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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Periodical German FY13 estimates reflects special charge We cut our adjusted 2012 EPS estimates from E0.11 to E0.10. We incorporate the restructuring charge for 2013 in our estimates but adjusted EPS estimates remain unchanged at E0.11. Alexander Hendricks (+49)
2、 69 910-31928 5 February 2013 German on balance, market activity has not picked up much and remains on the low side. Eurex reported 129.9m traded contracts, or an average daily volume of 5.9m, up 8% year-on-year but down 4% month-on-month. ISE reached 58.3m contracts, ADV of 2.8m, up 3% year-on-yea
3、r and up 15% month-on-month. Xetra orderbook turnover was EUR94.6bn, down 12% year-on-year and up 39% month-on-month. Xetra trades were 15.8m, down 20% year-on-year and up 52% month-on-month. Overall activity remains on the light side, an improvement throughout the year is required to back current e
4、arnings estimates. Eurex activity supported by interest rate product Eurex ADV of 5.9m in Jan 13 compares to 5.5m in Jan 12, 6.1m in Dec 12 and 6.5m in full year 2012. By product category, index contracts reached 2.2m ADV, the lowest level by month since Jan 2007 (down 20% year-on-year and down 23%
5、month-on- month. Interest rate products reached 2.3m, up 53% year-on-year and up 25% month-on-month. Equity contracts reached ADV of 1.3m, up 12% year-on-year and down 4% month-on-month. By revenues, index contracts are the most important class (E0.52 per traded contract in 3Q12), followed by intere
6、st rate derivatives (E0.36 per traded contract in 3Q12). ISE ADV of 2.8m contracts compares to 2.7m in Jan 12, 2.4m in Dec 12, and 2.5m in full year 2012 (in 3Q12 average revenues per contract were E0.10 for European equity contracts and E0.15 for US equity contracts). Most important product, index
7、derivatives, continues to disappoint Deutsche Boerses most important product category, index derivatives, remain at low level. We estimate that these contracts accounted for more than 20% of group revenues in 2012 (E395m in index contracts, E834m in Eurex, E1,925m for the group). The current subdued
8、 activity, likely to be caused, or at least influenced by central bank initiatives that resulted in a reduction in market volatility, harms the groups short-term growth prospects. For full year 2013, we presently assume 6.4m ADV for Eurex, thereof 2.8m for index contracts, 2.0m for interest rate con
9、tracts, 1.6m for European equity contracts, and 2.5m for US equity contracts. January is a month of average importance, the next key month is March, which usually is the second most active within a given year. Alexander Hendricks (+49) 69 910-31928 5 February 2013 German difficulties in negotiating
10、 with mail labour unions and more competition in the European Express market Andy Chu (+44) 20 754-77650 andy- Tom Sykes (+44) 20 754-76418 Sylvia Foteva (+44) 20 754-13603 5 February 2013 German we expect good results Bilfinger will report preliminary FY12 results on 11 February at 7:30am cet. We
11、 expect a good set of results, in line with company guidance on EBITA and modestly above on net income. We have also updated our model for the acquisitions done over the recent months, resulting in a modest target price increase to EUR82 (80). We maintain our Hold recommendation. We expect good resu
12、lts Bilfinger has built up a good track record over recent years of delivering solid results and (over-)achieving its guidance (apart from problems in the Construction division, which we think is a thing of the past). We expect the same for FY12 numbers, where we expect sales of EUR8.5bn (guidance 8
13、.4), an EBITA of EUR464m (guidance 450- 470) and net income of EUR281m (guidance 265-275). and a positive outlook; further acquisitions as upside risk The company continues to grow, both organically and through acquisitions. While we acknowledge that the economic environment has some uncertainties a
14、t the moment, we expect Bilfinger to continue to grow its top line and profitability (also helped by the BEST streamlining program initiated last year). Also, the company issued a EUR500m bond in late 2012 for acquisitions; if the company could do further deals, there would be upside risk to our for
15、ecast. Given the pace of acquisitions over the recent months and the companys commitment to further deals, we see that as a realistic scenario. Valuation and Risk: maintaining Hold; new target price EUR82 Our valuation is based on an SOTP methodology, with peer multiples for the services and constru
16、ction activities and NPV for the concessions portfolio. Implied multiples (excluding any M risks Valuation is based on a target multiple approach and is backed by DCF (WACC 9%, terminal growth 2%). In detail, our unchanged E18 target price assumes that shares trade at the lower end of their historic
17、al valuation range (6.4-7.8x EV/EBITDA, 15.5- 22x P/E one year forward), which we consider fair in light of higher forecast risk and lower earnings growth as compared to the past. Key up-/downside risks: market share gains/losses, rising/falling prices, more/less efficiency gains at CTB, no further/
18、further delays of planned Elbe dredging. Gunnar Romer (+49) 69 910-31917 Michael Kuhn (+49) 69 910-36642 Jose-Francisco Ruiz Solera (+34) 91 335-5948 jose- 5 February 2013 German Hold maintained on balanced risk reward. Gunnar Romer (+49) 69 910-31917 Michael Kuhn (+49) 69 910-36642 5 February 2
19、013 German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be
20、distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective para
21、meters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its acc
22、uracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to
23、any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This inform
24、ation is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Fina
25、ncial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsc
26、he Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to person
27、sto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractiv
28、e companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonabl
29、e. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed o
30、n, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in
31、CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Servi
32、ces and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastrea
33、m, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates EPS German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This
34、 report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of person
35、s. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yiel
36、d: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Ser
37、vices and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastr
38、eam, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee
39、its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indire
40、ctly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in
41、local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance wi
42、th the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe S
43、ource: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E 5 February 2013 German as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. In August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choos
44、e not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur for “Hold“ rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of
45、our resources. Please visit our website at http:/ to determine the target price of any stock. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of
46、 price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Deutsche Bank may with respect to securiti
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49、cated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK and authorized by the BaFin. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. This report is distributed in Singapore by Deutsche