《DB_GOLD_CONFERENCE-2012-09-19.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《DB_GOLD_CONFERENCE-2012-09-19.pdf（24页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Australasia Australia M searching for the right mix Production, growth profile, cash costs, operational reliability and dividends. _ Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are s
2、ourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest th
3、at could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Chris Terry Research Analyst (+61) 2 8258-2528 Brett McKay Resear
4、ch Analyst (+61) 2 8258-2607 Mat Hocking Research Associate (+61) 2 8258-2611 Top picks Regis Resources (RRL.AX),AUD5.21 Buy St Barbara (SBM.AX),AUD2.07 Buy Alacer Gold (AQG.AX),AUD6.80 Buy Companies Featured Alacer Gold (AQG.AX),AUD6.80 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E DB EPS (USD) 0.520.490.89 P/E (x) 19.0
5、14.68.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.95.43.1 Medusa Mining (MML.AX),AUD6.23 Buy 2012A 2013E 2014E DB EPS (USD) 0.260.691.27 P/E (x) 24.39.55.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.18.84.4 Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX),AUD29.05 Hold 2012A 2013E 2014E DB EPS (AUD) 1.421.932.40 P/E (x) 23.215.112.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.68.67.1 St Barbara (
6、SBM.AX),AUD2.07 Buy 2012A 2013E 2014E DB EPS (AUD) 0.400.450.40 P/E (x) 5.34.65.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.82.31.8 Regis Resources (RRL.AX),AUD5.21 Buy 2012A 2013E 2014E DB EPS (AUD) 0.150.620.72 P/E (x) 22.68.37.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.35.03.8 DB hosted an Australian mid-cap gold conference, with companies rangi
7、ng from explorers to producers with assets spanning several geographies. In todays market, investors seem to be searching for 1) valuation appeal; 2) a believable production profile; 3) competitive cash costs; 4) scalable production with low-capital long-term growth options, 5) resource/reserve grow
8、th potential and; 6) dividends or potential for dividends. While value in the sector is becoming difficult to identify, of the stocks we cover we prefer Regis (Buy, PT $5.50), Alacer (Buy, PT $7.98) and St. Barbara for leverage (Buy, PT $2.17). Golden prospects forecasting +US$2000/oz in 1H 2013 We
9、believe gold prices can continue to climb higher supported by 1) growth in the money supply and continued devaluation of the USD; 2) inflationary concerns; 3) low interest rate environment and; 4) further central bank purchases to diversify reserve holdings. - We expect the gold market to continue t
10、o react positively to further global stimulus measures. In the US, the latest round of QE may not be the last; and we see the US Fed as a continuing source of strength for the gold market. The Chinese government transition should be finalised this year, with the potential for further stimulus in the
11、 near-term. Europe is the possible exception, with concerns around the true flexibility of the ECB. We see this region as a potential deflationary threat and possible catalyst for weaker gold prices. - Central banks continue to actively move away from retaining the traditional core holdings of USD,
12、GBP, JPY and EUR, with gold seen as one of the main beneficiaries. We expect China to increase its gold holdings over time, with only 1.7% of reserves held as gold, well below the global average of 10%. - The quantum of the gold price rise largely depends on (1) the extent and duration of money expa
13、nsion; (2) the perception of inflationary fears and; (3) continued review of money as a store of value/wealth and driving the investing public to increasingly buy and trade gold instead of paper currencies. DB currently forecasts US$1900, US$2000 and US$2200/oz in the next 3 quarters. Preferred gold
14、 exposures: RRL, AQG, SBM Our top picks are RRL (growth profile to DBe 340koz in FY13 from 105koz in FY12, dividend yield, reliable operations) and AQG (growth from a world-class asset in pler). For gold price leverage we prefer SBM; a 10% change in gold price forecasts boosts our NPV by 36% and FY1
15、3E EPS by 28%; SBM has the most upside when running flat spot gold with a 110% NPV increase. Valuation and risk We use DCF to value our universe (see company pages). Upside risks include operational outperformance (higher grades and production rates, lower costs and capex). Downside risks include op
16、erational underperformance (lower head grades and production rates and higher costs and capex). Macro risks include movement in the gold price and the AUDUSD. 18 September 2012 M Regis has announced a 22km drilling program in next 12 months leading into maiden reserve, then pre-feasibility study exp
17、ected by FY15 Production 105koz (FY12), company guidance for FY13 is 315-345koz (DBe 338koz) C1 Costs A$512/oz (FY12), company guidance for FY13 is A$400-450/oz at Garden Well, A$540-590/oz at Moolart Well (DBe A$459/oz) Catalysts and newsflow 1) Commissioning of Garden Well is complete. The company
18、 recently released production guidance to 220-240kozpa in FY13. We believe this is conservative, and a continued successful ramp-up will indicate company targets will be achieved if not exceeded. 2) Garden Well resource update due Q4 2012, reserve update either Q4 2012 or Q1 2013. Rosemont reserve u
19、pdate due in next 4-6 weeks. Most attractive targets are at the south of Garden Well and region areas. 3) McPhillamys represents the next growth opportunity for Regis, and the 22,000m of drilling that will be undertaken in FY13 should delineate the ore body and provide enough information to report a
20、 maiden reserve. Overall view We place a premium on this stock due to the strong balance sheet, growth profile and reliable management team. The company has indicated it will pay a dividend at the end of FY13. Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank Evolution Mining (EVN.ASX, not covered) Figure 2: EVN
21、presentation by Jake Klein (Executive Chairman), key company details below: Parameter Parameter Market Cap A$1,358M (Current share price $1.92/sh) Cash A$142M Debt A$32M Resources 131Mt at 1.7g/t for 7.08Moz (Au equivalent) Reserves 71.2Mt at 1.5g/t for 3.49Moz (Au equivalent) Projects 1) Australia:
22、 Mt Rawdon, C1 cash costs of A$684/oz in FY12. The Company expects production profile of 100kozpa in FY13. 2) Australia: Cracow, underground mine targeting high grade epithermal gold deposit, currently 2 years of reserves left (244koz) according to company 3) Australia: Pajingo Mine, an open-cut ope
23、ration with a 5 year mine life. EVN looking to improve production and cash costs in FY13, expecting 85-90koz at A$730-780/oz. 4) Australia: Edna May, open cut mine in WA, relatively high cash costs (A$949/oz). EVN believes its making in-roads operationally, with potential extension of resources alon
24、g strike. 5) Australia: Mt Carlton; new operation under construction, refractory ore body with Au-Ag-Cu rich ores. EVN predict this will be the lowest cost producer when fully operational (the Company expects to be producing by end of 2012). Producing two concentrates, with an off-take agreement alr
25、eady organized (de-risks project). Production 347koz (FY12, 280koz attributable), company guidance for FY13 is 370-410koz C1 costs A$771/oz (FY12), company guidance for FY13 is A$730-790/oz Key points 1) FY12 cash costs were below guidance; however FY13 targets are A$70/oz lower - achieving this is
26、a key aim for the Company. 2) Exploration ongoing with $28M for 100km drilling program in FY13. 3) EVN sees commissioning of the Mt Carlton processing plant as a key milestone; company guidance is for 25-30koz in FY13. Source: Company data 18 September 2012 M the Gwalia mine is the proven, consisten
27、t operation that provides the free cash flow for the company. Gwalia Deeps continues to add to the mine life, and King of the Hills adds supplementary ore to maximize plant capacity 2) Australia: Southern Cross operations, at the end of mine life, will go on care and maintenance in FY13 3) Papua New
28、 Guinea: Simberi mine, acquired during the SBM takeover of Allied Gold; mining multiple pits in a high rainfall environment; fine, clay-like ore being mined close to surface has brought significant throughput issues at the primary crusher and plant; SBM looking to improve pit conditions and adjust c
29、rusher set-up to bring down operating costs. 4) Solomon Islands: Gold Ridge also acquired from Allied Gold, has a storied history over the last 20 years with multiple changes to ownership. Issues with weather and plant performance have led to operating costs of A$1100/oz, however SBM believe this ca
30、n be lowered towards A$850/oz through some required capital spend and operating efficiencies. Production 339koz (FY12), company guidance for Oz assets is 250-275koz in FY13, guidance for Simberi/Gold Ridge will be released Dec/Jan C1 costs A$823/oz (FY12), cost guidance will be updated with Simberi/
31、Gold Ridge guidance in Dec/Jan. Catalysts and newsflow 1) Reserve extension from King of the Hills will de-risk the Leonora mine plan; Reserve tones have been added at Gwalia Deeps. Having the ability to feed from multiple sources de-risks the production guidance. 2) Cash cost reductions at Simberi
32、and Gold Ridge will be taken positively; SBM has outlined where it believes short-term improvements can be achieved; mainly through improving road and pit maintenance, stocking critical spares onsite and some adjustments to the front ends of the plants to accommodate fine, high-moisture ore. Overall
33、 view SBM is a leveraged gold play given its high-cash cost position. The acquisition of Simberi and Gold Ridge bring significant operational challenges and some positive signs of cash cost turnaround from these mines would in our view drive a re-rate. Source: Deutsche Bank Northern Star Resources (
34、NST.ASX, not covered) Figure 4: NST presentation by Michael Fotios (Non-executive Director), key company details below: Parameter Parameter Market Cap A$530M (Current share price $1.24/sh) Cash A$75M Debt A$3M Resources 2.4Mt at 5.0g/t for 403koz Reserves 1.3Mt at 4.0g/t for 166koz Projects 1) Austr
35、alia: Paulsens Mine in WA, operating mine that produced 87koz in CY11 at A$588/oz C1 cash costs. Significant extension to reserves/resources through deep drilling program has uncovered some ultra-high grade intercepts (+60g/t). Has delivered maiden fully-franked dividend of 2.5c in 2012. 2) Australi
36、a: Ashburton project, holds Mt Olympus prospect; NST believes it could be second operation; 340koz at 3.3g/t oxide material mined in 1998-2004, looking at refractory sulphide resource for open cut mining; the Company says met test work suggests 80-90% recovery possible. Production 87koz (CY11), comp
37、any guidance is for 75-80koz in CY12, 100-155koz in CY13 Costs A$588/oz (CY11), company guidance for CY13 is A$610-590/oz (inclusive of A$40/oz royalty) Key points 1) Further drilling to convert resources to reserves may not be feasible as depth increases, according to the company; NST has indicated
38、 it is comfortable to add resources as they mine. 2) The company foresees using the cash flow Paulsens to acquire/develop a second operation, allowing NST to grow into a larger mid-cap operator. Source: Company data 18 September 2012 M produced 137koz in FY12. Plant nameplate capacity 5.5Mtpa, PRU a
39、ims to ramp up to 8Mtpa for $15m capex spend. The project has multiple ore bodies defined within a 5km radius of the Edikan processing plant, with significant exploration upside to these deposits accordint to the company. 2) Cte dIvoire: Tengrela Gold Project next asset to be developed with 90% of p
40、lant design complete and the SAG mill due onsite in late 2012. The project has received the exploitation permit for Sissingu with early ground works expected to be commenced in Q3 2012. The Company expects first gold production in late CY13/early CY14. Production 137koz (FY12); guidance 245-265koz i
41、n FY13 C1 costs A$696/oz (FY12); guidance US$600/oz Key points 1) The Company is targeting steadily increasing throughput at Edikan to hit 8Mtpa run-rate by mid CY13. 2) Development of Sissingu and commissioning by late CY13/early CY14, according to the company. 3) Clarity on fiscal regime in Cte dI
42、voire and potential impact on timing and commitment of capital to develop the project Source: Company data Papillon Resources (PIR.ASX, not covered) Figure 6: PIR presentation by Hayden Locke (Business Development), key company details below: Parameter Parameter Market Cap A$368M (Current share pric
43、e $1.46/sh) Cash A$22M Debt - Resources 40.1Mt at 2.4g/t for 3.14Moz Reserves - Projects 1) Mali: Fekola Gold Project located in far western Mali, near border with Senegal. Resource defined within 2km strike length and 250m depth, the company believes the mineralization is open in all directions. Pr
44、oduction NA Costs NA Key points 1) Scoping Study to be completed in Q4 2012; the Company believes drill density now sufficient to satisfy studies to pre- feasibility status. 2) The Company has recently completed 52,000m infill drill program with only 5,000m incorporated in recent maiden resource; ba
45、lance of assay results remain outstanding; PIR forecasts a further $10-13m 100,000m program to begin late CY12 targeting resource extensions. 3) PIR has advised that recent metallurgical testing indicated good metallurgical characteristics, with further work to ensure this is a consistent feature ac
46、ross the entire ore body. Scope to increase grind size and reduce power draw without big decrease in recovery will be investigated by the Company. Source: Company data 18 September 2012 M company guidance 40-45koz in FY13. 2) Argentina: Casposo open cut and underground mine; company guidance 115.2ko
47、z AuEq at US$635/oz in FY13; 5yr mine life Production 137koz (FY12) Costs A$606/oz (FY12) Key points 1) TRY expects Casposo at peak gold output over next 3 years 2) TRY believes growth to be driven by Casposo project with near-mine exploration campaign to extend reserves and mine life down plunge 3)
48、 The Company will undertake a $15m regional exploration at Casposo targeting new discoveries under cover within a 9km prospective corridor. 4) TRY expects to continue to be strong dividend paying company Source: Company data Beadell Resources (BDR.ASX, not covered) Figure 8: BDR presentation by Pete
49、r Bowler (Managing Director), key company details below: Parameter Parameter Market Cap A$692M (Current share price $0.94/sh) Cash A$23M Debt A$98M Resources 90.5Mt at 1.47g/t for 4.3Moz Reserves 26.4Mt at 1.47g/t for 1.3Moz Projects Brazil: Tucano Gold Project under construction ($100m), peak gold output of 180kozpa (company forecast), 10 year mine life; iron ore by-product credit agreement in place.