《INDUSIND_BANK_(IIB.IN)：OW：_4QFY13_-_A_STEADY_SHIP-2013-04-19.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《INDUSIND_BANK_(IIB.IN)：OW：_4QFY13_-_A_STEADY_SHIP-2013-04-19.pdf（12页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、 abc Global Research 4QFY13 earnings at INR 3.07bn were in line with our estimates, driven partly by one- time expansion in margins as benefits of equity issuance trickled in. Steady loan growth and stable asset quality continued with steady uptick in CASA deposits. The markets reacted positively to
2、 the results with the stock closing c 7.2% above Tuesdays close. Key highlights: Loan book continued to grow at a steady 26% YoY with the retail wholesale mix also remaining stable at 51:49. CV segment, however, saw a meaningful slowdown in growth to just 2% QoQ and 21% YoY. After a modest H1FY13 on
3、 the CASA front, savings deposits built good traction with a 14% QoQ growth in Q4FY13 on the back of 16% QoQ in 3QFY13. CASA mix now stands at 29.3% vs. 28% at the end of H1FY13. Margins expanded 24bps QoQ to 3.7%, helped partly by substitution effect of equity issuance in 3QFY13, a fixed rate retai
4、l book and higher CASA ratio. As a result, cost of funds declined 48 bps QoQ vs just 24bps QoQ decline in yields on loans. Asset quality remained stable with GNPL at flat at 1.03% and NNPL at 0.31%. Earnings Outlook: We continue to expect a steady 28-30% loan book CAGR over the next two years. This
5、along with steady improvement in CASA and high fixed rate retail book will lead to further margin expansion, while asset quality should broadly remain stable. Overall we expect earnings outlook to remain robust with expectations of 34-35% EPS CAGR over FY14-15e. Valuations: IIB trades at 12-mth forw
6、ard multiples of 2.7x PB and 16.6x PE. With fundamentals continuing to remain impressive in the current tough macro environment and a quality top management, we continue to maintain our 12-mth target PE and PB at 15x and 3x, respectively, thereby, arriving at our target price at INR523 (INR504), imp
7、lying a potential return of 17%. We maintain our OW rating on the stock and believe that its superior growth, asset quality and profitability profile will act as supports for its premium multiples. Key downside risks: 1) Macro headwinds (2) Higher than expected slippages Overweight Target price (INR
8、) 523.00 Share price (INR) 450.10 Forecast dividend yield (%) 0.7 Potential return (%) 16.9 Note: Potential return equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, plus the forecast dividend yield Mar 2012 a 2013 p 2014 e HSBC EPS 17.19 21.43 27.30 HSBC PE 26.2
9、21.0 16.5 Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 8.4 7.2 30.2 Relative (%) 10.0 12.9 19.1 19 April 2013 Tejas Mehta* Analyst HSBC Securities CASA momentum also picks up Continue to expect margin expansion over the next two years, asset quality to remain stable Retain OW rating and roll forward target pr
10、ice to INR523 (INR504), implying potential returns of 17% 2 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) Commercial Banks 19 April 2013 abc Year to 3/2012a3/2013p 3/2014e3/2015e P momentum likely to be maintained in medium term -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
11、3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Corporate loans y/y%Consumer loans y/y% Total loans y/y% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 Savings DepositsDemand Deposits CASA Source: Company data, HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC Margins rebound helped partly due to gains from equity raisi
12、ng and rest due to decline in funding costs as fixed rate book comes into play Core fee-income growth moderating slightly due to lower third party distribution fees, but balance sheet linked fees growing well 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13
13、1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Yield on advancesCost of deposits NIM (RHS) - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fee income (INR bn) Fee Income - YoY% (RHS) Source: Company data, HSBC Source:
14、Company data, HSBC Asset quality stable except for a large corporate account that was fully provided for during the quarter 12-month Rolling PE - PB - 1 2 3 4 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 - 20 40 60 80 Coverage (%) (RHS)Gross NPL
15、 (%) LLP/avg loans (%) 0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x Rolling P/EAvg 5 yr P/E Avg 2 yr P/ERolling P/B (RHS) Avg 5 yr P/B (RHS)Avg 2 yr P/B (RHS) Source: Company data, HSBC Source: Bloomberg, Company data, HSBC 4 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) Co
16、mmercial Banks 19 April 2013 abc Loan growth y/y: Retail division, CVs and 3Wheelers slowing down Loan growth y/y: Corporate loans -50% 0% 50% 100% 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 CVUV 2W3W Ca
17、rs Construction equipment -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 Large corporateMid corporate Loan to small business Source: Company data, HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC Loan mix, yields Segment wise Gross NPL (Q4
18、FY13) 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% Corporate loans Consumer loans Yield on advances (RHS) - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 CV UV Const. 3W 2W Cars Others CFD Corporate Gross NPL (%) Source: Company data, HSBC Source: Company dat
19、a, HSBC Slippages (annualised) ratio Gross NPL(%) Trends by loan type 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 Slippages Ratio (annualized) - 1 2 3 4 5 6 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 - 2 4 6
20、 8 10 12 14 CVUVConst. Equip 3W2WCars CFDCorporateOthers (RHS) Source: Company data, HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC 5 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) Commercial Banks 19 April 2013 abc IndusInd Bank: 4Q and FY13 results summary (INR bn) Q413 y-o-y %q-o-q %FY13py-o-y % Income Statement Interest income 18.23
21、23%1%69.8330% Interest on Advances 14.62 22%0%56.1033% Income on Investments 3.31 23%2%12.8319% Interest on Balances with RBI see also the tables below. Under our research model, for stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppt above and below our hurdle rate for Indian stocks of
22、11%, or 6-16% around the current share price. Our target price of INR523 suggests a potential return, including dividend yield, of 17%, which is above the Neutral band. We therefore reiterate our Overweight rating on the stock. IndusInd: Valuations and risks summary (INR) PE multiple Weight 50% PE-b
23、ased TP PB multiple Weight 20% PB-based TP Weight 30% DCF value Weighted Target Price Downside risks New 15x 554 3.0x 585429523Macro headwinds; Higher than expected slippages and credit costs; Slower than expected margin expansion Old 15x 580 3.0x 596315504 Source: HSBC 8 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) Comm
24、ercial Banks 19 April 2013 abc Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expr
25、essed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Tejas Mehta, Sachin Sheth and Todd Dunivant Important disclosures Equities: St
26、ock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. Given the
27、se differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon; and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investm
28、ent opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below. This report addresse
29、s only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports sectio
30、n of this website. HSBC believes an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their re
31、commendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its conte
32、nts from the rating. In any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities Stock ratings HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of retu
33、rn calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stoc
34、k to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 pe
35、rcentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between thes
36、e bands are classified as Neutral. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review, expected retur
37、ns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change. 9 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) Commercial Banks 19 April 2013 abc *A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stoc
38、k has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However, stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past months ave
39、rage of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stocks status to change. Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities
40、 As of 18 April 2013, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Overweight (Buy) 44% (34% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Neutral (Hold) 38% (34% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Underweight (Sell) 18% (29% of these provided with Investment Banki
41、ng Services) Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities Indusind Bank (INBK.BO) Share Price performance INR Vs HSBC rating history Recommendation HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; CA HSBC B
42、ank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; JP HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; EG HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; CN HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijin
43、g Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesbur
44、g; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC Mxico, SA, Institucin de Banca Mltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA Banco Mltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA;
45、 HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR Issuer of report HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited Registered Office 52/60 Mahatma Gandhi Road Fort, Mumbai 400 001, India Telephone: +91 22 2
46、267 4921 Fax: +91 22 2263 1983 Website: This document has been issued by HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited (“HSBC“) for the information of its customers only. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of I
47、ndia. If it is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sub
48、scribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expr
49、essions of opinion are those of the Research Division of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in th