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1、CONTENTS Error! No text of specified style in document. November 2011 | .au | www.ibisworld.co.uk | IBISWorld Industry Report X9001-GL Global Tourism November 2011 About This Industry . 2 Industry Definition . 2 Main Activities . 2 Similar Industries 2 Additional Resources 3 Industry Performance 4
2、 Executive Summary 4 Key External Drivers . 4 Current Performance 5 Industry Outlook 8 Industry Life Cycle 10 Products these areas were not as badly affected by the global recession. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) also reported positive air transport data among its members since
3、September 2009. According to Deloitte, hotel occupancy rates began to improve late in the year in some key tourist destinations across the globe. Many regions experienced poor performances in their domestic tourism markets as the economic recession deepened, particularly in major developed countries
4、. IBISWorld forecasts that industry revenue will increase by 4.9% per annum over the next five years, as the global economy recovers, to a total of $1.1 trillion. However, there are clouds gathering on the horizon. The recovery from the recession has been slow and unemployment in most developed coun
5、tries remains high, while governments have been slashing spending to reduce debts. There are fears that some economies may sink back into recession in 2011 or 2012 if financial shocks continue or if government cutbacks are too stringent. At the same time, civil unrest in the Middle East has caused o
6、il prices to increase sharply in early 2011. High oil prices may hinder economic growth and demand for industry services. Many airlines have increased fuel surcharges in the first half of 2011 to protect profits from high fuel prices. Key External Drivers The key sensitivities affecting the performa
7、nce of the Global Tourism industry include: Conflagrations/Wars - Regional Wars Actual wars or threats of violence, terrorism etc, is a key factor adversely affecting international tourism. Damage caused by natural disasters Like conflicts, natural disasters disrupt infrastructure and create uncerta
8、inty in the areas affected. However, natural disasters do not tend to go for long periods of time, thus allowing faster recovery for a country or region that is affected, unlike episodes of conflagration. Economic Indicators - Consumer Sentiment Index Changes in consumer sentiment have a significant
9、 effect on travel intentions and bookings. Consumer sentiment is influenced by factors such as a person having a heighten fear about losing their job or having reduced working hours imposed on them (with an associated reduction in income) during a recession.At the regional and individual country lev
10、el, the industry is sensitive to changes in international visitors, patterns and movements. Changing consumer preferences and new, exciting and emerging tourist destinations makes the tourist industry one of the most competitive in the world. Per Capita Disposable Income WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Tou
11、rism November 2011 5 Changes in per capita disposable income are a major factor driving changes in international travel for business or other purpose. These changes are determined by economic growth and variances in country-to- country exchange rates, which can alter per capita income levels in anot
12、her country significantly. Tourism - Inbound - Total The industry is sensitive to changes in international visitors, patterns and movements. Current Performance IBISWorld expects the Global International Tourism industry to generate $856 billion in revenue during 2011, which represents more solid gr
13、owth of 4.5% as the global economic recovery gains traction, stimulating a rise in international business and holiday travel demand. Over the five years through 2011, it is estimated that International Tourism industry revenue will rise at an annualized 1.7%. Revenue growth was constrained over the
14、period by the decline in travel during most of 2009 as the recession adversely affected travel demand. Late in the year, however, a strong rebound in demand occurred across the Asia- Pacific and the Middle East, areas that were not as badly affected by the global recession. The UN World Tourism Orga
15、nization (UNWTO) forecasts that international tourism will improve in 2011, with the number of tourist arrivals increasing by 4.2% during the year. However, soft economic conditions will contain growth. Many developed countries have observed a return to economic growth, but unemployment remains, bus
16、iness conditions are weak and governments have begun slashing expenditure. The poor economic conditions will discourage some holidaymakers from international travel during 2011. Unrest in the Middle East, and Egypt in particular, will also affect the industry. Egypt is a popular international destin
17、ation and the civil unrest in the early part of 2011 resulted in tourist attractions being closed and governments warning their citizens not to travel to the country. At the same time, the unrest in Libya has caused the price of oil to rise substantially, and some airlines are increasing fuel surcha
18、rges to protect profits. Higher international airfares will also discourage some potential travelers. Global recession and demand As an industry highly reliant on high levels of disposable income, the global financial crisis hurt the industry significantly by affecting developed economies in North A
19、merica and Europe the most. According to the UNWTO, preliminary results for calendar 2009 indicated that there was an overall decline of 4.3% in international travel for the year. Global airline traffic for the first 11 months to November 2008 rose 2.2%, after a 7.4% rise in 2007. Europe in particul
20、ar - as a region with high disposable income, many proximate countries and relaxed travel restrictions - is a very significant market for the industry, with about half of industry revenue being drawn from the region. The UNWTO points out that the poor performance in the region was due to negative gr
21、owth in northern and western areas, and no growth in its southern and Mediterranean regions. Other regions, however, were not as dramatically affected. Over the whole of 2008, all regions apart from Europe reported positive growth. For international travel in 2008, according to the UNWTO, global arr
22、ivals rose only 2.0% to 924 million. However, with the rising global economic recession, growth in the first half-year was 5.0%, but fell by 1.0% in the second half. Growth in international arrivals in the second half-year was negative in Europe (3.0%) and Asia (3.0%), but increased by 1.0% in the A
23、mericas, 4.0% in Africa and by 5.0% in the Middle East. Far stronger growth in international arrivals to China occurred at the time of the 2008 Beijing Olympics in August 2008, but subsequently fell. Resurgent growth The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported positive air transport
24、data had from among its members since September 2009. Furthermore, according to Deloitte, hotel occupancy rates began to improve late in 2009 across some key tourist destinations. For 2010, the UNWTO reported that international tourism rose 6.7% to a total of 935 million. However, the recovery remai
25、ns uneven. Growth was fastest in emerging economies, up 8.0%, while international tourist numbers in advanced economies only improved 5.0% during the year. Asian tourism increased 13%, while the World Cup in South Africa helped boost tourist numbers in Africa by 6.0%. During the year, the Middle Eas
26、t also reported 14% WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Tourism November 2011 6 growth. In comparison, international tourist numbers increased by just 3.0% in Europe and 8.0% in the Americas. Growth in outbound tourism was fastest for emerging economies, but also increased for traditional markets including Aus
27、tralia (up 9.0%), Japan (up 7.0%) and France (up 4.0%). As economies in the Asia-Pacific (China and India in particular) continue to take the fast track toward economic success, their citizens are enjoying the benefits of higher levels of disposable income. These rising incomes have maintained trend
28、 throughout the past five years, despite the drama of the global recession. As a result, international tourism revenue (as an avenue for disposable income use) from the region is growing in proportion to the rest of the world. Since international tourism still occurs most often within a consumers re
29、gion, these dollars are expected to be reinvested into the area and to maintain these growth trends. Before the global recession In 2007, the UN World Tourism Organization figures indicated international tourist movement growth of nearly 7.0%, and IBISWorld projected real growth in International Tou
30、rism industry revenue of about 3.0%. Continued subdued growth in travel by Americans was estimated due to forecast low economic growth. Stronger growth occurred in all other regions, especially with favorable currency movements in a number of areas against the US dollar. The International Tourism in
31、dustry experienced a relatively good year. Particularly strong growth continued in China (especially in the lead-up to the 2008 Olympics), India, Eastern Europe, the Asia-Pacific and South America. During 2006, the key issues that affected international travel included terrorism, the potential sprea
32、d of the avian flu and increased oil prices. Additionally, interest rates continued to rise in many countries, which dampened growth in real household disposable income. However, during 2006 the International Tourism industry is estimated to have experienced slightly lower real revenue growth of abo
33、ut 3.0%. According to World Tourism Organization information, arrivals in Africa increased 8.1%. The Asia-Pacific region also grew strongly at 7.6%, due to accelerated growth in Thailand and the Maldives after the impact of the December 2004 tsunami, and in South Asia, which increased 10% and was as
34、sisted by significant growth in India. Arrivals in Europe increased 4.0% as Germany took advantage of the FIFA World Cup. Arrivals in Italy and Spain also grew strongly. Growth in arrivals in the Middle East increased by 4.0%, but were affected by geopolitical tensions in the region, including the I
35、srael-Lebanon war. Arrivals to the Americas region grew 2.0%. This largely resulted from strong growth in the United States, offset by weaker growth in both Canada and Mexico. Strong growth continued in Central America (6.1%) and South America (7.2%), with the strongest performing nations including
36、Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Paraguay and Peru. WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Tourism November 2011 7 Global international tourist arrivals Year Americas Million Asia-Pacific Million Europe Million Total Million 2004 125.7 144.2 424.4 765.1 2005 133.5 155.4 441.5 806.8 2006 136.2 167.2 459.2 846.0 2007 14
37、8.0 185.4 488.0 908.0 2008 147.8 184.1 485.2 917.0 2009 140.6 180.9 461.5 882.0 2010 149.8 203.8 476.6 910.0 SOURCE: UN WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Tourism November 2011 8 Industry Outlook Over the five years through 2016, the International Tourism industry looks uncertain to
38、 maintain a recovery as Europes debt crisis continues to worsen. Eastern Europe, China, India (as a highly skilled and low labor-cost country), the Asia-Pacific region, northern and southern Africa, and South America are expected to be the fastest growing regions in terms of international arrivals.
39、Europe accounts for the largest proportion of international tourism due to ease of travel in the region. Thus, the debt crisis is expected to hurt international tourism in the short term, before continuing its recovery via emerging nations. This is related to both personal and business trips that ar
40、e following changing migration, investment and trade flows. Over the five years through 2016, industry revenue is expected to increase 4.9% per year to $1.1 trillion, with growth of 3.0% expected in 2012. Changing landscape Over the next five years, China will emerge as the largest single country fo
41、r outbound tourists, followed by India in the longer term, as economic growth and incomes expand rapidly. As a result, the Asia-Pacific region will surpass advanced economies by 2015, according to the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). However, Europe will remain as a mature market. It has the h
42、ighest proportion of international arrivals and will have a good source of outbound travelers as the euro strengthens, and as West Europeans in particular travel to relatively cheaper destinations than their traditional ones in Europe i.e. they will move away from France, Italy and Spain to North Af
43、rica, South America and the Asia-Pacific region. Subdued growth is therefore projected for the more mature travel markets of Europe and North America, particularly as the United States is forecast to experience lower than average economic growth throughout the five years to 2016 as it continues to w
44、restle with its many internal economic challenges. This will affect not only growth in visitor arrivals to the United States but also the number of Americans traveling overseas. The wider use of new aircraft with a capacity of about 800 passengers will continue to lower real average international ai
45、rfares and improve economies of scale in air transport. There is also expected to be a continuing expansion of global low-cost airline carriers that will also stimulate travel demand, particularly to new destinations. The sea and river cruise industry will grow strongly, particularly from the United
46、 States, and as the population ages across most developed countries. Online technology, particularly direct bookings with operators by travelers, will continue to affect the retail travel agency industry. Online travel bookings will overtake bookings made through travel agency shop fronts during thi
47、s period. The use of online technology as a communication device will also lead to greater access regarding information retrieval, whether by social or “objective“ sources. As portable technology advances, access to travel tools when out of ones home country is expected to proliferate healthily as w
48、ell. ITB Berlin found that in 2010-11, 40% of international travelers already owned a smartphone with internet and email access. However, international data access via mobile devices still incurs significant costs, which will have to drop before smartphone use truly takes off in the international to
49、urist sphere. While tourist travel is expected to grow, many trends are expected to remain the same. The purpose of visits will still hold the same proportions, with holiday travel remaining dominant, ahead of visiting friends and family and other non-business purposes. Travel destinations that will be most popular to consumers will be countries in proximate areas. Future growth IBISWorld forecasts are based on the assumption of no significant increase in geopolitical tensions, major wars or outbreaks of contagious dis