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3、 INDUSTRY PROFILE Fertilizer in China Reference Code: 0099-2404 Publication Date: April 2011 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market value The Chinese fertilizer market shrank
4、 by 11.4% in 2010 to reach a value of $51.8 billion. Market value forecast In 2015, the Chinese fertilizer market is forecast to have a value of $67.4 billion, an increase of 30.1% since 2010. Market volume The Chinese fertilizer market grew by 4.2% in 2010 to reach a volume of 55.8 million tons. Ma
5、rket volume forecast In 2015, the Chinese fertilizer market is forecast to have a volume of 62.2 million tons, an increase of 11.5% since 2010. Market segmentation I nitrogen (N) is the largest segment of the fertilizer market in China, accounting for 58.3% of the markets total value. Market segment
6、ation II China accounts for 64.8% of the Asia-Pacific fertilizer market value. Market rivalry Rivalry in the Chinese fertilizer market is strong overall, primarily because of the high fixed costs and difficulty in exiting the market, associated with fertilizer production. CONTENTS China - Fertilizer
7、 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 MARKET OVERVIEW 7 Market definition 7 Research highlights 8 Market analysis 9 MARKET VALUE 10 MARKET VOLUME 11 MARKET SEGMENTATION I 12 MARKET SEGMENTATION II
8、 13 FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS 14 Summary 14 Buyer power 15 Supplier power 17 New entrants 19 Substitutes 20 Rivalry 21 LEADING COMPANIES 23 China BlueChemical Ltd. 23 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd 27 China Agritech, Inc. 30 MARKET FORECASTS 33 Market value forecast 33 Market volume forecast 34 MACROECONOMIC I
9、NDICATORS 35 APPENDIX 37 Methodology 37 Industry associations 38 Related Datamonitor research 38 CONTENTS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 4 Disclaimer 39 ABOUT DATAMONITOR 40 Premium Reports 40 Summary Reports 40
10、 Datamonitor consulting 40 CONTENTS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 5 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: China fertilizer market value: $ billion, 200610 10 Table 2: China fertilizer market volume: million tons, 200610 11 T
11、able 3: China fertilizer market segmentation I:% share, by value, 2010 12 Table 4: China fertilizer market segmentation II: % share, by value, 2010 13 Table 5: China BlueChemical Ltd.: key facts 23 Table 6: China BlueChemical Ltd.: key financials ($) 24 Table 7: China BlueChemical Ltd.: key financia
12、ls (CNY) 24 Table 8: China BlueChemical Ltd.: key financial ratios 25 Table 9: China XLX Fertiliser Ltd: key facts 27 Table 10: China XLX Fertiliser Ltd: key financials ($) 28 Table 11: China XLX Fertiliser Ltd: key financials (CNY) 28 Table 12: China XLX Fertiliser Ltd: key financial ratios 28 Tabl
13、e 13: China Agritech, Inc.: key facts 30 Table 14: China Agritech, Inc.: key financials ($) 31 Table 15: China Agritech, Inc.: key financial ratios 31 Table 16: China fertilizer market value forecast: $ billion, 201015 33 Table 17: China fertilizer market volume forecast: million tons, 201015 34 Tab
14、le 18: China size of population (million), 200610 35 Table 19: China GDP (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 200610 35 Table 20: China GDP (current prices, $ billion), 200610 35 Table 21: China inflation, 200610 36 Table 22: China consumer price index (absolute), 200610 36 Table 23: China exchange ra
15、te, 200610 36 CONTENTS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: China fertilizer market value: $ billion, 200610 10 Figure 2: China fertilizer market volume: million tons, 200610 11 Figure 3: C
16、hina fertilizer market segmentation I:% share, by value, 2010 12 Figure 4: China fertilizer market segmentation II: % share, by value, 2010 13 Figure 5: Forces driving competition in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 14 Figure 6: Drivers of buyer power in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 15 F
17、igure 7: Drivers of supplier power in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 17 Figure 8: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 19 Figure 9: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 20 Figure 10: Drivers
18、of degree of rivalry in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 21 Figure 11: China BlueChemical Ltd.: revenues high degree of intellectual property and regulation are just some of the factors new entrants have to consider when entering the fertilizer market. Substitutes pose a moderate threat: althoug
19、h offering many benefits over chemical fertilizers, organic fertilizers are difficult to manufacture in the volumes required to pose a serious threat. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 15 Buyer
20、 power Figure 6: Drivers of buyer power in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R Buyers that purchase fertilizers direct from the manufacturers tend to be distributors, wholesalers or retailers; they are numerous and often tailored towards specific markets an
21、d consisting of companies, such as agricultural suppliers or gardening centers, who then sell to end users. Primarily used in the agriculture industry, fertilizer is applied to increase crop yields. This allows farmers to utilize land more efficiently, producing higher yielding crops for the availab
22、le land, increasing their earnings per acre. This renders fertilizer essential to farmers and an important product amongst buyers. For buyers specializing in agricultural supplies, fertilizer will be one of its key products and a large proportion of revenue will be gained from its sale. This negates
23、 price sensitivity to a degree; however buyers are able to pass on price increases to the end user. These factors create a reduction in buyer power, however if there is an alternative player offering cheaper products the low switching costs amongst buyers creates a market with little loyalty, which
24、leads to greater buyer power, as does the commoditized nature of fertilizer, allowing purchasing decisions to be based primarily on price. Buyers tend to be medium to large companies, specializing in associated markets and, with the associated financial muscle, serve to increase buyer power through
25、the ability to negotiate favorable prices when ordering in bulk. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 16 Some buyers have integrated backwards, Carrs Milling Industries is a good example, supplyin
26、g farming and rural communities with agricultural products and services and also manufacturing its own fertilizer, equally, fertilizer manufacturers are capable of integrating forwards into the agricultural supplies market which offsets the increase in buyer power gained through backward integration
27、. Overall, buyer power within the fertilizer market is assessed as moderate. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 17 Supplier power Figure 7: Drivers of supplier power in the fertilizer market in
28、China, 2010 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R The raw materials used in the manufacture of fertilizer, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, sulfur and other oil and natural gas derived products are usually procured under long term contracts, increasing switching costs and suppli
29、er power. Furthermore, suppliers tend to be large multinational chemical, oil and gas companies, whose business operations regularly encompass large scale forward integration to manufacture a variety of products, including fertilizer, which serves to increase supplier power. Additionally, the likeli
30、hood of manufacturers integrating backwards into the chemical, gas or oil industries is low, due to the high level of competition and exceptionally high start up capital required. The fertilizer market, although important, is not essential to the operations of chemical, oil and gas companies. Their
31、products have many applications and are used across all industries, from energy supply to the sulfuric acid in car batteries. This diversity means that the market players are quite dispensable and allows suppliers to exert influence over the manufacturers of fertilizer. Another issue that adds crede
32、nce to supplier power in this market is the lack of substitutes for specific fertilizers. Although there are a number of differing chemical fertilizers using different materials, they have specific roles, for example nitrogen fertilizer is one of the most commonly used fertilizers and there is no su
33、bstitute for nitrogen. Replacing nitrogen based fertilizers for a substitute chemical fertilizer such as phosphate based fertilizers is difficult as they dont have the same applications as nitrogen based fertilizers. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profil
34、e is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 18 Therefore, companies have to rely on specific materials from suppliers which hands the supplier additional bargaining power. Overall, supplier power in the fertilizer market is assessed as moderate. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer
35、0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 19 New entrants Figure 8: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R Entrance to the fertilizer market involv
36、es high fixed costs, due to the specialized nature of the equipment required to operate fertilizer production. In addition, the cost of raw materials is high and prices are subject to fluctuations, with oil and gas being particularly susceptible. This requires large economies of scale to achieve a r
37、eturn on investment along with a high degree of intellectual property in order to produce an effective fertilizer. Additionally, there is a high degree of regulation when working with chemicals, thus these factors reduce the attractiveness of the market for new entrants. Further off-putting is the s
38、trength of existing fertilizer brands to compete against, and the level of aggressiveness such large organizations respond with when confronted with new competitors, creates a very unattractive prospect for new entrants. The product is commoditized; although it can be differentiated to some extent,
39、i.e. depending on crops and soil types. Low switching costs for buyers lead to an increase in the threat from new entrants; however, this is negligible when compared to the overriding factors discouraging entry in to the market. Overall, the likelihood of new entrants is assessed as moderate. FIVE F
40、ORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 20 Substitutes Figure 9: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R Organic fert
41、ilizers are the main substitute to traditional chemical fertilizers; raw materials used in manufacture of such fertilizers are derived usually from plant or animal waste, residue and mass. In agriculture, combinations of both: organic and inorganic fertilizers are normally utilized. The production o
42、f inorganic fertilizers results in high energy consumption, additionally, in the long term; fertilizer production cannot be continued indefinitely, as many raw materials are sourced from finite supplies. Organic fertilizers carry many benefits - they are widely available and relatively cheap to manu
43、facture, with many farms being able to produce their own by recycling the waste of their livestock. On a much smaller scale, individuals can produce their own fertilizers through composting. Buyers, such as wholesalers and retailers, are generally not tied in to long term contracts, and if there is
44、a significant shift to demand for organic fertilizer, with switching cost being minimal. With organic fertilizer usually being cheaper, and in the case of certain farm practices and non-industrial applications, free, the threat from substitutes in terms of cost is significant. Benefits of organic fe
45、rtilizers over chemical fertilizers include the assurance that food crops are free of harmful chemicals and are bio-degradable, reducing pollution issues, such as eutrophication. Although organic fertilizer offers many benefits not only in cost but also performance, it would be extremely difficult t
46、o produce the volumes required to meet worldwide demand, particularly for the agricultural industry. Overall, the threat of substitutes to the fertilizer market is assessed as moderate. FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS China - Fertilizer 0099 - 2404 - 2010 Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is
47、not to be photocopied Page 21 Rivalry Figure 10: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the fertilizer market in China, 2010 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R The fertilizer market is dominated by large companies, in particular the vertically integrated petrochemical companies, such as Total SA, wh
48、ich increases the level of rivalry. However, this is offset to some extent by the relatively low numbers of fertilizer manufacturers, a result of capital intensive start up costs amongst other factors. The commoditized nature of the product means rivalry is intensified furthermore, as buyers can mak
49、e their buying decisions primarily based on price. Additionally, the seasonal nature of fertilizers creates a competitive environment than can be more intense during planting seasons; however, international manufacturers have an advantage over localized companies, as they can access planting seasons throughout the year in varying countries. The fertilizer market is difficult to exit due to the high fixed costs associated with its manufacturing, i