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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe United Kingdom Oil but even allowing for normal slippage we expect the group to return a sentiment boosting uptick in volumes. Second, leveraging margin accretive barrel growth we forecast a 13% expansion in OCF by 2014 at constant oil prices driving an improvem
2、ent in FCF and lowering the cash breakeven of the group. Third, with the Majors placing a greater emphasis on frontier exploration we look to drilling activity to improve perceptions of the sustainability. However with market concerns deeply entrenched a sector-wide re-rating will likely require a s
3、ustained period of improved performance. Recognising that each company stands at a different point in its evolution, we prefer to play this thesis on a bottom-up basis through preferred companies as opposed to a top-down sector call. Valuation We use several earnings and cash flow valuation techniqu
4、es to value the oils. These include P/E relative, dividend yield, CROCI, discounted cash flow models, Free Cash Flow Yield and a cash-flow asset valuation based Sum-of-the-Parts. The absolute valuation of the sector presently appears attractive: (1) the group trades at an aggregate c35% discount to
5、SOTP with asset disposals made across the past year suggesting that our asset-valuation is conservative relative to the asset-market. (2) the group trades at just 0.78x 2013e Net Capital Invested, c15% below the multiple consistent with our forecast for 2013 CROCI/COC and at odds with our assessment
6、 of potential returns on reinvestment. On a market relative basis we observe that the 12 month forward consensus PE of the sector stands at c0.75x the market as compared to a trailing 7-year average of c0.8x. Furthermore, with the sector balance sheet robust and limited absolute downside we regard t
7、he sector as defensive in the event of any market pull- back. Aggregating our company target prices implies a 2013E sector target PE multiple of 9.0x and a sector target EV/NCI of 1.0x. Risks As ever, the key risk to our estimates is the outlook for commodity prices and crude oil in particular. Spec
8、ifically, we note exposure to evolving expectations for economic growth in the key consuming countries and to expectation around the behaviour of OPEC particularly in light of geopolitical tensions in the MENA region. Thus our forecasts are consequently vulnerable to moves in the price of crude abou
9、t our $113/bbl 2013 oil price estimate. As a sector whose functional currency is the US dollar, a sharp fall in that currency would be counter to our current expectations and could significantly undermine asset values and the local currency value of dividend payments. Considering company-specific fa
10、ctors we note that equity value will be sensitive to perceived changes in economic/fiscal conditions in key countries of operation, to the physical risks inherent in an asset intensive business, and to the risks borne of the environmental challenges directly associated with producing crude oil and g
11、as. 19 February 2013 Integrated Oils European Oils Daily Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure BG Group BG.L 1,143.34 (GBp) 18 Feb 13 7,14,15,17 *Prices are sourced fr
12、om local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Importan
13、t Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received
14、non-investment banking related compensation from this company within the past year. 15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it received non-investment banking securities-related services. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. R
15、egulators Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past yea
16、r. 17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds, Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the following issuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros. For disclosures perta
17、ining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http:/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately ref
18、lect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Sebastian Yoshida/Mark Bloomf
19、ield 19 February 2013 Integrated Oils European Oils Daily Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/London Historical recommendations and target price: BG Group (BG.L) (as of 2/18/2013) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,400.00 1,600.00 1,800.00 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10Nov 10Feb 11
20、May 11 Aug 11Nov 11Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12Nov 12 Security Price Date Security Price Date Previous Recommendations Strong Buy Buy Market Perform Underperform Not Rated Suspended Rating Current Recommendations Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating *New Recommendation Structure as of September 9,2002 1
21、. 03/11/2010: Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change GBP1,330.00 6. 26/07/2011: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,800.00 2. 07/01/2011: Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,500.00 7. 03/11/2011: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,850.00 3. 09/02/2011: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,600.00 8. 24/05/2012: B
22、uy, Target Price Change GBP1,800.00 4. 24/03/2011: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,725.00 9. 03/07/2012: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,700.00 5. 10/05/2011: Buy, Target Price Change GBP1,675.00 10. 01/11/2012: Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change GBP1,350.00 19 February 2013 Integrated Oils European
23、 Oils Daily Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share- holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro- jected dividend yield )
24、, we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes: 1. Newl
25、y issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between
26、-10% and 10% over a 12- month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period 38 % 55 % 8 % 46 % 36 % 51 % 38 % 55 % 8 % 46 % 36 % 51 % 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 BuyHoldSell European Universe Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship 19 Feb
27、ruary 2013 Integrated Oils European Oils Daily Page 10 Deutsche Bank AG/London Regulatory Disclosures 1. Important Additional Conflict Disclosures Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under the “Disclosures Lookup” and “Legal” tabs. Investors are
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