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1、CONTENTS Error! No text of specified style in document. November 2011 | .au | www.ibisworld.co.uk | IBISWorld Industry Report C2543-GL Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing November 2011 About This Industry . 2 Industry Definition . 2 Main Activities . 2 Similar Industries 2 Additional Resource
2、s 2 Industry Performance 4 Executive Summary 4 Key External Drivers . 4 Current Performance 4 Industry Outlook 7 Industry Life Cycle 10 Products aerospace engines, propulsion units, auxiliary equipment or parts; prototypes of aerospace products; aircraft conversion (i.e. major modifications to syste
3、ms); and complete aircraft or propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e. periodic restoration of aircraft to original design specifications). Main Activities The primary activities of this industry are: Aircraft conversion Complete aircraft or propulsion systems overhauling and rebuilding Deve
4、loping and making prototypes. Manufacturing aerospace engines, propulsion units, auxiliary equipment or parts Manufacturing aircraft The major products and services in this industry are: Large commercial aircraft Aircraft engines and engine parts Other parts and auxiliary equipment Rotorcraft and bu
5、siness jets Regional aircraft Similar Industries C2513-GL - Global Commercial and Service Machinery Manufacturing Establishments in this industry manufacture machinery including aircraft machine tools, instruments and appliances. C2523-GL - Global Computer Hardware Manufacturing Firms in this indust
6、ry manufacture computer equipment for aircraft controls such as navigational, guidance, aeronautical and avionics equipment. H4831-GL - Global Airlines Companies in this industry provide civilian aircraft transportation services. H4832-GL - Global Air Freight Logistics Enterprises in this industry p
7、rovide logistic freight services using aircraft. L6722-GL - Global Engineering Services Organizations in this industry engage in aerospace research and development (except prototype production). Additional Resources For additional information on this industry: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Air
8、craft Manufacturing November 2011 3 www.census.gov US Census Bureau www.icao.int International Civil Aviation Organization epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu Eurostat Air Transport World WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing November 2011 4 Industry Performance Executive Summary The Glo
9、bal Civil Aerospace Products Manufacturing industry experienced turbulent conditions in the past five years, but escaped the crisis with minimal losses. IBISWorld estimates that industry revenue will increase by 3.0%per annum over the five years through 2011. Revenue is expected to grow 8.1% during
10、2011, reaching $141.6 billion. Strong revenue growth in 2006 and 2007 was primarily attributed to buoyant demand from developing countries in terms of demand for air travel and replacements in aircraft fleet. This created a strong backlog of orders for major producers, which gave them a beneficial p
11、osition during the economic downturn. The industry was slowed by the delayed delivery of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The first 787 delivery occurred in the third quarter of 2011. A number of things, including a two-month workers strike in 2008, hindered production. Boeing moved many resources from ot
12、her programs to fast-track the delivery of the 787, which meant that the companys overall production declined in 2008. This had a ripple effect on smaller manufacturers of parts and caused industry revenue to contract in 2009. Over the next five years, the 787 will be a driver of revenue growth, as
13、orders numbers are high. IBISWorld estimates that revenue will grow by 2.7% per annum to $161.6 billion in 2016. Developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia will be the main source of demand in the next 20 years. Prosperous economic times and rising demand for travel will support so
14、lid industry growth. Key External Drivers The key sensitivities affecting the performance of the Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing industry include: Downstream Demand - Scheduled Air Transportation Passenger airlines in the scheduled air transport industry are major customers for civil aerosp
15、ace products. An increase in demand for air travel will lead to higher aircraft acquisitions. Industry Systems however, some form of electronics or mechanical training is preferred due to the reliance on computers and computer-operated equipment. WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Aircraft Manufact
16、uring November 2011 7 Industry Outlook Recovery is in sight for aircraft manufacturers as global conditions improve and airlines continue to upgrade their fleets. Industry revenue will rise by 2.7% per annum over the next five years, to reach $161.6 billion in 2016. Revenue growth will be based on s
17、trong demand for new aircraft technology, a significant backlog of orders, an increase in air passenger traffic, stabilization of crude oil prices, higher aircraft replacement and strong growth in the air cargo market. IBISWorld estimates that an increase in air passenger traffic will be the key dri
18、ver for industry revenue growth. In North America, growth in traffic is expected to increase as consumer and business sentiment recover. In Europe, air traffic passengers are expected to increase moderately over the next five years as general economic recovery boosts leisure travel. The Internationa
19、l Air Transport Association expects that economic revival in economies in Latin America, such as Brazil, will increase traffic growth in the region. The fastest growing regions will be in Asia, where economic growth and infrastructure improvements will lead to a rapid rise in passenger numbers. Boei
20、ng expects that global passenger numbers will increase by 5.0% per annum over the next 20 years. As demand for air travel takes off, airlines will return to stronger investment in aircraft, which will benefit the industry. Aircraft deliveries and oil Asia will constitute the largest regional market
21、for aircraft deliveries and will concentrate on large aircraft acquisitions such as the Airbus A380. In the Middle East, due to its geographical location, demand will consist of single-aisle fleet, which will provide the most cost-effective model for airlines in that region. Boeing expects that in t
22、he 20-year period between 2009 and 2028, major airlines will acquire 29,000 passenger jets to accommodate traffic growth and to satisfy the replacement market. During 2028, about 83% of planes in service will have been delivered after 2008. This represents a strong market for aircraft manufacturers.
23、 The price of oil is expected to return to historically high levels over the next five years, which will add pressure to airframe and engine manufacturers to design and produce more fuel-efficient products. High fuel prices will also cause airlines to acquire larger capacity aircraft with lower fuel
24、 burn per seat. High fuel prices will speed up the aircraft retirement cycle, as less fuel-efficient types of aircraft will move out of the market at a faster rate. This will force airline operators to acquire more fuel-efficient aircraft. The Middle East will benefit from high oil prices over the n
25、ext five years due to booming trade and oil revenue, which will create a surge in demand for small and mid-sized business aircraft. In addition, wealth in this region will become less concentrated, making it more affordable for consumers to use air travel. The need for airlines to accommodate for tr
26、affic growth and to replace older, less efficient aircraft as they age (typically linked with a fall in usage and increased maintenance cost) will drive industry revenue growth over the next five years. New or modified aircraft can be up to 30% more efficient. Aircraft are used for 20 to 30 years be
27、fore they are replaced. They are generally replaced according to historical patterns of aircraft delivery, but replacement may also be influenced by economic cycles and product developments. Over the next 20 years, however, newer models will replace the majority of todays fleet. The average passenge
28、r model will carry about 40% more passengers, and there will be about 12,000 more airplanes in circulation at any given point to accommodate the rise in travel demand. The growth in airfreight deteriorated in 2008 and 2009 as economic conditions restricted trade. IBISWorld estimates that internation
29、al freight volumes will show some recovery over 2011. Asias strong economic growth will be the main driver for this market, while the world move toward free trade will also provide benefits. Boeing estimates that freight volumes will triple over the next five years, leading to a larger freighter fle
30、et. The cargo plane fleet is forecast to grow from 1,940 in 2008 to 3,250 in 2028. Boeing also estimates that 33% of the freighter fleet will be large freighters, compared with 26% in 2008. IBISWorld estimates that industry revenue will increase by 6.3% in 2012. This growth will occur due to a susta
31、ined backlog of large commercial aircraft. In 2008, there was an order backlog of 7,429 large commercial aircraft and, based on current manufacturing capacity, this is sufficient to provide work for the WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing November 2011 8 next five years and be
32、yond. Industry revenue growth will benefit as demand improves and the US dollar depreciates. IBISWorld estimates that most airlines will maintain smaller aircraft to maximize efficiency and profits, and once the larger aircraft have been delivered to airline companies, production may revert to the A
33、320/330 and Boeing 737 aircraft. IBISWorld forecasts that the engine parts and components market will grow over the next five years. However, the shift toward low-cost producing countries will keep revenue growth steady over the next five years. Products and markets Business aircraft are productivit
34、y multipliers that allow passengers to conduct business en route in complete privacy, while reducing the stresses associated with traveling on commercial carriers. The industry is attracting new players into this segment. For example, Honda is expected to deliver its first a twin-engine business jet
35、 in 2012. The strong demand for business aircraft is partly spurred by the introduction of fractional ownership. Companies and individuals may purchase a set amount of flight hours from a business jet by purchasing a fraction of ownership interest on the aircraft. The jet is shared between the owner
36、s, who are eligible to use the aircraft for the number of flight hours purchased. This provides a competitive advantage for all parties as it provides the user with guaranteed transportation when required (usually within four hours notice) and upfront certain revenue for the firm. The aircraft engin
37、e and engine components market is expected to grow over the next five years as aircraft manufacturers deploy new aircraft (such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787) and as the need for fuel- efficient and environmentally friendly engines grows. The engine market is expected to grow and the success of
38、this segment will depend on the funding provided by various governments. A lot of the research and development uses government funds and military-developed technology is transferred to civil products. Consolidation is expected to occur in this segment as companies combine their resources to be more
39、economically competitive. Although Boeing significantly lowered its forecasts for global aircraft deliveries over the next two years, it still expects strong growth in China. Boeing expects that Chinese airlines could be running more than 4,600 large passenger jets by 2028. Boeing forecasts total vo
40、lume growth for Chinese air transport over the next two decades of about 7.2% per annum, which is more than the global average. According to Boeing, Chinas airlines will need 3,770 new aircraft worth $400 billion over the next 20 years. The establishment of the United Aircraft Corporation in Russia
41、in 2006 provided a boost for the industry. Air carriage demand in Russia and the rest of Central Asia is forecast to grow, and the country will require about 1,570 aircraft in 2028. However, the current capacity enables the production of 10 aircraft per annum, with only 1,210 functioning vehicles in
42、 2008. As a result, both Airbus and Boeing are expected to have an even greater involvement in Russia over the next five years. Airbus is expected to play a pivotal role in the Russian Civil Aerospace Product Manufacturing industry, given Russias 5.0% stake in the European Aeronautic Defence and Spa
43、ce Company. WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing November 2011 9 WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing November 2011 10 Industry Life Cycle This industry is in the mature stage of its life cycle. Life Cycle Stage Industry value added grew in line with real
44、GDP growth There has been some growth in new product development, though product groups remain clearly segmented Industry establishments increased, especially in developing countries All regional markets have been exploited by the industry Ownership of major players has not changed much over the pas
45、t five years IBISWorld believes that the Civil Aerospace Product Manufacturing industry is currently in the mature phase of its economic life cycle. The assertion is supported by data indicating industry value added to be increasing at a similar rate compared to the general economy. Industry value a
46、dded is estimated by IBISWorld to increase by 1.9% over the past five years. This suggests that the products in this industry are evolving at a reasonable pace, with technology innovations playing a prominent role in this industry. However, technological developments slowed and most changes have bee
47、n in the field of fuel efficiency. For example, greater fuel efficiency from smaller aircraft spurred rise in demand for Boeing 737 and Airbus A330 aircraft. In addition, Airbus and Boeing developed larger aircraft with a focus on efficiency, which is likely to have a favorable influence on value ad
48、ded over the next five years. Over the past five years, most aircraft introduced to the market have been variations of existing airplanes. The variants were introduced to reduce operating costs. For instance, Boeing is developing the 787 Dreamliner, a wide-body plane that would seat more than 200 pe
49、ople and have lower operating cost. In addition, the Boeing 747 aircraft underwent numerous modifications and a facelift since its first launch in 1969. IBISWorld believes that the business jet market is in its growth phase of its economic life cycle as product development and customer acceptance of these products are increasing. The rise in interest for personal business aircraft through affordable financial facilities and fractional aircraft ownership promotions provided an avenue for growth. This only