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1、 Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 1 OVERVIEW Catalyst This profile analyzes the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) structure of Thailand. Each of the PESTLE f
2、actors is explored in terms of four parameters: current strengths, current challenges, future prospects, and future risks. Summary Key findings Thailand has followed prudent policies, but high levels of corruption derail developmental initiatives Over the years, the Thai government has encouraged hi
3、gher levels of public investment in order to foster rapid economic growth. In June 2010, former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva planned to launch the Reconciliation Plan to protect the nations main institutions, redress inequalities and injustice, enable constructive communications between the poli
4、tical parties, and put into motion a political process that is democratic, efficient, and transparent. The current coalition government headed by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra aims to enhance the competitiveness of Thailand by broadening market access for businesses as part of its economic poli
5、cy, promoting trade and investment, engaging in free trade agreements and co-operation frameworks to expand international economic linkages, providing solutions to the menace of drugs, preventing and fighting corruption, raising the standard of living of the Thai people through wage increases and ta
6、x relief, and developing the health insurance system. These prudent policies are expected to help the countrys development. However, alleged high levels of corruption could counter the governments strong policies. The purportedly widespread corruption in the countrys political and bureaucratic machi
7、nery hinders prospective investment. Transparency Internationals Corruption Perceptions Index for 2010 ranked Thailand 78th out of 178 countries. In the World Banks 2010 Worldwide Governance Indicators, the country was ranked in the 46.9 percentile for control of corruption. The series of corruption
8、 scandals facing the country covers procurement scams involving hospital equipment and school supplies, COUNTRY ANALYSIS REPORT Thailand In-depth PESTLE insights Publication Date: December 2011 Overview Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product
9、 and is not to be photocopied Page 2 construction tenders, and political appointments, which could derail developmental works undertaken by Thailand. Political parties squabbling over corruption charges could also lead to political instability. Thailand has a healthy banking system; however, the inc
10、reasing fiscal deficit is worrying Thailand is a major international financial center, with an integrated banking system network. The banking sector plays a significant role in the economy, with estimated financial sector assets at 200% of GDP. Loans expanded by 13.4% in the first quarter of 2011 co
11、mpared to the same period in 2010. Gross non-performing loans of the system declined to THB300bn ($9.81bn) in the first quarter of 2011, compared to THB371bn ($11.4bn) in the same period in 2010. Net profit during the quarter increased to THB32.1bn ($1.04bn), compared to THB27bn ($830m) in the first
12、 quarter of 2010. The Thai Asset Management Company, which was founded in 2001 to acquire and dispose of distressed and non-performing assets from state and private sector financial institutions after the financial crisis, was dissolved in September 2011 after absorbing debts totaling THB774bn ($25.
13、3bn) during the last decade. However, the governments increasing fiscal deficit is a cause for concern. The government has set the national budget for 201112 at THB2.3tn ($77.2bn), an increase from THB2.1tn ($63.5bn) in 201011. In November 2011, the prime minister submitted a draft budget bill for 2
14、012 that called for expenditure of THB2.38tn ($77.2bn). If implemented, the populist policies promised by the current government during its election campaign could cost THB2tn ($65.4bn) over five years. The budget deficit in 2010 was $8.1bn, or 2.7% of GDP. It is expected that the budget deficit wil
15、l rise to around THB400bn ($13.4bn) in 201112, or 3.9% of GDP. The increasing fiscal deficit will make it difficult for the government to enjoy strong public finances for both social welfare and economic development programs. Although Thailand has a strong social security system, increasing income a
16、nd developmental disparity is a cause for concern Thailand included social protection in its 11th National Economic and Social Development Plan. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra aims to provide solutions to the menace of drugs, prevent and fight corruption, raise the standard of living of the Thai
17、 people through wage increases and tax relief, and develop the health insurance system. The government raised the daily minimum wage of more than 20,000 public sector workers to THB300 ($10) in October 2011, while the Central Wage Committee intends to raise the private sector minimum wage by around
18、40% from April 2012. The government has embarked upon a strategic plan to make Thailand a welfare society by 2016. According to the deputy permanent secretary for social development and human society Napa Setthakorn, the second strategic plan scheduled for 201216 will extend the countrys social secu
19、rity system to cover all groups of people, including those in the non-formal sector. The government will also seek to develop the quality of and raise funds for social security services. However, there is income and development disparity in the country. While Bangkok and its suburbs are prospering,
20、the barren northeast remains poor. The rapid economic growth in and around Bangkok has further marginalized the countrys less developed regions. In addition, the country faces significant income inequality; for example, the average wage levels of employees participating in the private and public sec
21、tors in the northeast are around three times lower than those in Bangkok and twice as low as those in the central region. Per capita government expenditure in the northeast particularly on health and agriculture is also comparatively lower than other regions and below the central region by almost ha
22、lf. The government needs to tackle the regional disparity in income and development, as it could lead to an increase in crime and anti-national activities in the country. Overview Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photo
23、copied Page 3 Research and development expenditure in the country is growing, but weak intellectual property rights protection is an issue The government has planned a holistic set of measures for promoting research and development (R the recent spate of devastating floods are a case in point. Airbo
24、rne particulate pollution levels have worsened in the northern province of Chiang Rai, with levels of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and lead that are above internationally recognized levels. CO2 emissions increased from around 187 million metric tonnes in 2002 to around 268 mill
25、ion metric tonnes in 2010. It is expected that the increasing pollution levels will cause the environment to deteriorate further in the coming years, and could harm the health of both the Thai people and the economy. PESTLE highlights Political landscape The improvement in bilateral relations with C
26、ambodia has diminished the risk of conflict. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra visited Cambodia in September 2011, and both countries have agreed to jointly develop maritime areas in the Gulf of Thailand. According to the World Banks 2010 Worldwide Governance Indicators, the country performed poorl
27、y in every single parameter, recording low percentile ranks in terms of voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. Economic landscape Thailands diversified manufacturing sector is a significant contributor to t
28、he countrys growth. In 2010, the industrial sector contributed 44.7% of GDP, with output increasing from THB2.3tn ($53.1bn) in 2002 to THB4.3tn ($119.5bn) in 2010. The Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated that the recent floods have cost the economy $33bn and 1 million jobs due to loss of assets a
29、nd lower output. The industry ministry has claimed that the countrys high technology exports could slide by as much as 40% in 2012. Social landscape Thailand had a literacy rate of 95.7% for the total population in 2010. The government spent around 4.3% of GDP on education during 200609. The high li
30、teracy rate signifies the presence of a large educated workforce. Overview Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 5 With thousands of homes surrounded by water since July 2011, the nations medical experts ar
31、e warning of an outbreak of disease, with the population facing the threat of cholera, gastrointestinal diseases, and typhoid. Technology landscape The number of patents granted to Thailand by the US Patent and Trademark Office increased from 25 in 2005 to 60 in 2010, which shows remarkable progress
32、 in terms of the countrys innovation scenario. Thailand faces a shortage of skilled workers, which could limit the countrys technological innovation and productivity. Its gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education is only 45%, which needs to be improved in order to increase the skilled workforce. L
33、egal landscape Thailand has announced major tax reforms to encourage investment and support the market through increased domestic consumption. Tax reforms are expected to increase tax revenues, as well as helping increase business investment in the country. Thailands Foreign Business Act strictly li
34、mits the level of foreign investment, especially in the services sector. The World Banks Investing Across Borders 2010 report stated that Thailands restrictions on foreign equity ownership were the most stringent among 87 countries. Environmental landscape In October 2010, the Thai cabinet agreed to
35、 impose a new tax on polluting industries as part of its effort to conserve the environment. The tax rates are expected to be set based on the type of pollution, including water, air, and industrial waste. According to environmentalists in the country, a record 27 environmental activists have been k
36、illed in the past 16 years for fighting to save land from illegal developmental projects and campaigning against the sand mafia and illegal timber logging. Overview Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 6 K
37、ey fundamentals Table 1: Thailand key fundamentals 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f GDP, constant 2000 prices ($bn) 170.9 184.2 191.0 199.5 208.8 218.4 228.4 GDP growth rate (%) -2.3 7.8 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 GDP, constant 2000 prices, per capita ($) 2,562.2 2,739.9 2,820.3 2,926.3 3,035.5 3,16
38、6.5 3,305.9 Inflation (%) -0.8 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.7 Exports, total as a percentage of GDP 72.8 76.1 79.0 74.6 70.1 65.8 62.0 Imports, total as a percentage of GDP 68.5 75.6 73.5 70.0 66.5 63.1 60.1 Mid-year population, total (millions) 66.7 67.2 67.7 68.2 68.8 69.0 69.1 Unemployment rate (%) 1.5
39、1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Mobile penetration (per 100 people) 170.9 184.2 191.0 199.5 208.8 218.4 228.4 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R Table of Contents Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 7 TABL
40、E OF CONTENTS Overview 1 Catalyst 1 Summary 1 Key Facts and Geographic Location 12 Key facts 12 Geographic location 13 PESTLE Analysis 14 Summary 14 Political analysis 15 Economic analysis 18 Social analysis 22 Technological analysis 25 Legal analysis 28 Environmental analysis 31 Political Landscape
41、 34 Summary 34 Evolution 34 Structure and policies 36 Performance 41 Outlook 42 Economic Landscape 43 Summary 43 Evolution 43 Structure and policies 45 Performance 47 Outlook 60 Social Landscape 61 Summary 61 Evolution 61 Structure and policies 61 Performance 64 Table of Contents Country Analysis Re
42、port: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 8 Outlook 66 Technological Landscape 67 Summary 67 Evolution 67 Structure and policies 67 Performance 68 Outlook 71 Legal Landscape 72 Summary 72 Evolution 72 Structure and policies 72 Pe
43、rformance 75 Outlook 75 Environmental Landscape 76 Summary 76 Evolution 76 Structure and policies 76 Performance 77 Outlook 79 Appendix 80 Ask the analyst 80 Datamonitor consulting 80 Disclaimer 80 Table of Contents Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a lic
44、ensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 9 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Map of Thailand 13 Figure 2: Thailand key political events timeline 36 Figure 3: Thailand key political figures 37 Figure 4: Composition of the House of Representatives, 2011 39 Figure 5: Thailand historical GDP growth, 199
45、12010 44 Figure 6: Market capitalization of the SET, 200310 46 Figure 7: GDP and GDP growth rate in Thailand, 200414 48 Figure 8: GDP composition by sectors, 2010 49 Figure 9: Agricultural output of Thailand, 200510 50 Figure 10: Industrial output of Thailand, 200510 51 Figure 11: Services output of
46、 Thailand, 200510 52 Figure 12: Current account balance of Thailand, 200510 53 Figure 13: Balance of trade in Thailand, 200610 54 Figure 14: External trade of Thailand, 200610 55 Figure 15: Total foreign investment in Thailand, 200510 56 Figure 16: Consumer price index and consumer price index-based
47、 inflation in Thailand, 200414 57 Figure 17: Employment in Thailand, 200414 59 Figure 18: Unemployment in Thailand, 200414 60 Figure 19: Thailand composition by religion 63 Figure 20: Expenditure on healthcare in Thailand, 200110 65 Figure 21: Government expenditure on education in Thailand, 200213
48、66 Figure 21: Growth of fixed and mobile phones in Thailand, 200212 69 Figure 22: Internet users in Thailand, 200209 70 Figure 23: Carbon dioxide emissions in Thailand, 200310 78 Table of Contents Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and i
49、s not to be photocopied Page 10 Figure 24: Carbon fuel usage in Thailand, 200310 79 Table of Contents Country Analysis Report: Thailand Published 12/2011 Datamonitor. This brief is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 11 TABLE OF TABLES Table 1: Thailand key fundamentals 6 Table 2: Thailand key facts 12 Table 3: Analysis of Thailands political landscape 15 Table 4: Analysis of Thailands economy 18 Table 5: Analysis of Thailands social system 22 Table 6: Analysis of T