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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Periodical German downgrade to Sell K+S (SDFGn.DE),EUR35.66 Sell Price Target EUR31.00 Q1 13 results due May 14 Mid- downgrade to Sell Price (EUR) 35.66 Price target (EUR) 31.00 52-week range (EUR) 40.86 - 30.40 Market cap (EUR)(m) 6,826.3 FYE 12/31 2012A 2013E
2、2014E Revenue (EURm) 3,935 4,068 4,170 DB PBT (EURm) 729 717 686 Stated PBT (EURm) 767 717 686 DB EPS (EUR) 2.83 2.75 2.63 DPS (EUR) 1.40 1.20 1.10 P/E (DB EPS) (x) 13.0 13.0 13.5 Potash prices to remain under pressure; valuation too expensive, d/g to Sell We expect potash pricing to remain under pr
3、essure. The rate of potash demand recovery from 2013 is likely to be impacted by slow GDP growth, further subsidy cuts in India and the upcoming major CAP reform in Europe expected to negatively impact farmers incomes over the next few years. Meanwhile, global capacity will continue to increase whic
4、h should put operating rates under pressure. Valuation (12.9x 13E lower capacity, lower costs; consolidation and a severe winter. Virginie Boucher-Ferte (+44) 20 754-57940 virginie.boucher- Martin Dunwoodie (+44) 20 754-72852 Tim Jones (+44) 20 754-76763 12 April 2013 German higher potash price; d
5、elays, cancellations, closure of new potash capacities; lower costs; sector consolidation and a severe winter in Europe, US S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its
6、accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly,
7、to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This inf
8、ormation is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (F
9、inancial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deu
10、tsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to per
11、sonsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attrac
12、tive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reason
13、able. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passe
14、d on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=
15、in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Se
16、rvices and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datast
17、ream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distri
18、bution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold
19、 correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates EPSPerformance German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is deri
20、ved from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promo
21、tion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank est
22、imates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report i
23、s for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The nu
24、mbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Divide
25、nd yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and
26、 Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Comp
27、any accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or complet
28、eness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other clas
29、s of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E 12 April 2013 German as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targe
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