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1、 Freedonia Focus Reports International Collection Lubricants: China December 2011 Executive Summary Overview of Lubricant Products and Markets National Demand by Lubricant Products and Markets | 2005 - 2010 - 2015 Regional, World Demand by Lubricant Products and Markets | 2010 National, Regional and
2、 World Economic Indicators The National Supply Base and Selected Producer Profiles Resources | National, Regional and World Sources Lubricants: China 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. About This Report Sources Lubricants: China is based on World Lubricants, a comprehensive industry study published
3、by The Freedonia Group in July 2011. Its findings represent the synthesis and analysis of data from various primary, secondary, macroeconomic and demographic sources including: firms participating in the industry government/public agencies national, regional and international non-governmental organi
4、zations trade associations and their publications the business and trade press The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated June 2011 the findings of other industry studies by The Freedonia Group. Specific world, regional and domestic sources are listed in the Resources section of this publication
5、for reference and to facilitate further study of the product, country and region. Scope Lubricants: China reports demand for lubricants in metric tons, and for the purposes of the report, China excludes Hong Kong and Macau. Copyright and Licensing This publication is protected by copyright laws of t
6、he United States of America and international treaties. The entire contents of this publication are copyrighted by The Freedonia Group, Inc. A full description of copyright and subscription or licensing provisions is available on the final page of this publication. Lubricants: China 2011 by The Free
7、donia Group, Inc. Table of Contents Section Page Executive Summary . 1 Chart 1 | Executive Summary 1 Overview of Products 2 Table 1 | Relevant Standard Industry Codes for Lubricant Production . 2 Production . 3 Formulations 3 Lubricant Products . 5 Table 2 | Lubricant Products 5 Overview of Markets
8、. 9 Demand Drivers and Constraints . 9 Lubricant Markets 9 Table 3 | World: Key Economic Indicators 14 China . 15 Economic Trends 15 Table 4 | China: Key Economic Indicators . 16 Supply and Demand . 17 Lubricant Demand by Type. 18 Table 5 | China: Lubricant Demand by Type (thousand metric tons) . 18
9、 Engine Oils. 18 Process Oils 19 Hydraulic Fluids and Metalworking Fluids. . 19 Other. 19 Formulations. 20 Lubricant Demand by Market. 20 Table 6 | China: Lubricant Demand by Market (thousand metric tons) . 20 Motor Vehicle Aftermarket. 20 Manufacturing. 21 Other. 22 The Supply Base. . 22 PetroChina
10、 Company Limited. . 23 Sinopec Lubricant Company. . 24 Royal Dutch Shell plc. 24 China in Context 25 Regional Economic Trends . 25 Table 7 | Asia/Pacific: Key Economic Indicators 26 Asia/Pacific: Supply and Demand 27 Chart 2 | 2010 Lubricants Demand by Country, Region and World (million metric tons)
11、 30 Resources 31 Lubricants: China 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. This page has been intentionally left blank. Lubricants: China 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. 1 Engine Oils 46% Process Oils 15% Hydraulic Fluids 8% Metalworking Fluids 6% Other 25% Motor Vehicle Aftermarket 37% Manufacturing 37
12、% Other 26% China 48% Australia 3% Japan 13% South Korea 5% India 12% Other 19% Executive Summary Demand for lubricants in China totaled 6.5 million metric tons in 2010 and is forecast to increase approximately 30% to 8.4 million metric tons in 2015, driven by rapid industrialization. It is expected
13、 that China will become the worlds largest consumer of lubricants by 2015. Product Segmentation Engine oils represent the largest share of demand and the fastest projected growth, due largely to a rapidly expanding motor vehicle park. Demand for higher-quality engine oils is likely to increase along
14、 with tighter emissions standards as well as preference for vehicles that require these lubricants. Production in rubber and plastic industries is growing at nearly double-digit annual rates, supporting strong advances for process oil consumption. Market Segmentation The motor vehicle aftermarket is
15、 the largest demand segment with the highest forecast growth, due primarily to the rapid expansion of the motor vehicle park. Manufacturing activity in China is expanding faster than in any other major economy in the world, which is driving lubricant consumption. Domestic Production Major domestic p
16、layers include PetroChina Lubricant Company and Sinopec Lubricant Company, subsidiaries of state-owned oil companies. Together, they account for half of the lubricant market. Though domestically produced engine oils are generally behind foreign competitors in terms of grade, technological advances a
17、re expected to improve domestic product quality. Regional Position Demand for lubricants in the Asia/Pacific region was 13.5 million metric tons in 2010. Chinas top two producers are the leading suppliers to the region, due to Chinas large share of regional demand. Total world demand for lubricants
18、was 36.7 million metric tons in 2010. Asia/Pacific 2010 Lubricant Demand China 2010 Lubricant Demand Chart 1 | Executive Summary Lubricants: China 2 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. Overview of Products Lubricants are typically a consumable component of machinery systems or processes that reduce fr
19、iction between moving parts or between tools and materials. Reduced friction, in turn, increases the wear resistance and extends the life of such parts or tools as well as suppresses operating temperatures. The flow of lubricants in a system also provides the function of temperature control and impu
20、rity removal. As a result, lubricants play an important role in the design of machinery for general durability, longer uptimes, narrower tolerances between parts, higher operating speeds and temperatures, and better energy efficiency. Lubricants are also the medium for power transfer in hydraulic sy
21、stems, and still other types are added to various materials to enhance their characteristics, such as the plasticity of a polymer. Table 1 | Relevant Standard Industry Codes for Lubricant Production System Codes Descriptions ISIC Rev.4 (United Nations) International Standard Industry Codes 1920 2029
22、 Manufacture of refined petroleum products, including oil-based lubricating oils or greases, including from waste oil Manufacture of other chemical products not elsewhere classified (includes: lubricating oil additives) GB/T 4754-2011 (China) National Industry Classification 251 266 Manufacture of r
23、efined petroleum products Special chemical product manufacturing (includes: additives) NAICS/SCIAN 2007 (NAFTA) North American Industry Classification System 324110 324191 325998 325199 Petroleum refineries (includes: refining crude petroleum and manufacturing lubricating oils and greases) Petroleum
24、 lubricating oil and grease manufacturing All other miscellaneous chemical product and preparation manufacturing (includes: manufacturing synthetic lubricating oils and greases) All other basic organic chemical manufacturing SIC (USA) Standard Industry Codes 2869 2899 2911 2992 Industrial organic ch
25、emicals, not elsewhere classified Chemicals and chemical preparations, not elsewhere classified Petroleum refining (includes: lubricating oils and greases produced in petroleum refineries) Lubricating oils and greases (blending, compounding, and re-refining of lubricating oils and greases from purch
26、ased materials) Sources: UN Statistics Division; National Bureau of Statistics of China; US Census Bureau; The Freedonia Group, Inc. The different types of lubricants vary in terms of their principal properties: flow characteristics, volatility, lubricity, cleanliness, toxicity and the capacity to o
27、perate within certain temperature ranges. Lubricants are composed primarily of base oils, additives and water. Generally, a finished lubricant is about 80% Lubricants: China 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. 3 base oil by volume, although this percentage varies depending on the characteristics of th
28、e base oil used and the desired performance characteristics of the lubricant. Production Lubricant production features two distinct processes: refining and blending. The first step in the manufacture of lubricants, petroleum refining, is a highly complex process with significant barriers to entry, i
29、ncluding high fixed costs, large economies of scale needed to achieve profitability, and other pressures for continual improvement in technology and processing techniques. Lubricant blending, on the other hand, is typically a much less capital-intensive endeavor focused more on product formulation o
30、perations. Capital spending on the lubricant blending side of operations generally consists of modernization and environmental concerns. Many lubricant suppliers have pursued vertical integration as a means of ensuring adequate and high-quality raw material supplies. More than 700 companies particip
31、ate in the global lubricant industry, including independent firms and integrated oil companies, both privately and publicly owned. Eight companies Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Exxon Mobil Corporation (US), BP (UK), Chevron Corporation (US), PetroChina (China), Sinopec Corporation (China), Total
32、(France) and Lukoil (Russia) each supplied over one million metric tons of finished lubricants in 2010, collectively accounting for over half of the global market. All of these firms are integrated oil companies for whom lubricant production is only a small part of their overall business. Many small
33、er competitors are being forced out of the business or acquired by larger companies due to rising costs and the challenge of complying with increasingly stringent environmental standards. The smaller companies that are able to successfully compete generally do so by focusing on specific niches ignor
34、ed by larger companies, by offering value-added products and services, and by responding to customer needs and market changes faster than do larger players. Formulations For the purpose of this report, lubricant formulations are derived from either petroleum base oils or nonconventional basestocks.
35、Petroleum (mineral-based) base oils are those produced from virgin petroleum. Nonconventional basestocks include synthetic, vegetable-based and re-refined basestocks. Petroleum base oils account for the overwhelming majority of basestock demand, but the product Lubricants: China 4 2011 by The Freedo
36、nia Group, Inc. category is losing market share relative to other types of basestocks. Petroleum lubricants are relatively low-cost, offer good performance and are widely available. Petroleum base oils consist of two types naphthenic and paraffinic depending on the type of crude oil from which they
37、are manufactured. Paraffinic base oils are generally classified using the American Petroleum Institute (API) standards and are divided into Group I, II and III by viscosity index and the concentration of saturates and sulfur. Naphthenic base oils have low viscosity indices, pour points and wax conte
38、nts. These products are used to manufacture lubricants notably, process oils in which color stability and low temperature flow are key performance factors. Consumption of nonconventional lubricants is generally the highest in countries using advanced technologies requiring high-quality lubricants or
39、 where strict environmental regulations or other specific government policies have increased demand. Synthetic basestocks are manufactured by chemical synthesis or organic reaction and are classified as API Group IV, V or VI base oils. Synthetic basestocks offer characteristics suited to demanding a
40、pplications, such as low volatility, hydrolytic stability, low temperature fluidity and greater high-temperature performance. Re-refined lubricants are produced through the blending of lubricant additives with used oil (primarily engine oils) that has been recycled. As technology advances, re-refine
41、d products are approaching and even exceeding some virgin petroleum base oils in both high-quality appearance and performance. Vegetable-based lubricants are formulated from a wide variety of oils, including rapeseed/canola, cottonseed, soybean, castor and linseed oils. Advances in lubricant additiv
42、e technology have greatly enhanced the performance and overall viability of vegetable-based products. Additives are blended into basestocks to enhance their inherent characteristics or to impart new performance properties. Because of differences in basestock quality, additives are used to ensure tha
43、t lubricants with identical properties can be made from non-uniform basestocks. Finished lubricants can have additive loadings ranging from 1% to as much as 25% of the total fluid. Loading specifications depend both on the desired properties of the final product and on the basestock used. Synthetic
44、basestocks typically require high additive loadings, while some highly-refined petroleum base oils require much lower levels. Lubricants: China 2011 by The Freedonia Group, Inc. 5 Lubricant Products World demand for lubricants totaled approximately 36.7 million metric tons in 2010. The engine oils p
45、roduct segment represented approximately 50% of total world demand in 2010, while some 14% of demand was attributed to process oils. Hydraulic fluids and metalworking fluids respectively accounted for 10% and 5% of demand. Other product segments such as greases, gear oils, automatic transmission flu
46、ids and universal tractor fluid represent the remainder of demand, some 21% in 2010. Table 2 | Lubricant Products Lubricant Type Notable Sub-Types Major Applications Engine Oils Conventional Synthetic Motor Vehicles Aviation Marine Process Oils Rubber Oils White Oils Electrical Oils Ink Oils Plastic
47、 and Rubber Production Electrical Equipment Leather and Textile Production Inks and Coatings Food and Beverage Processing Industries Hydraulic Fluids High Pressure Low Pressure Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Petroleum and Natural Gas Production and Mining Agriculture Construction Electri
48、city Generation Metalworking Fluids Cutting Fluids Drawing Compounds Electrical Discharge Machining Fluids Chip Removal: Machining, Grinding, Honing Forming: Coining, Drawing, Forging, Rolling, Piercing, Stamping, Cold-Heading Quenching Protection and Storage Other Greases Gear Oils Automatic Transm
49、ission Fluids Universal Tractor Fluids Agriculture Construction Equipment Industrial Motor Vehicles Natural Resource Extraction Source: The Freedonia Group, Inc. Engine Oils. Engine oils similar to transmission fluids, gear oils and greases are necessary to properly maintain motor vehicles throughout their useful operational lives. Technological advances in engine design, the formulation of longer-lasting lubricants and increases in oil filter technology contribute to a global trend toward lengthening drain intervals (the tim