related, or progressive deterioration characteristics, the simplist of which is linear. Prognostics are most difficult for random failure modes. BS ISO 133
46、81-1:2004 Licensed Copy: sheffieldun sheffieldun, na, Sun Nov 26 06:03:50 GMT+00:00 2006, Uncontrolled Copy, (c) BSI 4 A failure is defined in terms of the monitored parameters/descriptors. Monitoring data on their own is insufficient to produce a prognosis. The general conceptual basics of a progno
47、sis process are a) to define the end point (usually the trip set point), b) to establish current severity, c) to determine/estimate the parameter behaviour and the expected rate of deterioration, and d) to determine the estimated time to failure (ETTF). It is important to understand that diagnostics
48、 is retrospective in nature in that it is focussed on existing data at a given point in time. However, prognostics is focussed on the future and, therefore, the following need to be considered: existing failure modes and deterioration rates; the initiation criteria for future failure modes; the role
49、 of existing failure modes in the initiation of future failure modes; the influence between existing and future failure modes and their deterioration rates; the sensitivity to detection and change of existing and future failure modes by current monitoring techniques; the design and variation of monitoring strategies to suit all of the above; the effect of maintenance actions and/or operating conditions; the conditions or assumptions under which p