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1、November 16, 2009 Japan: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1 November 16, 2009 Japan Portfolio Strategy The M “In-Out” denotes Japanese acquisitions of foreign firms; “In- In” denotes domestic M Share of global GDP by region 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2、1800190020002020E2050E RoW Major developed economies BRICs Note: Major developed countries: Western Europe, US, Japan; BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, China; 2020 and 2050 are Goldman Sachs estimates. Source: OECD, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates As we have written in previous reports, som
3、e Japanese firms have re-oriented their business models to take advantage of higher growth in emerging markets.2 On the whole, however, Japan Incs presence in the strongest domestic demand markets in Asia of China, India and Indonesia, or “Chindonesia”, has been surprisingly low. For instance, of th
4、e total inward FDI flows into Chindonesia between 2005-2007, Japans share is merely 6%, compared to the US (22%) and Europe (18%) (see Exhibit 10). This may be partly due to the fact that most Japanese exporters have pursued a developed market-centered export strategy, focused on higher value-added
5、products. While this strategy was successful in the past when developed market domestic demand was dominant, we believe it may not be so successful going forward given our expectation that domestic demand growth in emerging markets will become increasingly superior. 1 See Peter Oppenheimer et al Nov
6、ember 4 report, The BRICs Nifty 50: The EM waiting for the capital-raising shoe to drop. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 16, 2009 Japan: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 15 Sector M as of November 13, 2009. Source: Factset, Toyo Keizai Financial data, Gol
7、dman Sachs Research calculations. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 16, 2009 Japan: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 17 Exhibit 17: High IRR ( 20%) stocks Code Company GS Ra- ting Price Market Cap. bn IRR % EV bn Entry EV/ EBITDA X Exit EV/ EBITDA X P/B FY0
8、9E X TOPIX Free- float % Listed Subsidiaries Flag 5423 Tokyo Steel Manufacturing B 1,10917278.1%861.46.2 50%- 6330 Toyo Engineering N 3106070.9%341.97.2 1.0 55%- 7251 Keihin N 1,35910167.7%933.28.9 0.9 40%- 8028 FamilyMart N 2,48524363.6%1483.27.6 1.2 50%- 7230 Nissin Kogyo B 1,3418847.3%883.88.9 1.
9、1 40%- 4817 Jupiter Telecommunications B* 81,00056245.7%8746.216.1 1.5 - 9412 SKY Perfect JSAT Corp N 40,75014045.4%2145.516.1 0.8 35%- 6702 Fujitsu B* 5481,13444.2%2,1518.211.7 1.4 75%- 1605 INPEX Corporation B 763,0001,79935.4%1,9232.12.1 1.3 35%- 7259 Aisin Seiki B 2,22065433.2%1,0175.68.9 1.0 45
10、%- 7545 Nishimatsuya Chain B 8856232.9%495.08.2 50%- 7296 FCC B 1,5888432.2%845.28.9 1.2 40%- 4676 Fuji Media Holdings B 125,90029830.9%2926.616.1 0.6 70%- 5803 Fujikura N 44416029.2%30610.211.7 0.9 65%- 6665 Elpida Memory N 1,26224828.9%668-12.715.0 1.0 80%- 5706 Mitsui Mining initial debt capped a
11、t lower of 80% EV or 2X interest coverage Dividends to private equity None (unless debt is paid down in full before 5 years) Exit multiple Sector average*1: EV/EBITDA (FY1E) multiple Investment horizon 5 years Sales growth Analyst forecasts2 EBITDA growth Analyst forecasts2 Capex growth Analyst fore
12、casts2 Companies Non-financials Note: *1: Universe is TSE1 listed companies and the sector classification is based on Goldman Sachs Japan s 22-sectors. *2: Where Goldman Sachs estimates are unavailable, we have extrapolated sales growth and EBIT margins using the average of the company s prior three
13、 years. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Limitations of the model Cost of debt. We apply a fixed cost of debt of 5% each year across all companies, regardless of the leverage assumption used. We acknowledge that in reality the cost of debt will vary both across companies and across differen
14、t leverage assumptions. However, we find that as an isolated effect, the cost of debt has a minimal impact on the IRR. Exit multiple. We find that the IRR is highly sensitive to the assumed exit multiple. In our analysis we have used the FY1 forecast sector average EV/EBITDA multiple. However, we ac
15、knowledge that the actual and assumed multiples may differ, depending on both the strength of equity markets in five years and on the strength of the company at the time. Real estate holdings. Since it is difficult to estimate the market value of real estate holdings, we have not included unrealized
16、 gains on property in our calculations. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 16, 2009 Japan: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 34 RegAC We, Kathy Matsui and Hiromi Suzuki, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our pers
17、onal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profi
18、le provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine
19、the stocks percentile ranking within the region s coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year s estimate over current year s estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA
20、, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month vol
21、atility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.
22、 Goldman Sachs Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Compend
23、ium report: please see disclosures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribu
24、tion Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 30% 53% 17% 51% 52% 43% As of October 1, 2009, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,674 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; sto
25、cks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Compendium report: please see dis
26、closures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following
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28、t making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 16, 2009 Japan: Portfolio Strategy Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strat
29、egy Research 35 The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst s area of coverage. A
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37、s of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA
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39、ciation or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determin
40、ed by a stock s return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy
41、 and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential ret
42、urn or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential,
43、price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http:/ The analyst assigns one of the following
44、coverage views which represents the analyst s investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group s historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group s historical fundamentals and/or va
45、luation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group s historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group s historical fundamentals an
46、d/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldma
47、n Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be
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