《Electric Vehicle (EV) and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Markets Worldwide.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Electric Vehicle (EV) and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Markets Worldwide.pdf（156页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、 This page intentionally left blank Company Background SBI Energy (Specialists in Business Information), a division of MarketR, publishes research reports in the industrial, energy, building/construction, and automotive/transportation markets. SBI Energy also offers a full range of custom research s
2、ervices. To learn more, visit . Why Buy From Us? In-depth researchexpert analysis. Our reports are written by analysts with years of experience as professionals tracking various industries. This experience and our time-intensive research methodology result in authoritative analysis that aids the dec
3、ision-making processes of our clients. Our reports continue to provide a broad, top-level overview of a market and offer not only the raw data, but focus on interpretation of that data to make it more relevant and usable by our clients. The right informationat the right time. From identifying the ef
4、fects of emerging markets across major industries, to covering the trends in niche markets, our reports are timely. Our editorial team tracks the trends that will shape these markets in the coming months, and years. SBI Energy provides the expert analysis our clients have come to rely on to make the
5、 right strategic decisions, at the right time. Products you needwith flexibility in pricing and delivery you want. With Buy By The Slice, you save money by purchasing smaller section(s) of a report (when you dont need the entire report) which you can read immediately online. Instant Online Delivery
6、is a unique online delivery method that enables you to purchase, read and use the research you need immediately. Personalized Client Support SBI Energy is unrivaled in the level of client support that we provide to our clients. From assistance in identifying the most relevant research, to post-sale
7、question and answer support, our goal is to develop long-term relationships that meet the ongoing needs of our clients. Norman Deschamps (New Brunswick, Canada) holds a Bachelor of Science in Physics and a Masters in Aerospace Engineering. His research work has included developing a mathematical mod
8、el to quantify anthropogenic environmental disasters, quantifying window energy loss, and analysis of magnetostrictive materials which was published in the Journal of Condensed Matter Physics. Norman now works as a science writer and as a consultant to businesses who are interested in obtaining inde
9、pendent scientific analysis for their products. About the Author This page intentionally left blank ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) AND PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (PHEV) MARKETS WORLDWIDE MARCH 2010 Electric Vehicle (EV) and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Markets Worldwide has been prepared by SB
10、I Energy. Our market intelligence reports are specifically designed to aid the action-oriented executive by providing a thorough presentation of essential data and concise analysis. Vice President of Publishing Don Montuori Publisher Shelley Carr Author Norman Deschamps Research Director David Sprin
11、kle Marketing Manager Jenn Tekin Communications Associate Daniel Granderson Publication Date March 2010 Copyright 2010 SBI Energy SB2496608 1-59814-315-8 This page intentionally left blank EV 2009 estimated by SBI Energy121 Products 121 Table 6-1: Sales of Toyota Passenger HEVs by Model, 1997-August
12、, 2009 (in thousands of vehicles).122 Significant Developments123 Toyota Awash in Recalls.123 Toyota Invests in Lithium Mining.123 A Separate Prius Brand?.124 The Plug-in Prius is Ready! (For Some)124 Honda Motor Company .125 Overview .125 Performance125 Figure 6-5: Worldwide Honda Revenue, FY2005-2
13、009 (revenue trillions of yen, income in billions of yen).126 Products 126 Table 6-2: Cumulative Honda Hybrid Vehicle Sales, 1999-Jan. 2009 (in number of vehicles sold)127 Significant Developments127 Ford Motor Company.129 Overview .129 Performance129 Figure 6-6: Worldwide Ford Revenue, FY2005-2009
14、(in billion dollars)130 Products 130 Significant Developments131 General Motors Company .132 Overview .132 Performance132 Products 132 Table of Contents EV SBI Energy calculates that worldwide HEV sales accounted for 99% of world electric vehicle sales in 2009. 168 410 519523 327 696 1.0%1.0% 0.8% 0
15、.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 200420052006200720082009(E) -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Hybrid Vehicle SalesHybrids sold as % of Cars produced EV 2009 data is from HybridC; compiled by SBI Energy. The Toyota Prius dominates the U.S. HEV market, with 48.1% of all hybrids sold in the U.S. be
16、ing Prius in 2009. However, increased competition shows in the 11.9% drop in Prius sales seen in 2009 compared to 2008, a larger drop than seen by hybrids as a whole. That reduction in sales is due in part to strong sales of the new Honda Insight and Ford Fusion models which were introduced in 2009.
17、 Japan HEV Sales Explode in 2009 SBI Energy estimates that production of hybrids in Japan for 2009 by domestic manufacturers for domestic sale reached 335,700 cars. This is up an astonishing 185% from the 117,800 vehicles produced in 2008 according to data from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers 352
18、 312 253 210 84 290 88 11 16 21 3 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 200420052006200720082009 0 5 10 15 20 25 Number of HEVs soldNumber of HEV models Chapter 1: Executive Summary EV that is planned for later in 2010 in both Japan and the U.K. The top selling NEV manufacturer in the U.S. is GEM, which
19、is wholly owned by Chrysler Corporation, and has been selling golf cart style NEVs to municipal governments and gated communities since 1998. However, GEMs vehicles are generally unsuitable for regular city streets due to their open design. Elsewhere in the world, the Reva G-Wiz i and the Nice Mega
20、City are the low-speed BEVs most accessible to consumers, particularly in Europe. The most anticipated new BEV model is the highway speed Nissan Leaf, with production slated to start in late 2010. Batteries for EVs: Trying to Match the Power of Combustion It is no surprise that many of the EV manufa
21、cturers go beyond simply developing a supplier relationship with battery companies and actually develop joint ventures with their chosen partner. By developing a relationship to this level, auto manufacturers can design both the battery and the vehicle concurrently to help minimize integration issue
22、s with the additional benefit of being able to ensure adequate production of the batteries once the vehicle goes to market. Chapter 1: Executive Summary EV battery and vehicle manufacturers alike are adamant that future hybrids and upcoming PHEVs and BEVs will use lithium-ion battery chemistries. SB
23、I Energy predicts that in 2014, 90% of the hybrid and electric vehicle market will still be served by newer generation Ni-MH batteries, with only 10% of EVs selling with lithium-ion batteries. However, make no mistake, lithium-ion batteries are coming for EVs and they will eventually take over the m
24、arket. EV in reality, however, every single country except for Japan is an HEV importer. 2008 saw Japans best trade balance, with 83% of all hybrids produced being shipped out of country. Even as the second largest producer of HEVs, the U.S. is still primarily an importer of the vehicles. In 2009, i
25、mports accounted for 78% of the hybrids sold in the U.S. but overall, the percentage of domestically produced hybrids has grown with a CAGR of 43.4% between 2004 and 2009. Figure 1-6 HEV Manufacturing Facilities, by Country, 2009 Source: compiled by SBI. Thailand 1 Germany 1 China 2 Australia 1 Mexi
26、co 2 USA 8 Japan 7 Chapter 1: Executive Summary EV Environmental Protection Agency; compiled by SBI Energy. However, fuel prices dropped and the vehicle manufacturers became stubborn once again, with the result that passenger car efficiency standards in the U.S. have not changed in 15 10 15 20 25 30
27、 35 1975198019851990199520002005 Passenger CarsCAFELight TrucksCAFE Passenger CarsCombined Light Trucks EV and each stage wont really be picked up by consumers in mass quantities until the previous technology has matured and reached a significant portion of the market. Sales of HEVs, in terms of num
28、ber of units sold, has been higher in the U.S. than Japan for most of the first decade of the new millennium. But along with selling the most HEVs of any country in 2009, per capita use of hybrids in Japan shot up to 7.8% in 2009, way above the U.S. at 2.8% of market share in the same year. SBI Ener
29、gys analysis of the market indicates that buying a hybrid in the U.S. is still very much about making a statement concerning oil use and environmental conservationism. In Chapter 1: Executive Summary EV the fear that your battery in your BEV will not get you as far as you need in your driving and yo
30、u will be left stranded with no way to recharge the battery. One way to alleviate range anxiety is to develop a network of battery charging stations that rivals the ubiquity of gas stations for consumers to use. Another option is to work towards a “battery swap” model, where the consumer purchases t
31、he EV without a battery and then leases a battery that can be charged at battery swap stations that are partnered with the battery leasing company. Better Place, the Israeli firm at the forefront of promoting this model, believes that they can develop the appropriate supply of batteries and infrastr
32、ucture for about the same cost per month to the consumer as what they normally spend on gas. The Still Long Road to a Widespread Plug-in Vehicle Market Based on the period of time between the first hybrids appearing on the market in the late 1990s and their current sales now, SBI Energy does not exp
33、ect widespread acceptance of PHEVs to occur in the next four years. Based on usage characteristics of BEVs in the U.S. it is private businesses, individuals and municipal governments that are leading the charge on adopting pure electric vehicles. Even so, adoption by mainstream consumers of BEVs is
34、still at least a decade away. It took hybrid vehicles almost a decade to even get to one percent of world production for passenger vehicles. SBI Energy believes that it is the cost of the new technology (and custom battery packs) that is the major issue. A survey released in October of 2009 by the U
35、niversity of Michigan found that the probability of consumers purchasing a PHEV fell by 16% with each successive doubling of the extra price of the PHEV. Ownership Demographics SBI Energy estimates that there are just over 2.7 million hybrids on the roads in the world going into 2010. This is a dram
36、atic rise from the 15,000 hybrids on the roads (primarily in Japan) in the year 2000. In fact, from 2000 to 2009, HEV usage growth experienced a CAGR of 57%. EV the Light-Duty Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Tax Credit that has been in place since 2005 and the Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Ve
37、hicle Tax Credit which is strictly available for plug-in vehicles. There are also 18 states in 2010 that are offering some sort of financial incentive (tax credits, loans, rebates and rate reductions) for EV purchases. Japan has the most successful federal incentives for hybrids going into 2010, pro
38、viding up to $6,000 for the purchase of new hybrids. The first incentive offers Japanese consumers up to $4,500 to replace an inefficient model vehicle that is over 13 years old and the second incentive eliminates the acquisition taxes on any new hybrids. In addition to the federal incentives, there
39、 are 89 subsidies in 27 prefectures for EVs and 470 subsidies in 20 prefectures for hybrids. The UK is focusing on BEVs in a big way, offering up to 5,000 ($7,500) for purchasing plug-in electric vehicles. In countries such as Switzerland, Belgium, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Germany and Romania, hy
40、brid vehicles have reduced or no taxes added to the cost of the vehicle as an incentive. Other countries such as Italy, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Sweden and the Netherlands offer cash incentives of 750 euro ($1,000 USD) to 6,400 euro ($8,800 USD) for EV purchases. The Well to Wheels of Green for EV
41、s There is more to the environmental impact of a vehicle than just its fuel efficiency. The idea of the full life cycle of the vehicle, the so called “well to wheels” approach looks at fuel use over lifetime, manufacturing costs in terms of energy use and environmental impact, and recycling. Hybrids
42、 do well in this regard, with five of the top ten vehicles in the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 2010 list of greenest vehicles. If greenhouse gas emission control for vehicles does become a reality in the U.S., either at the state level or federally through the EPA, this w
43、ill almost certainly boost hybrid sales. HEVs possess the smallest carbon footprints of any fuel-based vehicles in the U.S. In fact, all of the first five spots for smallest carbon footprint are taken by hybrid vehicles. This page intentionally left blank EV the world populace is simply accepting of
44、 hybrid electric vehicles, giving them equal weight as an option in their car purchases. It is this unthinking acceptance of the hybrid vehicles place in the auto showrooms of the world, rather than as a thing of wonder and amazement that it has been up till now, that really, for the first time says
45、 that electric vehicles are mainstream. However, this admittance of place for hybrid vehicles in the hearts and minds of auto consumers still has not made its way to pure electric vehicles that have no gasoline engine at all. The uptake of these zero emission vehicles is still going to be “just on t
46、he horizon” for a few years yet. Scope This report, Electric Vehicle (EV) and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Markets Worldwide by SBI Energy, analyzes the manufacturing and sales of electric based passenger vehicles throughout the world with a particular emphasis on the United States and Jap
47、an as the leading markets for electric vehicles. The analysis will include definitions, current product offerings and market detail on the following segments: Road legal hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), both current offerings and anticipated models, that use gasoline, diesel or ethanol blends for the
48、 internal combustion engine (ICE). This includes road legal passenger vehicles and light duty trucks. Chapter 2: The Market EV the battery is charged through capturing energy from braking and from the ICE. Chapter 2: The Market EV mild hybrids, full hybrids, and plug-in hybrids. Mild Hybrid A mild h
49、ybrid vehicle, while it does have a battery pack (separate from the starter battery), cannot move the vehicle on its own. The mild hybrid contains all three of the following technologies: An start-stop feature that allows the ICE to turn off when the car is stopped and to smoothly turn back on when the car needs to move again Regenerat